CAPE

I like where the advertised pattern is heading in general towards the end of the month. It will become a bit milder for a time. Guidance indicates continued disruptions of the SPV, with some warming and height rises. Just need to keep the SPV on the weak side- a SSWE is not required for a good response in the HL troposphere to allow cold air delivery into the midlatitudes. Looking at the teleconnections on the EPS, AO stays slightly negative, NAO trends negative, and this is clearly seen at h5 on both the EPS and GEFS in the LR with heights building across Greenland into Baffin. We shall see if it materializes. The PNA trends neutral, and WPO/EPO positive. So it looks like while we lose the big coupled blocking ridge out west, we will see improvement in the NA, hopefully in the form of a legit -NAO (blocking ridge) towards the end of the month. I don't think the PAC is going to turn hostile- this looks to be more of a relaxation. Ofc time will tell, lol.

Well, looks like it's getting there...

29 here currently. Low temps should be realized early, then probably rise towards daybreak.

0z 12k NAM has 1-2" of snow for the eastern shore late Tuesday, maybe pushing 3 in S DE and down near SBY lol. Defo deserving of....

If the EPS is correct, we lose the big WPO ridge and the -EPO for a time, and with that we lose the mechanism for cross polar flow. I don't see a flood of Pacific air as much as the cold air source we have had being cut off for a time. There is still a PNA ridge out west in a favorable location, and we are seeing indications of ridging in the NA. Now if the PNA goes negative and we don't see positive heights continue building into the NAO space, then there will be a definite warm up, but not like that is entirely unexpected at this point. If the Pacific is going to "betray" us in the long term, we in trouble going forward any way you slice it.

Dude we are always playing with fire one way or another here south of 40N loI. I would take my chances with that look, esp given it looks like heights are building into the NAO domain.

Thats awesome!

Biggest trap game in modern NFL history. They just beat the unbeatable 8-0 Pats convincingly, and now face the 0-8 Bengals, with a (who the fucck is that) at QB. If they are truly a good team, they take care of business and win easily.

Looks a tad Nino-ish. I like the look up top, and the -heights over the Aleutians. Could be a really nice h5 pattern rolling this forward as we edge closer to Dec.

High of 42 here after a low of 23. 37 currently. Nice warm up tomorrow.

Hopefully that barely existent wave on the front ends up a bit more robust, and things fill in a bit. 1-2"?

Somebody give me a weenie like.

With no real trailing wave on the front, it looks like the usual cold chasing precip to me. Models do this a lot- show brief frozen on the tail end- and it is normally a total zero. Probably the best shot at seeing some flakes flying is with some instability snow showers as the legit cold moves in behind the front.

IIRC there was warming/significant disruption of the PV leading up to the early Dec storm, but not a SSWE. It resulted in a severely suppressed storm track due to southward displaced "daughter vortices" and some transient/bootleg ridging in the NAO domain.

Heading north?

Ventrice mentioned the GEFS is hinting at a SSWE with those big positive h5 height anomalies over Siberia. Maybe we can time this right so NC and S VA can cash in on another early Dec winter storm!

EPS in the MR has the big blocking ridge over Chukchi(displaced WPO), then it weakens in the LR, and shifts the PNA ridge a bit eastward. EPO looks to trend neutral/positive. AO looks slightly negative, with a neutral NAO(maybe trending more negative at the end). PV looks to remain fairly perturbed as we continue to see TPV lobes rotating down. I am down with that look heading towards the end of the month. Should be generally chilly for the EC if it verifies.

23 here.

I always thought you were an older dude for some reason. I guess mattie did too.

Corona is a terrible beer, which is bad enough, but their completely annoying, awful commercial- blah blah blah, a corona gets its lime.. just makes me want to punch someone- mostly anyone who thinks it is an actual beer worth consuming. Much rather drink a Miller lite. @stormtracker

My sis and her husband are headed to Deep Creek for the weekend for her birthday. She is looking forward to the cold and some snow.

She gone lads.

Some flakes were flying here when I left for work at 6:15. 36 F

It's a classic. Fun to show to my students, who are engineers. They love it.

Reading Isotherm's winter forecast reminds me of this..