CAPE

Big boy stouts.

My makeshift refrigerator lol. I didn't have too much, but threw everything out except the essentials(beer and wine mostly). Hopefully I will have a new one this week.

When is the official grand opening? Dec 1?

This look has been moving up in time. I made a post a couple days ago when the extended GEFS looked like this around mid Dec. I guess the problem is it might be transient and happen too early lol. Still not a lot of cold air initially available either way. To take advantage, this needs to verify, and have some persistence, in order to reload cold in our nearby source region..

No offense, but you are a pretty odd dude.

Agreed but we must always chase the unicorn, right? EPO domain is going to be important to our chances for legit cold air outbreaks, imo

12z GEFS looks pretty darn good at the end of the run today. GEPS isn't bad either. Probably average to slightly below average temps. Ofc it's just on paper at this point. We shall see. eta- Latest GEFS extended is a bit more ambiguous with the pattern around mid Dec compared to previous runs. Not bad but never gets the +heights into the NAO region. Given how the last couple GEFS runs have looked, it will be interesting to see the next extended run. For those who don't know, the extended(beyond hr 384) is a feature of the 0z runs, but the extended hours have a 24 hour delay, at least on TT. So the run I am referencing here is the 0z Friday edition.

Nor was mine. No need to 'go back and look'. I only brought it up as a possible reason why he isn't posting here anymore. I also hope he returns.

I'll just drink and talk a lot.

Maybe we should get a zoom "beer discussion meeting" organized.

I came home and my refrigerator had died. Looks like the mother board is fried. I had to scramble to get it cleaned out and deal with the frozen stuff. As for the beer, I am well into it now. Including a 120. I haven't been legit drunk for a long time, but well on my way now lol. Hopefully I can get a good Black Friday deal at Lowes or Home Depot.

I also hope he returns. He and I would often ninja each other with similar posts at 5am, although his were much more detailed(long winded )than mine. I believe he may be staying away because of some covid discussion way back in May, where it got a tad political, and he completely misinterpreted a post by psuhoffman, and made a detailed, ranting post that was simply wrong by any objective measure. We all make mistakes, and I hope he comes back, as he seems like a good guy and has been a valuable contributor here.

It probably wouldn't do us much good if it were transient... and the persistent toughing near AK has largely cut off polar air penetration into our source region. I don't expect to see persistence with a stable W US ridge in a favorable position anytime soon. What would really help is if the EPO flipped- that would provide a mechanism to get cold air back into western/central Canada pretty quickly.

Better than atmospheric memory. We really need it to forget.

He is not so much a fraud as he is a one-trick pony hack.

lol he is so awful.

All the globals seem to suggesting a +PNA over the past few runs. Latest extended GEFS brings us this look by mid December.

High of 49 here. Currently 43.

Everyone needs to just enjoy extended fall. Hopefully we can go abnormally dry. My WAG is we see a period of actual winter from roughly mid Jan to mid Feb, courtesy of a -EPO.

Just checking out the Carroll County highpoint on peakbagger. I think if I made my way there I would be looking at the yard of @psuhoffman

peakbagger.com is a very cool site too. It has topo maps, identifies the highest spots in every county of every state and tells you how to get to it.

No lol. The microscale elevation differences don't factor in around here when it comes to snowfall. The interior/upper shore does better because that region is a bit further north, not close to either bay, and is far enough removed from the ocean influence for winter storms that take a favorable track. My yard is almost always colder than Easton, and does better with snow esp in marginal events. I have been commuting to Easton for many years and it's interesting to see the bay influence locally, most notable during winter.

Yes just east of that general area. Chapel Rd and even running south of there. There are some spots 70+ feet.

They tend to get in up top. I actually sprayed the facia and the eaves/vents this year, and they didn't show up lol. I also wonder if they have been getting in at the ridge vent, because if they do, they are essentially in the house as I have no attic. One good indicator is none have come in through the chimney. Usually when I open the door on the wood stove insert there are bunches in there, dead and alive. Opened it the other day and not a one.

I usually see them all over the sunny side of the house in early Fall. Usually see them for weeks when the days are warm but getting shorter. I may have seen 5 total this year. Major difference. Hopefully something in nature adapted or the farmers eradicated them with insecticide. I will know soon enough. I usually see plenty in the house during winter.