CAPE

HH GEFS

The advertised h5 pattern is amplified and progressive. We can get the southward dig with NS energy in this setup. With no help in the NA however (+NAO), the tendency will be for later/offshore development as cold comes southeastward with any significant shortwave energy. Probably need a little more luck than usual with wave timing.

Another wacky solution from the GFS at HH. Plenty of cold coming in from the NW with the amped western ridge and digging shortwave energy, but the Gulf is closed for business. Baroclinic boundary is pushed offshore where the low develops, and the moisture feed comes from the Atlantic- part of our region just gets in on it this run via an inverted trough(that always works lol). This sort of evolution would favor places further NE.

Gray winter day. Feels like it should snow. 34

What's being depicted there is the 19-20th event that is a rainstorm on all the op runs. The energy dropping in behind with colder air coming in is the one to keep an eye on. Precip from that looks light/offshore for the most part on the means.

Need to see a stronger overall signal on the ensembles over the next few cycles. GEFS is the closest right now with a handful of hits and near hits.

The 0z GFS forms a wave along a strong cold front with a wall of high pressure behind it for the 21st. That could work for a light to moderate frozen event. Beyond that the next potential storm for Xmas eve has no space to develop until well offshore. The 0z Euro digs stronger shortwave energy much further south and develops a bigger storm in the SE on the 20th that tracks right over us with rain. Cold air comes in behind. 0z Canadian forms a low offshore of NC and just scrapes the SE coast with some mixed precip. Pretty decent storm signal with details TBD. Nice to have trackable potential pre Xmas.

poof.. fish storm...trending lol this place. Been super busy with work. A nice break from weather geekdom. Refreshing.

Gotta love the GFS at range. It has been advertising some whacky outcomes for that period recently.

Based on 2 members lol.

0.90" total

Mostly light to moderate rain here today with a few brief heavier downpours. More leaves to deal with thanks to the wind. 0.75 " so far with maybe another hour or 2 of showers before it tapers off. The 1-2" forecast likely won't verify, but I didn't expect it to.

Should work, but that's but one possible outcome from a single op run at hour 360, so we won't necessarily get the chance to find out lol.

Latest EPS and GEFS are hinting at a storm for that window. Something to keep an eye on. Doesn't look particular cold at this point and given the advertised h5 look it could end up offshore.

There is no signal on that run for snow within 4 days of Xmas.

I'd take my chances with this look in early Jan. Visualize a NS wave tracking just underneath.

Wave timing /interactions are not going to be the same from run to run at this range, and because the second piece of energy coming overtop the ridge doesnt dig and phase the same way as 12z, it doesnt wrap the cold air in. That 12z evolution was pretty radical lol. General idea of a coastal low for that timeframe is still there on HH GFS.

59 Nice break from the cold. Next we do mild and wet.

There has been a signal on the previous few ens runs for something along the east coast pre Xmas but the look was not quite cold enough/favored offshore development. The changes out west this run make that period a bit more interesting. Something to track over the next few model cycles anyway.

Previous couple of GEFS runs had a general shift in the trough westward, but not so much on the EPS. Good to see it. eta: leads to a more amped EPO ridge. That is the biggest difference towards the end of the 12z ens runs.

PD2

Like the 12z GFS, the 12z Euro also showing wintry potential in the 19-24 window.

The op did that this run so not surprising. Lets see how this goes in the next few model cycles.

A wall of strong HP up north with overrunning potential. GFS seems to like advertising this in the LR lately.

This could be fun lol