CAPE
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The 6z GEFS wants to reshuffle the pattern a bit for early Dec- tries to establish a +PNA, with lower heights near the Aleutians. 0z GEPS says NO.
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Pretty drive in this morning with heavy frost covering the landscape. Really gave the impression of a coating of snow.
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24.5 Probably as low as it will go.
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There actually is a "high" area east of town. Probably 60-70 feet, and the town is 30 or so. It's all relative on the eastern shore. I think the highest spot on the eastern shore is north of Chestertown. 100 feet or so. Usually when you see elevations of over 100 feet, it's a landfill lol.
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25 at 5am. Might drop a bit more towards sunrise.
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Unfortunately that is the default, period. The coldest air and lowest heights naturally reside in the high latitudes. It takes some work(equatorial heat transport) to disrupt that and produce anomalously positive heights up there with persistence, and with the changing climate, it seems the mechanisms required make that happen don't align as often.
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Just hit 32 here at 730. eta- 30.5 at 8pm. First legit freeze. Radiating well here.
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Another very short lived cold shot. Better than wall to wall ridging.
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Down to 34 at 6pm. That ties the lowest temp here so far this fall.
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Random op run silliness? Sure! Notice how it only snows well south of here into central/southern VA, and then rains all the way to the UP of Michigan. lol. Thats realistic! Good ol GFS at D10+..
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High of 42 here. Currently 38.
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The NAO 'goes like +2' every winter. Not interesting. Now a -2 otoh..
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^Smoke and/or low solar will knock it back.
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Extended GEFS still "evolves" the pattern to where +heights are building in the NAO domain a few days later, but it wouldn't do much good with that AK trough sitting there pumping the PAC puke and cutting off the supply of cold air. Hopefully we see a bit of a reshuffle out west by mid-month.
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34 again this morning. First freeze tonight maybe. Forecast low of 26. I'll take the over.
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Weeeeee!!! Time to get the Dec discussion thread started?
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Yeah we have had leftover slushy slop on the ground, and snow a day or so later, but not any cases of a legit white xmas in my lifetime. I would defo take 13-14 over 15-16.The latter was a wretched torch winter with basically one week of legit winter and a big score. Epic tracking period but it was 60 degrees a few days later. I like to get out and enjoy it and it was sloppy muck before I could. Blah.
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Ya killin' me here. (No pun intended, reaper.) Given the rarity of December snow in these parts, and the romantic nature of it, I would have to go with (1). Tough one!
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So you are predicting a neutral-slightly negative NAO overall for the winter months?
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That is one impressively large area of "warm" 2m temp anomalies. Not sure I would pay much attention to that 4-6 weeks out. Advertised h5 height anomalies are probably marginally better at that range, but still plenty of uncertainty.
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Speaking of happy(hour), this is doing the trick right now.
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I would take the annual average snowfall at Davis, spread out over 4 winters, in a series of 4-6" events, and be damn happy.
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Ravens signed former Seahawk TE Luke Willson. Solid move. Especially considering they were down to one tight end with Boyle out for the season. I expect we will see the versatile Patrick Ricard lining up more at TE as well.
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Pretty decent fwiw. I tend to take a peak at the week beyond D15, just to see how things look. All low skill at that range ofc. Latest Euro weeklies are meh, at least from what I can glean from the really bad h5 graphics on the freebie site. Probably similar enough to the GEFS for the first week or so of Dec, but has at least some weak ridging in the east.
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I didn't notice it either when I bolded it and replied lol.
