CAPE
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Maybe Cohen will be right for the wrong reason again.
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Based on recent/current observations, it appears to be headed in that direction. 40/70 Benchmark made a post on his preliminary thoughts for winter a page or so back and discussed it in detail.
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Assuming we are looking at a CP based, low end moderate Nina, where is the most likely location for the N/EPAC ridge to park? Given the current state and trend of the QBO, significant HL blocking episodes(AO/NAO) would appear an unlikely prospect once we get into the heart of winter, so it looks like the most critical element is the exact placement of that ridge. If it is further NE, that would seem to lessen the chances of a persistent SER.
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Transient ridging in the NAO domain is tricky. It is clearly not a block, and to get any benefit from it takes great timing. Many times it looks "good" when it shows up on a mean, but it ends up being useless and/or nothing more than a ridge passing through that space out in front of a digging trough. There are varying degrees of actual blocking, but the premise is the same- the storm track is forced underneath, and it persists for some appreciable amount of time such that we don't have to thread the needle.
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^Nice writeup with helpful supporting/background data. That last analog composite is generally in line with the h5 pattern the seasonal/climate models have been depicting for winter, with the possible exception of Dec, fwiw. Not a good look for this region, but we are getting used to the pig EPAC ridge parking in an 'unfavorable' location with little to no help in the AO/NAO space.
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As we move into October, the climate models may offer somewhat more reliable hints as to where the EPAC ridge will set up, and whether or not there will be any HL blocking for the first part of winter. We are probably still a month away from extracting anything useful from these models.
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This is something I mentioned in discussion with psu earlier in the thread. With the oceans all on fire, how much impact can a relatively small sliver of slightly cooler/warmer SSTs in the Pacific really have on the atmosphere at this point, and going forward? It would seem outside of a strong ENSO event, the influence should be muted relative to other pattern drivers.
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Yeah I will go out on a limb here and guarantee my yard will see more than an inch, which was the total last winter(rounding up).
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Latest CFS runs continue to depict h5 +height anomalies over the high latitudes for late Fall into the first part of winter.
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That map is ambiguous, and quite frankly, useless.
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I was in the 4-10" area. Yeah 8" of wet snow at 32 degrees piled up here early on, but the second half of the storm was 40 degree driving rain. An historic storm for the interior for sure, esp the mountains.
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Oh I agree. It was just a heavy wet snow to rain deal here though. Then all the waterlogged slush froze solid as the cold air came back in at the end. Probably not even a top 20 storm here as winter storms go. This is a MBY business, as we are all well aware of here.
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That storm sucked on all of the coastal plain of the MA.
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Very green here with all the rain over the last couple months. This time last year there were a bunch of leaves coming down prematurely because of stress due to the dry conditions.
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Beach snow chase redux.
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This We thought we had become NNE lol. My yard did "okay". At least had low end warning criteria snow(5"), and lots of blowing and drifting in the days that followed. Places just east of here by 10 miles had double that amount though. I really wasn't mad at all, given the previous winter results, and knowing I was about 30 miles from getting nothing.
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It was a really good storm for a large area. Too much sleet at the height along/east of I-95 though. Made up for it with the great CCB snows on the backside.
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Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.
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The end result is it was a typical Nina screw job for most of the MA. East of the bay there was some snow(5" here) but not the foot that was supposed to fall. It was close- places in DE had 8-10, and then ofc NJ and points NE got hammered.
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Gotta give the guy some credit- he manages to claim victory even as his 'discovery' fails over and over. As long as it snows a lot somewhere in the US, and at least one other weather geek on social media mentions Polar Vortex, winner!
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Who is excited for SAI tracking season? Right around the corner! Nothin' like good ol' snake oil.
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His data was pretty flawed as PSU pointed out. But what he was attempting to do as I recall was to make a correlation between a severely -QBO through the winter months during a Nina(may have been specifically a weak Nina) and colder temps in the east. I don't believe he was claiming it would be snowier than normal, but I really don't care enough to go back and look.
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Yeah I was just having a little fun with it. December isn't that far away now, so its worth casually watching these models over the next couple months to see whats being offered up for a general long wave pattern. We know the CFS vacillates from one end of the spectrum to the other at this range, but if we start to see more favorable than unfavorable looks, it will at least keep hope alive for awhile.
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CFS has sniffed it out!
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Ya gotta love the swings on the CFS runs. It now has HL blocking for DJF December with the epic 'savior' Baffin block. For January and Feb the Pacific actually looks decent plus the -NAO persists. The upcoming runs will trend back towards reality.
