CAPE

lol I have an extension ladder. That step ladder has been leaning against that tree for a month. Might put it away today.

Yeah that's my reference for the weather station lol. It needs a good cleaning too. Algae and other green junk been having a good time here lately. No rush to get everything done, since we are in for an extended period of Sept-Oct weather. Eventually we may even see some November weather.

Been out removing leaves. Still very foggy. I revealed the grass under all the leaves, and its nice and green. So is much of my deck lol, after months of above normal rain.

More like stagnant, under a massive upper ridge lol. Not dry here, even though it hasn't rained for a week. Long nights, low sun.

Mid 70s is kinda gross for this time of year. I will probably sweat and get bit by a random mosquito while blowing/mulching leaves.

How's the FD The Fear clone coming along?

Had a glass of wine with dinner and an All Day IPA. Light night for me lol.

True. But banter can be non weather discussion. Beer and stuff.

So quiet in here lately.

Not a fan at all but I wish him the best.

From Mount Holly on the potential for next week- A deep upper trough in place across the southwestern CONUS is forecast to eject northeastward late Monday into Tuesday while TC Eta churns across south Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The ejecting trough will send a surge of deep tropical moisture associated with Eta poleward by the middle of the week. Eta itself is forecast to remain over the Gulf of Mexico and will presumably dissipate there via strong wind shear by the middle to end of the week. The dynamics and forcing from the trough will arrive across our area into Wednesday as the tropical moisture arrives and, long story short, it looks quite wet. Precipitable water values could surge well above 2", which would shatter November records at IAD and OKX. A first guess at rainfall amounts would be widespread values in the 1-2" range during the Wednesday time frame, however a lot can and will change with regard to the timing and placement of heaviest rain over the coming days.

Mid and late next week still looks potentially active/juicy.

Looking beyond our mild/warm and boring stretch of weather, mid next week looks to become active with possible tropical connection.

36 here this morning with some scattered frost.

It is a well known predictor of HL blocking.

I am late too. Didn't get home until 4. I just know that today the HH rules were changed to "whenever you want". Surely someone here must be 3 sheets to the wind by now.

Drinking the last of the KBS Expresso Bourbon Barrel Aged Chocolate Coffee stouts. Woo, what a mouth full. It is a legit HG beast too at 12%. Need to get more of this one.

Everybody drunk? If not, get busy.

Yes it will be. I stated this a few times itt, and just my opinion- our best hope for occasional cold air intrusions probably lies with the orientation/ placement of the EPAC ridge. Hopefully ridging can establish towards the EPO domain for a time. Maybe we see a few transient -NAO episodes, but given the run of +AO/NAO winters we are on, and other factors that aren't necessarily favorable, it's difficult to be optimistic about the development of persistent HL blocking this winter.

The TPV is much more influential on sensible weather. We can go an entire winter with little to no connection between the SPV and the TPV. I think sometimes it is forgotten that these 2 features are entirely separate entities. Probably not likely to see a sustained -AO if the SPV is unperturbed, but it certainly does not preclude blocking episodes and cold air outbreaks. We had plenty of "visits" from pieces of the TPV during the winter of 2013-14, and it had everything to do with the sustained -EPO/WPO, and little to nothing to do with the state of the SPV.

One more chilly day then we enter what looks like a long stretch of upper 60s- low 70s. A tad warm but at least it looks dry.

Temps rose after midnight here. WAA FTL. 43.

Monday edition of Euro Weeklies is out. Freebie h5 panel for Nov 30- Dec 7:

40 here after a high of 47. Wind and some branches down but no loss of power here today.

An inch or 2. Nice. You will see what it means to actually "get smoked" later though.