CAPE

Mount Holly AFD. Just like we said- we just cant know at this juncture lol. Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will impact the area on Thursday with the passage of that cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be on the order of 35-45 kt, and PWATs will be in excess of 2.5 inches. From there, conditions become quite unsettled going into the Holiday weekend. The front gets hung up just south of the region, and a deep upper trough with a closed upper low will dig in from the west. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will impact the area Friday through Saturday. From there, things become even more uncertain. The ECMWF is much more progressive with the passage of that closed low, with it over eastern Canada by Sunday afternoon. The GFS, however, has it over the Great Lakes. Although there may be a break in the precip from Saturday night into Sunday morning, the divergence between the two models makes it hard to determine the pattern for Sunday afternoon through Monday. If the GFS wins out, it will be rainy. If the ECMWF wins out, Sunday and Monday will be dry.

88 here but dp is 75 so it feels pretty gross.

What's the 15 day mean snowfall map look like?

There should be plenty of water for the weeds after the lawns all fry over the next few days.

we simply can't know. weather53 can explain why in detail.

For late week/weekend, GFS still has a closed ULL that slowly moves eastward, while the Euro has an open trough that is more progressive. GEFS looks more like the EPS/Euro op. If the GFS is more correct, the weekend would feature a continuation of showers and remain on the humid side.

3) just right.

Lawn is hanging in there. The heat this week will provide a crucial test of its durability. No mosquitos at all. "Bog" dried up on schedule, like the days when we used to have normal weather.

Bring it.

Well you aren't getting your beloved face melting 100. Sorry.

Looks like it took a step towards the GFS with more of a cut off h5 look. That's all I can glean from TT. More rain next weekend?

87/73 Could be worse, and it will be the next few days.

EPS and GEFS suggest the front will clear in time for a nice weekend, esp Sunday. No guarantee though, given the setup. GFS and CMC op runs both dig the h5 energy further west and close it off, then bring it east later, so we stay on the active side with rain chances into next weekend. Euro op doesn't dig it as much or as far west and the dry/cooler air gets here quicker.

Ridge city.

Not hot, but it sure is sultry. 82/76

79 here. I doubt its going to make it to 88. Given its mid afternoon and the ground is wet, evaporation is going to inhibit surface temp rise.

You never do with op runs at range, as all of us here are well aware of. 12z GEFS is supportive of the op, fwiw.

Finally sunny here now. Picked up 0.32" of rain this morning.

^Ofc EJ would prefer 100/80 rather than the GFS advertised 78/55 for the 4th. I have some doubts about the WA ridge breaking down/moving out that quickly this time of year. Previous runs had the front stalled through next weekend with continuation of warm/humid and chances of rain. CMC still has that scenario.

Everyone should be rooting for the 12z GFS progression. Multiple rounds of rain late week with the slow moving front then it clears early Saturday. Below normal temps for 4th of July.

Looks like high temps may bust low here if it doesn't clear up in the next hour or so. Not hating the clouds and rain at all. Pleasant surprise. One less day of blazing sun and heat.

Getting a tropical downpour here currently.

More stuff developing just to the south. Moisture laden dark clouds looking in that direction. Maybe I an catch another quick downpour. Probably little chance for rain here until later in the week after today. Bermuda high subsidence.

I see Mt Holly mentioned it in their AM disco, but they weren't necessarily buying it lol. Some guidance (GFS/HRRR) develops some convection this morning in Delmarva and southward, where stronger differential heating may occur from the retreating low cloud deck (and also potential influence from developing sea/bay breezes). However, this seems overdone given the existing pattern, particularly given the lack of a stronger larger-scale lifting mechanism.