CAPE

@psuhoffman Sure we could still thread the needle with a flattish wave, perfectly timed with enough spacing, just as the cold is departing. But this upcoming pattern was supposed to be "different". It does not look that way though. It's just more of the same. Thats all I am saying.

The look at the end of the EPS run features yet another transient cold/dry shot behind a cutter, with a trough about to dig out west downstream of the biggest thorn in our side this winter. Rinse and repeat. We are seriously stuck lol.

Yeah I have made several posts about how fragile these potentially "good looks" are. It is what it is. Maybe we(some) will get lucky.

A winter like this underscores how important latitude is. Even the local western highlands cant escape the hostility of the pattern. Anyone who wants snow regardless of the pattern needs to relocate to the inter mountain west, or somewhere between Minnesota and Maine.

At least that low looks like it moves off the SE coast and spares us from a big coastal rainer.

Any relax in the ++NAO looks pretty darn temporary if the GEFS is correct lol. Guess we will find out if that western ridge is real/ how much impact it will have on our sensible weather heading into early March.

I know that's what the GEFS was forecasting. Not sure the EPS ever went to that look. I haven't been watching closely, but I think it has been generally keeping the forcing near the MC, but on the weak side. When is Mersky back? We need an expert up in here.

Oh I got it lol. It was 18 bucks I think. I wanted another one.

Enough so we continue to see some hope on the guidance. Glass half full. You may notice that some of the more positive posts in the LR thread often coincide with happy hour.

Only place I have seen the 120 on tap is at DFH in Rehoboth. They also have an aged WWS, but it ain't cheap lol.

The period I was looking at was when the legit cold moves in on Thursday evening I think. There is another vort max that moves in after that too. We can reevaluate coming up shortly. If it looks promising, we can start a thread.

I know. I was being facetious. I think I ended up with a half inch of slop here. eta- that 89 storm was historic in my book. 7" of cold powder here, and big amounts all the way to the beaches. That winter ofc featured a stunning pattern reversal unfortunately. Great Dec though.

What? Where? Last historic snowstorm in Nov here was 1989.

That's what I figured. I took plenty of shots of ice on the bay, esp 2014. I would think Feb 2015 was below avg even for DC. Kinda thought there might have been one DJFM month with negative departures since those winters, but maybe not.

Below "normal" in November is about as good as having a cold April. When was the last time a winter month had negative departures?

Maybe a sneaky snow shower/squall event later this week. Quite a bit of UL energy rotating down with our next winter-like excursion. Only thing I see that is remotely trackable lol.

From the Mount Holly AFD this morning, lol. LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overview... Find something you love as much as the AO loves being in the positive phase. With most of the hemisphere`s available Arctic air remaining trapped near the pole, a very familiar pattern sets up for the long term as an initially quasi-zonal pattern over the CONUS gives way to a renewed Southeast ridge and a trough over the Plains and Great Lakes.

Not a bad choice if you are going to drink a beer with no flavor and little alcohol.

I'm old like you. I was a child in the 70s too. "Kid" is relative. Today 30 year olds are considered kids lol.

Was probably the same event. I think it was in Feb, 1985? Might be off a year.

The 90 min is a damn good DIPA. More malty than most others, and just a hint of what the 120 is like. You wouldn't think adding another 30 mins to the boil/more hops would make that much difference, but it does. Its obviously more than that(more barley to start with), to get the abv% from 9 to around 18. The 120 is a different beast.

I concur. If the MJO forecasts fail, and absent any significant changes up top(not likely) then its difficult to believe there will be any appreciable changes in the pattern. As always, we wait and see.

That's a familiar look in the E/NPAC at the end of the EPS run. I could speculate about where it might be heading, but I wont.

16 here. Probably the coldest since the period before Xmas.

It's been what, a week or so now since we started to see a "different" looking pattern advertised on the means? Evaluating the modeled look now, to me it still lacks the look we need to increase our snow chances, esp heading into March, excluding a needle threading ofc. We are still seeing a vortex impinging on the EPO space, the mean PAC ridge is still too far west, and no hints of blocking. Maybe there will be some relaxation in the +AO, but it would probably be temporary. So whats really different? In general it's varying degrees of western ridging, depending on the model. GEFS/EPS has it up over western/central Canada. That is certainly a better look than what we have seen, but not sure how sustainable it is, or if it will be much of a net positive on our sensible weather. Unless the tropical forcing shifts, probably a good chance the pattern reverts back to what we have experienced since December, assuming we actually do get some meaningful change. Other than wavelengths, the one thing that could really help the cause is probably not in the cards. Not to worry, we will have our stout -NAO by May.