CAPE

Nice overview based on the current data/climate guidance. A lot has to be in our favor for an average to above average snowfall season in the MA, outside of the western highlands. At this juncture, there really isn't much to like in that regard. Almost every major driver/index looks as if it will be the antithesis of what we need here. We had this situation last winter, and the worst possible outcome resulted. You mentioned the solar min, and I concur that is a nebulous influence, and will certainly not offset all the other factors that may align to inhibit the development of any persistent HL blocking. What we hope for are the inevitable variations in a mostly "bad" pattern, and a bit of luck to take advantage for a fluke event or 2. Since we had zero of that last winter, maybe we are due a little.

You should get used to this possibility unless you plan to relocate. Or be more realistic with expectations and use median instead of mean.

We have had several good storms this summer, and quite a few with frequent lightning. I had that one back in July that blew a tree down. Sometimes we can go through a whole season with nothing but lame garden variety storms.

Not sure what round it is but it can stop anytime now lol..I think it finally has. 3.4" 2 day total of 4.85" eta- had another storm after midnight, so the 'severe' event total is 3.9", and 5.35" since Wed night.

I know this is not DC- but I am basically on the same latitude and at low elevation- and I can think of 3 warning level events right off the top of my head in the last 2 Nina winters. The one in March I think did have some blocking, but the other 2 didn't. They were both coastal scrapers with 10" plus at the beaches, about 6 here, and little to nothing for DC. Just dumb luck I suppose. eta- being further East/NE does help in a Nina with catching the edge of a Miller B sometimes. Happened here in Dec 2010 (the storm never to be mentioned). Got 5" or so from that, and there was 10+ a few miles to my east, but that period did feature a -NAO IIRC.

This one is a banger. Sounds/feels like bombs dropping out there.

Hearing more thunder to the west. Lets see what round 2 can do.

Looks like a wrap for here. Lots of rumbles and a couple of booms, and 0.30" of rain. After last night's big storm, this is perfectly fine with me. 1.75" since last evening, and no wind impacts.

Sounds exactly like what I had last night. Way more fun than today.

Barely on the edge of this one. Some impressive lightning and booms of thunder though. Looks like Easton may get it pretty good.

Blocking would be lovely, but as we all know, its pretty rare during winter lately. We could see something transient ofc, but if this winter is to feature a colder period, I am inclined to think it will probably require a favorable EPAC for a time, something like Jan of 2018. No one in DC area should expect more than a low end warning event or 2 at best, and hopefully a few 1-2" deals. That would be a major win after the debacle of last winter.

QBO won't make much difference. Its impacts are nebulous imo, and even more so in Nina. The AO/NAO is pretty much guaranteed to be positive for the winter months based on persistence and general correlation to Nina. Not to say we wont have a few periods where it is less positive or neutral. Maybe the solar minimum will save the day(winter).

The thinking is more linear as it moves eastward towards the coast, and reading the discussion from Mount Holly they think the most likely place for a tornado is in Cecil over into Newcastle in DE up into SE PA. Possibly some interaction with the warm front lying across that area, backing the flow some is my guess. Bigger overall threat will be damaging straight line winds, with fairly strong winds aloft and decent Dcape. Bowing segments generally produce straight line winds but can also produce tornadoes as vorticity sometimes develops on the north/south end of the line. How far north are you?

Yeah a CanSIPS Dec followed by a CFS Jan and Feb would be pretty decent. A month from now we can reanalyze.This is fun.

Latest discussion from SPC-

The latest CFS runs now have a torch for December lol, but then a pretty good look for January- similar to above but better- deeper trough and hints of a bit of HL help. Looks pretty similar to h5 back in Jan of 2018 when we had the cold period(and the bomb cyclone). February doesn't look terrible either. All just for fun ofc at this juncture with these climate models.

6z 3km NAM suggestive of super cells transitioning to QLCS. Has what appears to be a bowing segment with a cyclonic head developing and moving towards the lower eastern shore.

If @JakkelWx gets a super cell over his yard I'll go chase it though.

Looks like its over here, No wind, which is fine with me. Impressive deluge and back end electrical storm with the following cell. 1.45" Y'all can have tomorrow.

Incredible thunder and lighting with this second part. Just unplugged all my high end audio gear.

Denton is gonna get clocked.

Getting in on the edge of that severe area here now. Booming house rattling thunder.

The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me, Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far

Nothing severe here but absolutely pouring with some T & L.

Looked great at 12z for I-95 and points east.