CAPE

Transient ridging in the NAO domain is tricky. It is clearly not a block, and to get any benefit from it takes great timing. Many times it looks "good" when it shows up on a mean, but it ends up being useless and/or nothing more than a ridge passing through that space out in front of a digging trough. There are varying degrees of actual blocking, but the premise is the same- the storm track is forced underneath, and it persists for some appreciable amount of time such that we don't have to thread the needle.

Rate of change of daylight is highest now. Most everything in nature is a sine wave, or a close approximation.

Decent chance it becomes a semi-permanent fixture.

If we end up with a moderate, CP based Nina, we likely wont be seeing many of these looks during winter. Might as well enjoy it now.

From Mount Holly AFD this morning- The main forecast question today is if the skies will become whiter in appearance this afternoon, owing to another round of smoke from the fires in the western U.S. Latest HRRR-Smoke simulations indicate a fairly broad region of upper-level smoke will migrate eastward into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as westerly flow in the Midwest/Great Lakes reaches a col positioned on the East Coast. This pattern is favorable for the smoke to move into the region and subsequently stagnate in the highly diffluent upper-level flow west of Teddy. The sun may become more filtered today as the smoke moves into the area, and there may be some impacts on high temperatures. For now, though, think any effects on temperatures will be low, given that there will be plenty of time for radiational warming this morning.

^Nice writeup with helpful supporting/background data. That last analog composite is generally in line with the h5 pattern the seasonal/climate models have been depicting for winter, with the possible exception of Dec, fwiw. Not a good look for this region, but we are getting used to the pig EPAC ridge parking in an 'unfavorable' location with little to no help in the AO/NAO space.

43 for the low here.

There are a only a few out here and there, but they are aggressive. I wouldn't think they last much longer, with the dry stretch and cooler temps.

The last few years were bad here. Since I don't have an attic- log home with all cathedral ceilings- once they find a way in up top, they end up in the house and live with me all winter. I probably flushed 100 of them down the toilet from Jan to March, and vacuumed up a bunch more. Annoying bastards. I am ready this year. Last weekend I sprayed an insecticide with a long lasting residual under the eaves, along the fascia, soffit vents, and the entire chimney from bottom to top. They are normally congregating on the south side of the house by now. I don't think they are going to be suddenly absent this year, but hopefully not as many.

Yes. That dude is a joke.

Still waiting for the return of the stink bugs. Haven't see one yet. Maybe nature has adapted. Can only hope.

59 here currently Forecast low of 43 tonight. Been 44-45 the last few nights.

LOL. What a hack this dude is. He pulls this shit every year. No, there is no proven connection between a -AO/NAO in Sept and October, and what may transpire in the HL region in December and beyond. Its a crapshoot, and based on recent winters, and prospects for a moderate a NINA this winter, odds are this wont work out too well.

Seems many of the injuries have occurred on synthetic surfaces. The technologies vary somewhat, and are better than 20 years ago, but still generally suck.

Another bad break for Tavon Young. Season ending knee injury. Three of his first five seasons have now ended with major injuries. The Ravens love the guy, but he cant stay on the field. They were depending on him to be a major contributor in the secondary this season.

After a gradual warm up to sightly above avg temps this week, boom. I have a feeling we are gonna pay for this great Fall weather in a couple months

44 for the low here. I thought it would get a little colder than that. Bust!

Getting the wood split and stacked. Going to need a lot of firewood for the upcoming severely cold winter. It is not a meteorological impossibility. \

63 appears to be the high temp here. So gorgeous out there.

I'm still trying to finish the lawn and get it established before the leaves start coming down. Was out there early and pretty much got it done. Amazing morning to be outside working in the yard.

The next couple nights look ideal for radiational cooling. Might be some frost as close as the far NW suburbs.

October would be seasonably cool with this h5 look. GEFS is also suggesting +heights in the NAO domain in the LR.

46 here

woosh! at least he is consistent.