CAPE

But I feel jipped. Euro just gave you more pretend snow than me.

Major snowstorm for GA and SC. Right where we want it.

Negative tilt phase job. NE pummeling. Hopefully the scraps for our area don't become crumbs.

I mean, damn.

Its an evolving situation.

I'll not be a deb today. 12z GFS gave my yard a total 2" of snow from 2 different events! And the second one looks like some sort of inverted trough deal. Those always trend better.

Nice NA look on that panel. Indication of a trough near 50-50 with the +heights displaced off of the maritimes, and a ridge pushing into Baffin Bay.

We need some snow before the TPV drops the Arctic hammer late next week. Snow followed by brutal cold would be awesome.

Me, worry? lol But yeah I think the really good look will move forward in time. EPS is moving that way pretty quickly. GEFS is too- better western ridge axis location last couple runs towards D15, and has been pretty gung-ho with legit NA blocking.

PD3 look?

EPS weeklies look solid. A bit too much WAR still with western ridge axis a tad too far west through about mid Feb, then h5 look gets very good beyond that. -AO/NAO is prominent throughout.

Recent runs of the GEFS should make Psu happy. Lots of red up top and across northern Canada in the LR. No blue ball!

Agree. The 6z run had a pretty sweet looking west based -NAO towards the end, the 12z run is more east based. I like the general position of the ridge axis out west too. Overall, things are progressing rather nicely.

Certainly some impressive blocking showing up on most guidance. Again, I never buy the stable block idea until it's happening in real time. As long as there is some mechanism for persistence (PNA related or whatever else), multiple relatively short lived or semi-stable episodes might work. Right now all we have is transient ridging, which is mostly a function of PV lobes rotating through the NAO domain.

Nice Spring morning out there. 56 degrees, heavy rain, with a few frogs hopping across the back roads, lol.

So whats up with the feared pattern change back to Pac puke that had many here in a mini panic a couple days ago? Barely a blip on the guidance now. Muted. Not happening. As a few of us predicted.

Mean ridge axis out west is not bad either on the GEFS in the LR.

Probably. At least we have some guidance insisting that it will develop. 6z GEFS has a beautiful west based block. After one bad week, so does the CFS. I'm not convinced until I see it in near real time. We shall see. eta- GEPS is moving in that direction too.

I know you know this- it can rain in winter here anytime, regardless of the advertised long wave pattern on any LR guidance.

The EPS continues to indicate that the pattern will undergo a minor reshuffle in the NPAC, mostly associated with the TPV. The feature that bothers me the most(now) and on the advertised look after the minor reshuffle, is still the WAR. If the western ridge axis were further east, the higher h5 heights hanging off the maritimes would likely weaken/shift further east. If you read my posts over the past few days, I said what we really need is a reshuffle that would result in the W ridge axis shifting further east, but if it goes right back to the same alignment, then the struggle to get a significant wave to track underneath will continue. I don't really see any reason why a 'real' -NAO would suddenly pop like the CFS is depicting, so we pretty much agree there. This isn't that far from a really good h5 look though- just need a minor phase shift in the longwave pattern. I blame the Nino "fail" for the warts. A flawed pattern is likely what we are going to have going forward, which is typical, but it could be much worse.

Couple shots from Terrapin Park today. Had a day off and wasn't about to spend it bangin' my head against a wall in the LR thread lol.

One is for tracking potential storm threats- more of a medium range thread One is for LR pattern disco- AO/NAO/PNA/EPO/MJO/QBO...

Yeah and as we have discussed, it remains to be seen if a stable block ever develops. I know we both have doubts, as does Showme I think. Since the Nino is essentially a fail, the late winter -NAO teleconnection doesn't really work. My optimism for legit NA block developing was based largely on that idea. I think we are probably going to have to settle for something transient/ semi-stable, maybe a few days or a week, and hope a significant wave moves up during that period.

Its really not a legit block. With the TPV rotating around and continuously spinning off lobes, transient ridging pops in the NAO domain, but then gets displaced by another vortex rotating through. That said, do this enough and eventually something could time up-a southern wave moving across with a vortex near 50-50 and +heights above it.

Yeah I am taking a break now lol. We try. Let it burn. I am heading out to Terrapin Park and then to visit a local brewery/tap house or 2. Then later I will watch the frozen ground transform into a soft, muddy mess again.