CAPE
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Two differences I see in the advertised longwave pattern between the EPS and GEFS beyond the mid month period: EPS keeps some semblance of a -WPO(ridge) while the GEFS loses it, and EPS has a little better look in the NA, although not ideal. This keeps the the Pacific flow somewhat at bay, and allows the east coast to remain on the cooler side. Something to monitor going forward. (I would have used the WB GEFS, but as usual WB always sucks in some way and its not available atm).
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Just needs one vienna sausage with a blob of ketchup on top.
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Yeah that general window continues to hold some promise on the ens guidance. A couple days ago the GFS had a trailing wave along the cold front and gave us some snow around the 13th-14th I believe.
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GFS dumps all the energy into it at the end of the 12z run.
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Yeah well, I definitely know mine here, and it ain't good for snow most years.
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I am not at all pessimistic about what I see in general. I made an objective post about what the GEFS was advertising vs the EPS. But I get the subtle trolling. I do it too- and sometimes they don't get it.
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Pay increase this winter?
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Per the GEFS and GEPS, finally some below normal air in northern/central Canada mid to late month. Lets hope the trough over AK doesn't park there and deepen, and scour it all back out. Then we just need a mechanism to bring it southward.
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I actually post less when things start to look like shit. At least for now. Still negotiating with the reaper.
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1.25" Currently 44 with the wind picking up a bit.
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GEFS doesn't and the lower 48 is all above normal by day 15. There are a few days of slightly below average temps mid month before the puke makes it to the east coast. All subject to change ofc.
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Always good to blame the GFS when the synoptic setup is hostile for snow.
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GOOD CHANCE OF 1ST LIGHT SNOW EVENT VA / nw NC/ MD DEL MONDAY DEC 7
CAPE replied to DTWXRISK's topic in Mid Atlantic
Mount Holly is all in on sunny, chilly week, although they mention an outside chance of light rain showers for coastal areas(DE) in their discussion. -
Big snow winters during a Nina are extremely rare, but we can do ok at times. The last 2 were decent for most, and very good for the immediate coast with the big coastal scrapers in early January.
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Just reminiscing. This seems like some wild ass fantasy now lol.
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Yeah there was still solid slush cover here, but the warmer air and snow eating fog had moved in, ahead of the rain.
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It's generally mild through Christmas. We are the Mid Atlantic. We only wish we were Maine.
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Just an awful hire. He had little to nothing to do with the success at GB. They surely would have been more dominant without his mediocrity.
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Maybe this is it, although considering the source, probably not. https://www.newsweek.com/l-comedian-killed-covid-shared-final-video-filthy-hospital-room-1552420
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Rg3 on IR. Jackson has not yet been cleared to play the Dallas game. As of now, Trace is the man!
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Yeah it feels pretty much the same as always. Drinking a Bells Scotch Ale (winter warmer Xmas type thing). Its decent. Should have bought more stouts instead.
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But you can banter here, as long as it doesn't involve politics.
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The flurry/sprinkle threat thread seems dead. As I said in the Disco obs thread the other day, after a soaking rain tonight/tomorrow, the cool/dry stretch for the upcoming week will be welcome.
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Wow what i have ever done to you? Take your hurt feelings to banter. I like your schtick, if it makes you feel better. Now make an informed and interesting weather based post.
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Oh I am not making any proclamations about the character of the winter as a whole. No one on the planet truly knows what is to come over the next few months. In the near term, if the means have the right idea, we may be heading towards a pretty hostile N/EPAC. There are also hints that the NA may be halfway decent at the same time- maybe a weakish east based negative NAO. The best outcome in that scenario (for mid/late Dec) would be avoiding above average temps in the east. Maybe we can hang close to "normal".
