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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Excellent read. My buddy in Conway was in the biggest bust zone. Ended up with a quarter inch of mostly compact/partially melted flakes after a bunch of rain.
  2. CAPE
    Verbatim its a trailing cold front from low that moves across the Great Lakes, and there is some pretty cold air behind it. The WA high looks like it slows the progression of the front some, and there is are a couple of shorwaves digging south ahead of the western ridge. Too much analysis for day 10, but that is a pretty interesting set up.
  3. CAPE
    Just clouds in the forecast here, but 20% chance of light snow for Easton. Might see a flake or 3 driving south in the morning.
  4. CAPE
    Well yeah that is a projected mean, but it certainly would not be a shoutout look for the latter third of December, esp up your way,
  5. CAPE
    Word is Lamar will start for the Ravens Tuesday.
  6. CAPE
    Yeah I get that. Hopefully the Nina does in fact weaken towards mid/late winter. I am skeptical of any sustained AO/NAO help, because it has been so rare in winter lately, and unfavorable QBO, etc. Maybe our best shot would be a -EPO period if the Nina eases some. Ofc a SWE can also shift things in the high latitude troposphere.
  7. CAPE
    Really good look here in the NA on the 12z EPS. Too bad its wasted in (partially) mitigating a craptastic EPAC. Good example of how it can keep our region from being super warm though. As depicted we would probably be around average for temps, but pretty bleak prospects for frozen.
  8. CAPE
    Yeah there would be some chances embedded in there, but a lot would have to go right. Luckily those models are notoriously low skill, so there is that.
  9. CAPE
    ^Seasonals, meh. Almost exactly what the latest CFS looks like. Boilerplate Nina stuff.
  10. CAPE
    Pretty decent warming upstairs advertised towards day 15 on the GEFS.
  11. CAPE
    I didn't say there wasn't any potential for that window. Was just answering his question about the actual depiction for that run.
  12. CAPE
    It's a way offshore low developing on a cold front following a cutter. Our typical cold chasing rain deal.
  13. CAPE
    As it stands now I may see a few flakes falling driving into work.
  14. CAPE
    12z HRRR
  15. CAPE
    Well see a 09-10 again because it wanst a cold winter We will see plenty of warm, in all forms. We may never see the trifecta of moderate Nino, and wall to wall -AO/-NAO again though. The latter combo seems extinct, during DJF anyway.
  16. CAPE
    I think he was referring to the winter as a whole, and for the MA region in general. 2015-16 was a torch with one decent week to 10 day period and one big storm, and that was much better for the western burbs than the eastern. Not even remotely comparable to 2009-10, and we probably won't see another winter close to that in our lifetimes. I believe that was the general point he was making.
  17. CAPE
    Pretty much any place east of I-95 it would be generous to go with a tenth for frozen. I had just under an inch of snow/sleet total here.
  18. CAPE
    Probably a tenth lol.
  19. CAPE
    Two differences I see in the advertised longwave pattern between the EPS and GEFS beyond the mid month period: EPS keeps some semblance of a -WPO(ridge) while the GEFS loses it, and EPS has a little better look in the NA, although not ideal. This keeps the the Pacific flow somewhat at bay, and allows the east coast to remain on the cooler side. Something to monitor going forward. (I would have used the WB GEFS, but as usual WB always sucks in some way and its not available atm).
  20. CAPE
    Just needs one vienna sausage with a blob of ketchup on top.
  21. CAPE
    Yeah that general window continues to hold some promise on the ens guidance. A couple days ago the GFS had a trailing wave along the cold front and gave us some snow around the 13th-14th I believe.
  22. CAPE
    GFS dumps all the energy into it at the end of the 12z run.
  23. CAPE
    Yeah well, I definitely know mine here, and it ain't good for snow most years.
  24. CAPE
    I am not at all pessimistic about what I see in general. I made an objective post about what the GEFS was advertising vs the EPS. But I get the subtle trolling. I do it too- and sometimes they don't get it.
  25. CAPE
    Pay increase this winter?
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