CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Sometimes one must simply ignore EJ posts. Check that- pretty much every time.
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Still to be determined how that part evolves. My guess is the UL develops its own area of precip but does not capture the coastal low, so the good deform precip ends up just to the NE, and then there could be a dead zone in between where only light precip falls (my yard).
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I was referring to the ULL pass and the heavy snow it develops lol. Way outside of its wheelhouse though.
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Exactly. It's a decent enough look to think it can become more favorable going forward. I am pretty happy just seeing the lack of SE ridging on the means, lol.
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12z NAM at range.
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Not sure I would characterize it as concerning. We are talking about early-mid Dec in the MA. Looks like mostly seasonal temps.
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I always forget about that lol. Oh well. Off run!
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Haow bout dem' Cowboys!!! Poor Skippy Bayless
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Fwiw here is the 12z Euro ens mean snowfall map.
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Exactly. Air mass is very marginal at the surface. Down this way precip will have to fall at a good clip to cool the column. That happens to an extent on the 12z Euro, but much more so to our NE.
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Baby Steps? Lol better than last run. Ens mean looked better too. Has 1.0" imby!
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Just a bit stronger with the ridging N/NW of the upper low this run.
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Let the "trend" continue...
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It's all backside love with the ULL.
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If the 12z Euro is correct Philly into most of NJ is in for a pummeling.
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Happy T-day all. Having a cheeky glass or 2 of wine before heading to a small family gathering for more serious alcohol consumption, and a little food too. I feel so British.
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I think another subtle difference in these discussions is the "sudden" component. A SSWE is different than a SWE irt the impacts apparently.
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This is almost not believable. I had a 2 hour "stop" there coming back from NE in the summer. You livin' right.
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Front end fail, and again too warm at the surface for any frozen with the upper low. Idk if that can trend stronger/colder. Generate its own cold air?
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@showmethesnow Here is temp and height data from the EURO. Goes out 10 days and includes 150 mb level. https://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/
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That's my general takeaway yes. I was looking for some updated QBO data but this would seem to correlate with whats happening at 10-30 mb level, re- weaker zonal wind propagating downward.
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This is pretty interesting. The tercile-category anomaly of the lower-stratospheric polar vortex, defined by the 100 hPa 60°N zonal-mean zonal wind, has been used as a diagnostic for the behaviour in the ‘coupling layer’ between the stratosphere and troposphere. https://simonleewx.com/polar-vortex-forecasts/
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Hopefully the CFS is as crappy a model as we all believe it to be, lol.
