CAPE

That part of his post was overstating it. Last year sucked for the whole region, but going forward, snow climo here may well become worse.

lol I was just having a bit of fun at your expense. I know my climo here, and what is ideal for my yard is not necessarily what you want to see, but it is not all that rare either. Long term avg snowfall here is higher than DC, at 18.5". There are many times I have gotten moderate or even significant snow that have left places NW of I-95 high and dry. Happened in Jan of 2017 and 18 most recently. Both of those events had legit cold air in place. That tends to even things out a bit, because clearly being further inland is better much of the time.

Its well NW.

Razor thin margin for victory for eastern areas.. A rain/snow mix or snow tv does nothing for me at this juncture. Blocking galore so far but I am not even half way to median snowfall. As it stands now it looks like the chances for any legit cold is delayed until late next week.

That is snow to rain to snow verbatim on the mean. One reason the snowfall is pretty meager.

This will be yours in the end dw lol.

I get it. We suck here by default. I might suggest just thinking a bit more before you make a post. A lot of times I start to make a post, evaluate, and then I say nah, that doesn't really add anything and I dump it.

Your posts have been a little erratic lately.

This is what I am referring to. The ideal look here would have the thermal boundary somewhat suppressed to the SE. Ofc that scares the NW folks because FRINGED.

It would be briefly colder behind the storm, but beyond that I doubt the overall progression changes much.

Temps are problematic for I95 and east. Need it to be amped up enough to gain some latitude and have it close enough to the coast for meaningful precip, but in that case the lack of low level cold is an issue. As usual with only marginal cold air around , the best chance of accumulating snow is NW, assuming precip makes it there.

I always love when PSU says "we" don't want big cold because it ends up dry, except that is usually the only way it works out for the coastal plain, esp lately.

Given the usual lack of cold, this is how it will go down.

p13 Let the NW folks get fringed for once lol.

Well its still not very cold. If the storm misses and we are partly sunny temps are in the 40s. It isn't even very cold with precipitation falling on the 6z run. Verbatim it is probably mostly rain with temps in the mid to upper 30s here, despite what the pretty WB maps imply.

Yeah there was a pretty big shift between 0z and 6z. Mostly to do that sw that sheds off the tail of the trough maintaining more separation and sharpness as it comes east.

Okay the NW 'trend' can stop right now tyvm.

The vorticity max is more detached from the the NS trough and stronger compared to 0z.

Surface temps are a bit warm so that should temper your enthusiasm.

Huge shift-

Mount Holly be like- what happened to the cold? Coming out of the weekend guidance has taken a fairly large shift. Previously a cold arctic airmass was anticipated to drop south over the central CONUS ushering in a well below normal airmass, however with the 18z and 00z suite, guidance is not nearly as bullish on the cold air dropping out of Canada. I`m hesitant to go all in on newer guidance and suggest near normal temperatures for next week such as the 00z deterministic guidance indicates, so I`ve offered a compromise of a slight trend towards a warmer solution for next week.

GEFS says there is still a chance for Sunday. EPS made a slight tick NW, and GEPS says forget about it.