CAPE

Yeah I did look at the 6z GFS and it was a glancing blow with boundary temps a tad too mild, but colder air just west. Verbatim it looked like a cold chasing rain deal. Still time for it to morph into something a bit more favorable,

Where are all the snow map posters? I only have access via the freebie sites and I didn't bother looking lol.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I used to work at an engine remanufacturing plant. We built a bunch of the 3.8L v6 engines. Quite a few of the 4.1L too. The latter had a huge bore- reminded me of the 400 small block. Not much meat between the inner cylinder walls and the water jacket. On the 400 the outside of the cyl walls were joined. The 252 v6 may have been that way too. Cracked cylinders were common on both.

Who needs big displacement when you got big turbo

Lots of wave breaking in this high amplitude pattern leading to cutoffs and eventually maybe a block in the NA with time. This is one way to get it done.

The western ridge with impressive amplitude up into the EPO domain on the 6z GEFS.

A little wet! Warm too. How was the cruise? Burn some rubber?

I have been keeping an eye on mid month on the extended GEFS. Here is the latest depiction at h5. Best overall look yet, with what looks like a developing -EPO, and a -NAO. Southern stream should still be active too.

It's looking like a pretty decent heavy rain/wind event for early next week with that low closing off and tracking to the NW of the area. Congrats Ohio. Late next week/weekend looks semi interesting with potential complex interaction between a disturbance ejecting from the SW and northern stream energy dropping down. This has a chance to be further east/colder than the early week system.

Yeah they just released 3- this one, the bourbon barrel aged imperial stout, and the gingerbread spiced stout. The last one I am not sure is my cup of tea lol but I might try it. eta- this is similar to the imperial, but the bourbon is more prominent i think. I like this one a bit more, but both are very good. Subtle differences.

Some snippets from a very detailed AFD from Mount Holly this afternoon- As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, a strong +PNA will develop. This begins over the weekend, then strengthens early to mid next week as an even stronger ridge builds in over the Northwest. This will force a downstream trough over the eastern and southeastern US beginning late in the weekend and likely continuing through most or all of next week, driving colder air into the southern US. Notably, this pattern is very counter to what would normally be expected in a moderate to strong La Nina. But a good reminder that other aspects of intraseasonal forcing can sometimes overcome the dominant global pattern driver. It is also usually an active, stormy pattern for the East Coast. Sunday night-Wednesday... As mentioned above, active weather is likely for this period. It will be a highly complex evolution as the new pattern takes shape. We will be watching two systems which are likely to begin interacting late in the weekend. One is a Canadian clipper low dropping towards the northern Great Lakes. The other is a robust southern stream wave propagating out of the desert Southwest, supported by an anomalously strong subtropical jet. Guidance has given strong indications for days that these systems are likely to phase over the East. However, as is usually the case, this interaction is likely to be complex, and while the general signal between models is fairly consistent, there are significant differences in details and timing. By the middle to end of next week, additional unsettled weather is possible as trailing shortwave disturbances rotate into the broader longwave trough in the East. With colder air in place, wintry outcomes may be more favored with time, but given the uncertainty associated with the early week system, changes are likely.

Picked this up today so I'll give it a go. Their Bourbon Barrel Aged Imperial Stout was very good. Still waiting for it to get cold- I broke out the (thermo)electric cooler the other day lol. I ordered a new control board for the fridge, and it won't be here until Friday.

So what's on tap for Thanksgiving eve HH?

I don't think he really remembers what he said initially, being drunk and all. But this is exactly what i did, as you know because you saw it. His original post had no place in that thread, or even banter for that matter.

That seemed like the logical and fair thing to do. I had my doubts though.

lol. I simply told you to take that shit elsewhere. Then you "flipped out" and attacked me with some dumbass crap about running people off the board. I will accept your apology though. Take care of that drinking problem.

It is impossible to resolve the minor details associated with how a specific storm will evolve and progress at this range. All we can do is identify the major components of the pattern and determine that the potential is there. It can be the most favorable pattern ever seen on paper and still produce no snow. The advertised h5 pattern is much more of a Nino look btw.

Just correcting his "story". He is entitled to his truthiness, but there were plenty of people in that thread who witnessed his bizarre little meltdown. It's done now. Move on.

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

Cool story. Not correct though. You were triggered. You had a random hissy fit- everyone in that thread saw it. I shut you down. You got pissed and came back with some baseless bullshit about me. My reply was pretty tame- "yeah sure asshole". You had the tantrum. Stick to the immature drive by dick jokes. You have nothing else to offer here.

You need to start showing up for happy hour. Slacker.

Gourmet meal right here

I completely agree. But RR has some axe to grind apparently. He serves up that crap whenever someone says they miss a certain poster, as if there is some conspiracy going on up in here. Derailing main threads with shit like that should earn a timeout imo.

Yeah sorry. but he came with that crap out of nowhere. It was way the eff out there and uncalled for in that thread