CAPE

Hell yeah I have had my heat on. Has to be at 71-72 or this place feels like a cold cave.

Not much group think here. Might lean towards weenie think lol, but overall I think we have a pretty nice exchange of information and independent/objective contributions wrt possible outcomes for the upcoming winter. I read the CWG article that included your general thoughts, so please expand on those itt.

Which is today. Drinking one now. Superb.

Picked up another half inch+ overnight, and still raining. 2.83" so far. A 3" total looks likely.

Yeah we had a 'snow drought' until the cold powder event at the end of the month ( a fav of mine) but it was hardly a torch lol.

Knob Creek on the rocks for HH. Picked up some KBS Expresso Bourbon Barrel Aged Chocolate Coffee Stout for tomorrow and beyond.

Still 65 here. Freeze warning for tomorrow night.

2.25" here. Looks like the following low will produce another half inch or so. Would love for that to miss to the south.

The only concern in my mind is if the SPV remains strong and begins to couple with the troposphere and eventually we end up with sustained lower heights down toward the surface. If that sort of thing happens in the Fall it can become a fixture for winter.

Fwiw, GEFS/extended GEFS still depicting increasing h5 heights up top in about 2 weeks.

Damn, the opinions of BAMWx got some people shook.

From Mount Holly AFD- Meanwhile, an old frontal boundary remains across Delmarva and extends back to the southwest towards Zeta. Rain becomes steadier and heavier going through the late morning hours as the boundary interacts with tropical moisture associated with Zeta. The heaviest of the rain will fall late this afternoon and into this evening as Zeta passes through Delmarva and southern New Jersey. Pressure gradient tightens up, with northeast winds overall increasing to around 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph, except for the coasts, where winds will range from 15-25 mph with 25-35 mph gusts. Gusts to 50 mph are possible right along the Delaware shores, so will hoist a Wind Advisory for late this afternoon into early this evening with the approach and immediate passage of Zeta for Delaware Beaches.

LR uncertainty. We know all about that. Ensembles have been advertising a cold period sometime around Halloween for quite awhile now. It is going to happen. Always issues with timing and details..

LOL Well, vitamin D3 comes from fish oil, egg yolks, etc. When skin is exposed to sunlight, it produces vitamin D3. So for those lacking(or avoiding) sun exposure, it is the one you want. Lack of D3 can cause depression in some.. i.e SAD. Most people in the mid and higher latitudes are deficient, unless you are a sun worshipper.

I guess that's my primary "gripe" too. Half of the trees have reached peak/dropped much of their leaves, the woods are very thinned out, but still plenty of green. I have every type of oak, plus hickory, maple, and other random stuff. No coordination!

DFH 120 for HH. Just because.. it was in the fridge.

Load up on D3 supplements, CBD oil, and drink moderately if possible. 2020 ain't so bad.

I'll go with DT's ideas for the upcoming winter.

Looking pretty lame for everywhere up there now. Your area will probably see more snow from the next piece of energy rotating down late Sunday into Monday. Looks pretty impressive at h5.

Forecast low here is now 30 for Friday night.

WPC has the area in a slight risk for excessive rain for day 2.

That oddity in the regular cycle in 2016-17 really stands out. Makes one wonder if that sort of thing will become more prevalent. I suppose it could have simply been related to the strong Nino during that period, or maybe a sign of things to come.

That tends to be the case with the "legit" blocking winters. Doesn't mean we can't get some HL help though. SPV is not likely going to be disturbed in the near term based on current forecasts. WAFz looks minimal over the next 10 days. Unless the SPV becomes becomes a persistent, giant blue ball of death over the coming weeks and couples to the troposphere, there is still the possibility of HL + h5 heights developing towards the end of November as the long range GEFS and EPS are suggesting. Time will tell, as always.

Its mostly yellows and oranges around here. Some red, but not much. Most of the maples are "swamp", so just more yellow. Its always pretty much the same- some trees peak early and are bare by the time others are at peak.To me, its decent, but I have never thought the color looked spectacular here, regardless of how wet/dry/cold/warm it is.