Fozz

The GFS is now showing 18” here in RI. I’m very used to telling myself that it’s just a model, and isn’t realistic to expect. Is this really happening??

The second blizzard in February 2010 had a lot of mixing, especially early on before that amazing redevelopment.

Nope. I’m still in RI, though I’ve sometimes visited my old home in MD and worked remotely from there in recent months. But I’ve been paying plenty of attention to this system and this setup because it reminds me of some of my best weather memories from the past. So far SNE is looking to be in an equally good spot for this storm. Still though, I’ve been told that I still have a mid-Atlantic mentality, and that’s probably because I haven’t been there long enough to get spoiled by their climo

One of the best joys about being a winter weather enthusiast (or weenie, lol) in the mid-Atlantic is seeing a nice snowstorm, especially in December, after many years of warmth and misery. And the fact that these snow droughts often end in December makes the ending even more spectacular, and they also tend to be accompanied by stretches of deep winter. December 2002, December 2009, and December 2013 (in the northern and western areas) were all great examples of what I’m talking about, and all of them later went on to become excellent winters. I’d love for the same to happen this month, with this storm.

At the very least, this seems to be the best December setup since December 2009. I just couldn't believe what I was seeing in the days leading up to that storm.

I think I see what you're saying... that if it got captured a bit later then maybe we'd be looking at widespread 18"+ totals?

Looks like an excellent hit here.

Not long ago the big storm next week was looking like a SNE rainstorm.

My pack is basically gone now. Just down to patches.

Even the normal 10:1 map looks just like December 2009 in the mid-Atlantic. Absolutely crazy run.

Taken verbatim it would rival December 2009 in many spots.

We can definitely afford a slight NW bump at this point. Looking great so far, and it would be the best storm since I moved here.

What a breathtaking run. It really is the perfect scenario.

Thanks, that is very helpful to know. Seems like the latest GFS has a strong enough 50/50 low for this storm to work for them.

I think there's a decent chance that it delivers, simply because we have a solid -NAO which we haven't seen in a long time. That might just be enough for the mid-Atlantic in mid-December, otherwise it would be a long shot.

I need a stronger shovel.

So without that block and 50/50, a negative tilt at H5 around the MS valley would normally bring another cutter and crappy rainstorm? Thank goodness for the NAO.

WOW... awesome hit... my wish for a double digit storm might just happen before Christmas if this turns out well. Amazing what a -NAO with a strong 50/50 (which starts as Monday's appetizer) can bring.

LOL that’s funny. Forecasts were a bit better in MD. I remember a Winter Storm Watch for 3-6”, and as I was listening on my NOAA radio they were downplaying the chance of a major storm, but still said there’s a good chance of 4”+, which of course was good enough for me. And then the day before the storm it was upgraded to a warning for 4-8” and had the Baltimore area in the bullseye. We ended up with 8” in Lutherville where I grew up, with 7.4” in BWI. And I especially enjoyed it because it was so much more snow than the entire previous season, and the snow cover lasted a long time, long enough to be followed by a moderate ice storm the following week (it would’ve definitely been all rain without the snowpack to cool the surface). So many snow days to enjoy, and PDII was still months away.

If everything lines up right, an event like 12/5/2002 might be within reach. One of my favorite moderate snowstorms growing up. This -NAO is the best that we’ve seen in years, especially after so many years of crappy Atlantic setups. A cold 5-8” throughout the I-95 corridor, just before the holidays, would be such a nice break after all the turmoil of 2020, and after the pathetic non-winter of 2019-20.

Pivotal weather has them for free.

With the strong Atlantic blocking in place, I’ve had a feeling that we’d get something good. Of course we are still a week out, but this is New England so these storms tend to find a way to work. In any case, I’d be thrilled with just half of what the Euro is showing.

Wow excellent. This for next Thursday?

When was the last sustained -NAO in a winter month? March 2018?

Depends on other factors. If it's one HECS in an otherwise warm winter, while getting 4 moderate storms happens in a sustained cold period, then yeah I'd agree. But if each of those 6" storms melt in a day or two, I don't see that as any better than just getting one HECS.