CAPE

It doesn't look any worse than the last 2 runs. I honestly wish snowfall mean maps didn't exist. Has little value unless there is a persistent, discrete threat showing up on guidance inside of day 10 IMO.

The BOMM is da bomb!

Hopefully we have a legit weak Nino now and the atmosphere is beginning to respond. Let it drive from here on out.

A few days in the good phases then let it die and get out of the way.

Yes it does and it is a good look. Go look at the op run at the very end and notice how those lower heights get into the 50-50 position.

I will go along with this. Of course, this may very well be a meteorological impossibility.

Many times when we have our 'epic' HL patterns, the 50-50 low can result from smaller vortices being shed off of a parent TPV (sitting in the vicinity of Hudson Bay), rotating down and getting 'trapped' underneath the NA block.

from bluewave <<<< Yes, I remember. The fire hose NP Jet this year reminds me of La Niña. Notice the Niña-like ridge holding on stubbornly north of Hawaii. This is creating a stronger jet further north than we typically see during an El Niño. So we continue to have these fast NP jet issues over North America. The latest EPS means continue this for at least the next week to 10 days. >>>> That Hawaii ridge flattens/weakens dramatically towards the end of the run, and the NPAC trough moves into a more favorable position. That trough is so deep and expansive though.. really want to see it weaken/retro a bit more, otherwise it could inhibit development of a -EPO, and also tend to keep a flow of PAC air into the western third of Canada. Kinda living on the edge with the current projected PAC look on the EPS. At this point I think it will retrograde and weaken enough as to not be a thorn in the side of the (desired) pattern evolution.

What would you say is the most impressive(might also say worrisome) feature on that h5 panel? Personally, I would like that to become a bit less impressive going forward.

I did miss that, but I am glad you also brought that up. I mean, the guy is knowledgeable and all and I welcome his insights, but damn, give it a rest. We get it.

I get the feeling 40/70 wants to make it abundantly clear to us mid atlantic folks that this winter will NOT be a 2009-2010 redux.

I agree. Given the strat warming event resulting in multiple discrete vortices, we want one of those daughters on our side. I say this a lot, and will continue to say it even after the miss south in Dec- Give me a stout -NAO and a vortex rotating around underneath it. I will take my chances with that look all winter. As we heard ad nauseam in this thread yesterday, weak Ninos tend to favor Miller B events, so this combo can help offset the tendency for NE to cash in while we see scraps.

Love seeing it building heights in the NA. The latest weeklies have legit blocking from from around the 25th onward, which becomes epic heading into early Feb.

You mean like that crushing TPV dropping into Hudson bay? Suppression! Congrats NC.

tl;dr

Not sure what you are getting at here exactly. I think we all understand that Miller B events tend to be favored in weak Nino years, but certainly that is not exclusively the case. But more to the point, the author of the discussion referenced in that post simply suggested that above normal precip may be favored in the Mid Atlantic region during weeks 3-4, and given the setup a winter storm is possible for the east coast. What specifically are you asking be cited?

Who ya kiddin'? Nature of the beast. A day ago most here were convinced the pattern would likely suck for the duration of winter. A day later there is widespread optimism over the advertised "favorable" pattern change. Epic even. Look at all the snow chances on the ops! But then worry sets in. We could get fringed. How long could this change last? Might be transient. Maybe we should look for flaws in the pattern change that is still more than a week away... Uh oh.

I really like the PV dropping south this run. Its also more intense/expansive. We have a daughter vortex on our side, and she will surely shed off some...granddaughters?

EPS seems to be bringing the epic pattern from the weeklies forward in time. 12z is pretty damn sweet at the end.

More intense TPV dropping south towards Hudson Bay by day 13 on the 12z EPS, with +heights forming near GL.

Just goes to show how quick things can change in this biz. We were mired in a Pacific puke shutout pattern with no end in sight and now we have the EURO teasing with a potential KU inside of 10 days.

I have been cautiously optimistic, but given how quickly things seem to be changing in our favor over the last day or 2, mid month might be our first legit threat window in what seems like forever. But yeah beyond that the h5 looks are beginning to look very palatable.

Only 9 days to get a 50-75 mile shift. Admittedly thats going to be difficult.

Smokes eastern NJ up through SNE.

Go back and look at what it had at 0z lol. Seems there might be some middle ground there.