CAPE

0.28" this morning. 9.32" for the month. 75 here currently.

Something to keep in mind with the general gloom and doom/early predictions for a warm winter- wrt the "new" normal/base state of the Pacific, in conjunction with a Nina, it doesn't necessarily translate to a crap winter. The last Nina we had was just 3 years ago, and it did produce a very respectable cold period, the bomb cyclone, and for some of us, normal snowfall. My yard was literally right at or maybe a tad above average. Point being these changes in the Pacific certainly existed to some extent then, and this stuff waxes and wanes each season even if the general trend is headed in an 'unfavorable' direction going forward. Nina winters can be an exercise in frustration wrt snowfall for the MA, but an anomalous cold period. even in an overall warmish winter, does happen- we just need to time it up and get lucky.

This, plus a stalled front across the area.

How much, if any, energy from that southern trough will be able to eject northeastward to give our area some rain chances towards the weekend? This would be a much more interesting discussion if it were winter, in what would be a favorable NA pattern, with confluence to our NE. The suppression fears would be real.

The most reliable indicators we have about the character of winter are ofc ENSO, and then the recent persistence of the background state in the Pacific. At this point its hard not to have visions of a persistent pig ridge sitting over the EPAC exactly where we don't want it.

Good downpour right now.

No shelf, just a gradually weakening line moving in with some thunder. Still some pretty cool looking clouds with rain shafts in the distance.

63 this morning. Fall preview week. Fronts moving through, lower dew points, pleasant temps. Courtesy of a +PNA/-NAO, a combo that we will likely never see a few months from now.

Feels really comfortable out there now. Cool and breezy. Currently 68. Thinking of Fall .

Agree. They play hard, but overall lack talent. The ownership is clearly awful, but that does not have an impact on how hard this group tries on the field. I am a realist. Sure "anything" is possible in a significantly shortened season plus expanded playoffs, but if they can finish .500 it would be an accomplishment, and far better than most experts thought was possible(and clearly better than the 14-46 record I predicted lol).

After keeping the mosquitoes under control and a non issue from Spring through mid summer, the recent rains have brought out the late summer variety. Nothing like the early onslaught that occurs in Spring if I don't control it with larvicide, but it has become somewhat annoying at this point. I have to use spray when I am working outside now.

Chuck needs to expand on the stock market/crude oil correlation to the global weather patterns. He might be on to something. Probably cant be any worse than the SAI/AO bullshit.

Finally brightening up here, and the rain has stopped. Event total of 0.90" 8.83" for the month

From Mount Holly- Steadier rain is moving slowly eastward and will likely progress offshore by mid afternoon. Lighter/scattered showers will remain in the wake of the main precipitation shield this afternoon, so have kept fairly high PoPs through the afternoon hours near/east of the urban corridor. So far, highest QPE has been in northern/central Delmarva and on the central New Jersey coast, confirming a rather poor overall performance of the model suite for this event (both in terms of geographic placement and total rainfall). I concur. The models were all over the place, and no one model was very close with the distribution of the qpf, while hitting the actual min/ max locations. The 12z and 18z runs of the GFS yesterday caught the heavier precip(2" amounts) just south and east of DC, but then lost it after that. It probably did the best overall though. Euro was pretty decent overall, but had like 8" of rain along the beaches of MD and DE on the 12z run yesterday( I didn't look at 0z). 3km NAM was too wet, too far NW, and then went dry everywhere with its early morning runs. It had next to nothing here, which was totally wrong.

Sweeeeet Baby Jesus! lol can you taste the peanut butter?

One of my fave Bourdain segments.

So much for getting out in the yard today lol. Pesky showers keep hanging on here. 0.82"

The PDO seems to be heading back to a predominately negative phase, and it might stay that way for a while. I never know what to think of it anyway, as it is clearly a response to multiple influences, and not an atmospheric driver itself. Most of the patterns/temp/precip anomalies that the PDO is associated with, have a stronger correlation to the ENSO state itself. So I suppose it is an enhancer/moderator in certain cases. We have had a recent tendency for a massive ridge in the EPAC/suppression of the Aleutian low, and combined with SST anomaly persistence, seems to argue for negative phase. The ENSO has an impact on the elements that drive the PDO (like the Aleutian low). Looking at the distribution of SSTs associated with the -/+ PDO phases, it seems logical that the cool phase should be generally favored in a Nina, and vise versa, esp during stronger ENSO events. Ofc it doesn't always work out this way.

0.73" here. Looks to be winding down now. Nice drink for the new grass.

Not that the weather will actually feel like fall, but this week will get us thinking about it. Low to mid 80s for highs, and coolish at night. Headed down the homestretch of summer- even though September in these parts usually features plenty of summer weather. Hopefully it is more seasonable than July-like.

If the HRRR is correct, I will be outside working in the yard by noon. Radar seems to indicate that as well.

A week later it looks like this. I am working generally right to left. That area of clover in front of the fire pit I am going to leave until later, then I will mow it super low.chop up the soil and loosen it with a shovel, seed it, and let the remnant clover contribute to feeding. I am working on the back side of the fire pit area now, then I will go left(out of the photo) and come forward, and hit that larger clover area last. Its keeping some green there for now lol.

0.68" so far. Back to just some light rain for now.

They have been up for a few days lol. I was amazed. Noticed them Thursday evening, 5 days after seeding. Did another section yesterday.

Moderate to occasionally heavy rain falling here now.