CAPE

I think it probably works out better(for a more widespread rain event) if the subtropical low gets out of the way. A phase seems like a low probability, but if it hangs closer to the coast near our latitude there may be an area of subsidence on the northern/western side.

85/65 I'll take a replay of the previous few days, thanks.

Speaking of warm and humid, I could have waited another month for a day like today.

Not weather related for me. I drink in the AC, not outside in the stifling heat and humidity of summer. That's what water is for.

Enjoy mid June today. Tomorrow should be ok for the most part, but there will be a chance of some scattered showers. Still around 80.

Cult Classic is great. Love their hazy IPA.Their pumpkin ale is quite good. More on the subtle side. Looks like you got a full day in.

I did! Awesome place isn't it? Nice photo.

He reemerged lol.

The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east.

These convoluted setups always look "impressive" on guidance at this time frame. A subtropical low and at least 2 other disturbances interacting in some way, in an overall larger scale trough. Probably will be some showers here and there from Sunday through Wed, but nothing even close to a washout for any particular period.

Haven't seen Mersky around lately.

Yeah y'all on the mainland stay put. Don't be rushing over here bringing your diseases.

I could use some rain in my yard. With all the trees now active, higher sun, and plenty of wind lately, my soil has gotten a tad dry. Grass can start to struggle pretty quickly here heading into summer. Hate to have to start watering already.

My understanding of solar min/max and the correlation to NAO is that it shifts. I read a paper back in winter and IIRC in the last 50 years or so a -NAO is correlated with higher solar activity. Of course you also have to look at other factors, specifically ENSO state, as it also influences the the NAM/NAO phases. There are a lot of complex interactions so this stuff ends up being pretty speculative, and who knows to what degree any established relationships are influenced by a changing climate.

HL blocking is extinct in winter until proven otherwise.

Yup. Stay at home order ends Friday. Up to local jurisdictions from that point. Pretty much what i expected.

Mount Holly's thoughts on early next week... By Sunday, high pressure builds offshore of New England, then the front to our south will begin returning northward as an area of low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and toward the Mid Atlantic. However, the models diverge in how they handle the low. Models differ in how fast they bring the low into the area and how fast the low exits. The GFS brings it in and exits it faster, while the the ECMWF is slower. As the low pressure and associated frontal boundaries affect the area, an extended period of rainfall can be expected. So there will be a chance of rain from at least Sunday, through Monday night, but the chance of rain could last into through Tuesday night.

67 but quite warm in the sun. I was sweating just now mowing my lawn. Its moderating..

Drinking a 120. I did cross into Talbot county to get it though!

This is the one- Eastern Shore Brewing 'Strawberry Shakedown'. Its a DIPA.

38 here this morning. Probably the last time I see 30s for a long while.

I tried an IPA a while back that was brewed with strawberries, and it was damn good. Can't recall the name off the top of my head. I need to find it again.

Always drink plenty of water. Hydration is way good. Other than morning coffee, and beer/booze, that's all I drink.

Stop at Terrapin Park right near the Bay bridge in Stevensville. You can also stop at the Winery(liquor store), which has a great selection of craft beers to build your own 6 pack, including the DFH high gravity stuff. They are in the Red Apple Plaza on the end towards Safeway.

That's all me by the sounds of it. With any luck I will be out that way sometime this summer.