stadiumwave

Shared this several days ago on another forum: Saw something interesting. My #1 analog in my blend for DEC was 1984. Here is Cansips DEC forecast on top with DEC 1984 underneath MJO in DEC, 1984 was 3,4,5,6...blue line Very similar to the MJO forecast for this DEC although we might get to phase 7 sooner. Late DEC, 1984 had a SSW. JAN MJO went into COD, then 7,8,1,2. JAN, 1985 - 500mb: Certainly I'm not saying we have a replica of JAN, 1985 coming but I am wondering if a late DEC SSW prediction & colder JAN is a distinct possibility?? The progression of DEC is eerily similar. Here is DEC 15-20, 1984: Here is 0z GEFS for DEC 18: The SSW in 1984 occurred on DEC 29. Progression of strat from DEC 20 on is below: Graph is from this great paper on that particular SSW: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337872697_Dynamics_of_the_Arctic_polar_vortex_during_the_19841985_sudden_stratospheric_warming END OF POST ________________________________________________________ Now since that post CFS is predicting a SSW at the end of month & Simon Lee pointed out on twitter that the EPS is predicting a weakening of PV. just something watch right now.

Is @Isotherm OK? I haven't seen one post from him on any forum.

To demonstrate what a worthless waste of time it is to post weeklies past 15 days: New NOV 30 Old NOV 30

Well JB is JB...lol. I don't follow much. Uses too much hyperbolic language for me which will drive a literal person insane. The remnants of its life (coldest subsurface waters) is surfacing & the supply is empty after that.

Very much so

The coldest waters down in subsurface are in the process of surfacing but yes the Nina is dying. After the coolest waters surface in region 3 we will warm after that. Both are correct. Just look at the subsurface progression. Subsurface is warming. Coolest waters are moving to surface. Then...its over. Anyone looking at that Subsurface progression & thinking this Nina is getting stronger is smoking crack....bad....and in total denial.

Guys, this Nina is dying fast per latest sub-surface:

This La Nina is dying. Who would've thought a month ago? Lol @ CFS strong Nina forecast

Yea it is interesting. I did the winters a year after minimum, since that is where we're at, since 1950:

Weak signal though. Anything outside 10 days is really low skill anyway.

I'm starting to lean away to fast start to winter. After a good 3-4th week of NOV expect a less favorable pattern. PV will strengthen until MJO wakes up. If it wakes up PV will take hits again mid-DEC leading to weakening, disruption, possibly a full blown SSW. JAN into 1st half of FEB may be the best potential before ridging takes over after that.

Sorry, did not read any other post. Just chimed in & saw your post.

Euro Weeklies...if it verifies close then likey. Like...good through DEC 10

Most La Ninas have a -PDO average for DJF. Don't forget that 2010-11 was -PDO & cold. Bottom line: +PDO winters do not automatically = Cold winter -PDO winters do not automatically = Warm winter It's more complex than that.

Right. BTW, was not saying this winter is going to be 2010-11. There are several years that serve as analogs for NPAC SST's in OCT: 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1971, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013. It's just amazing how different all those winters were...some polar opposites. BTW, 2007 is probably #1 match, but probably means zippo at this point. I'm just not a fan of typical climo, cookie-cutter predictions. It's not really yhat simple, which you of all I know...knows this.

Of course, but then there's this: So many factors can make a massive difference.

Later the better.

I would not focus too much on NPAC SST's in early OCT. Rosby Wave trains in OCT/NOV often lead to great fluctuations in NPAC sst anomalies. Example...OCT 7, 2013: BTW, very close match to now. So is 2010. So is 2011. All of those years have wildly different winter outcomes. Here is NPAC SST by DEC 30, 2013: Point is early OCT NPAC SST's probably give no clue to winter. If NPAC looks like that mid-DEC then different story. It could go any number of ways right now.

For everyone wanting to make a big deal about NPAC SST's in OCT like every year. Remember NPAC SST's are subject to large fluctuations in OCT/NOV. I give you SST's for October 7, 2013: October 7, 2021...CURRENT: Rosby wave activity in OCT/NOV leading to large fluctuations in NPAC SST's in short time periods, should prevent conclusions about winter using NPAC SST's at this point

Unfortunately NMME page does not have 500mb.

It's guidance. I wouldn't get too worked up yet at every detail. I would make note of a very strong cold source advertised. Keep on mind these models actually are decent only on a monthly forecast at the beginning of the month being predicted. If you've been following just about every model has not been doing well on the 2nd month out. But for sure the teleconnections stink on that update. CFS took a step in a good direction but has a longway to go for a good winter pattern.

NMME Page...updated. Little change most notable is colder over western Canada. NMME Older NMME New CFS Older CFS New Canadian Older Canadian New NCAR Older NCAR New NASA Older NASA New

Euro Seasonal Update....ugly NEW DEC OLD DEC NEW JAN OLD JAN NEW FEB OLD FEB Certainly it's not gospel but I do not like the trend. Hopefully NOV improves.

Throw those in & OCT is not as currently forecasted. My blend is not a forecast. I'm simply showing which analogs come up with the best OCT forecasted match. I then simply shared what that blend would look like for winter. Ironically the blend is all 2nd year -ENSO. It's interesting & is info for others to take into account when putting together a winter outlook. Just another slice of the pie.