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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Hoping for some thunder
  2. CAPE
    Did you have a snowless Jan 2022?
  3. CAPE
    Literally lol. Where he is, good spot for a suppressed storm.
  4. CAPE
    Yeah that's closer to where we want it. If you didn't see it, check out what the op does in that timeframe lol. Explains a lot of how things transpired on that run.
  5. CAPE
    Pretty, but verbatim the vortex part of that block is displaced more southward than ideal. Increases suppression risk for the NE and northern MA. I made note of this in a post based on the 12z op run.
  6. CAPE
    Wrt the storm potential centered on the 9th- still a solid signal for this range, but no not as good as 0z(which was insanely good). Still quite good for southern/eastern parts of our region.
  7. CAPE
    With the advertised pattern, there shouldn't be a cutter problem. A Miller B evolution sure. Probably favored given all the NS vorticity flying around. Most likely failure mode would be suppression. There is some crazy confluence on that Euro run. The 50-50 vortex retrogrades southwestward towards New England lol. A quasi-stationary 50-50 is an indication of a true NA block, but that's too much of a good thing.
  8. CAPE
    Not necessarily. Some of our best NA blocking periods are associated with being 'just cold enough'. In this case there is also an amplified EPO ridge and a southward displaced TPV.
  9. CAPE
    Warm and windy. 65
  10. CAPE
    and then NC gets a foot+ for the next one while we smokin' cirrus?
  11. CAPE
    I was mostly just skeptical that it would actually evolve into something sustained/significant. Initially on guidance it appeared the NAO would be modestly negative once the EPO block set up.
  12. CAPE
    I mean, effing hell..
  13. CAPE
    The strongest signal for a snowstorm across 0z ensemble runs is the EPS for the 10th- and it is a strong signal for this range. A bit of a weaker signal on the 6z GEFS with low pressure more offshore compared to the 0z run. The 6-7th storm has an initial low to our NW on the majority of members, with secondary development somewhere along the MA coast(Miller B). In a nutshell, not much has changed and it is still too early for details.
  14. CAPE
    Bengals live another day. Hell of a game. All Denver had to do was get a first down and run out the clock to get in the playoffs. They couldn't do it. Burrow could be the MVP, but won't because of the crappy record.
  15. CAPE
    Looks like back to back coastals on the GEFS.
  16. CAPE
    That storm isnt even in my top 10 list.
  17. CAPE
    Yeah a tad further east and no p-type issues for the coastal plain.
  18. CAPE
    It didn't. It dry slotted for eastern areas, which was worse lol. Heavy snow to sleet is better than literally half a storm.
  19. CAPE
    Dank look
  20. CAPE
    At long range, it's a crapshoot either way. The mean is what is generally used. But hey if it helps you cope because you might miss out on something big, have at it!
  21. CAPE
    Side note- too bad there isn't an island chain due east of DE to take advantage of offshore lows and ocean effect snow with Arctic outbreaks.
  22. CAPE
    Why concern yourself with TOO MUCH COLD? Not something we struggle with much lately lol The upcoming pattern should not be the frustrating cold/dry warm/wet deal either if we in fact get the HL -AO/NAO/EPO trifecta. Can we still fail? Absolutely. But it will be bad luck with wave timing that will most likely be the culprit.
  23. CAPE
    The 12z EPS depicts snow on snow between the 6th and the 12th. Not a fan of snow maps at range, but this is indicative of the potential we are looking at for the upcoming pattern. Remember this is a mean, not to be interpreted as expected actual amounts. As such it is pretty impressive.
  24. CAPE
    EPS implies a legit Miller A here.
  25. CAPE
    There is more action on the GEFS between the 9th and 12th but but too diffuse on the mean- would need to dig into the individual members to sort it out and not worth the effort at this range. Upshot is cold with more precip chances.
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