CAPE

With the high pressure positioned nearly overhead, clear skies, and no air movement, temps will quickly drop below freezing, and over this way there is a freezing fog potential, esp over in DE and into NJ. Freezing Fog Advisory in effect for just NE of here.

Mount Holly mentions the potential in their AFD.. On Tuesday into Wednesday, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the southeast coast into the Mid Atlantic region. The current track from the model guidance keeps the low right along the coast. This would bring precipitation to the entire forecast area starting Wednesday morning, and continuing into Wednesday night. As of now, it looks like this would be a rain/snow event. As always, the track will determine the p-types. But it looks like much of the area could see some snow at some point during the evening, with an accumulating snow possible for some areas. We`re still a week away, so we`ll have several changes before then, but definitely worth watching.

I like the more neutral trough axis this run vs 0z, when it was tilting negative as it approached. That likely wont work for places east of the highlands this time of year without super cold air in place.

I am fine with him. He likes to post the twitter weather geek stuff. Some of it is interesting.

The inherent shookness of the weather weenie.

This is actually a decent look. Better than the GEFS surface depiction at that time.

The confluence/convergence up there is something to keep an eye on in future runs. That 50-50 low is moving pretty quick on the latest GFS runs as the trough digs and heights build in front. Surface HP is on the move further NE as a result. It might help if the developing block was further along, or a bit more expansive, to hold that low in position longer.

It's always difficult to predict how long it will persist. I like seeing the core of the +height anomalies shift further sw later in the ensemble runs, more towards the Davis Strait and Baffin. That's the sweet spot for the MA. Initially it looks to be focused over the Northern half of Greenland.

Just looking at the GFS, the trough amplifies and goes negative pretty early. That general idea would be problematic for the lowlands. Interior elevated areas could do well as long as it doesn't track too far inland. Still about a week out, so plenty to be resolved.

Shit ton of rain though. Immediately followed by cold and windy!!

Latest extended GEFS run looking towards early Jan. Lets add a -EPO to the -AO/NAO.

Horchata 10w-40 Imperial Stout from Hi-Wire for HH This is one of those stouts with a lot going on and it all works beautifully. Almond/amaretto aroma, dark bittersweet chocolate and spicy cinnamon on the palate, and smooth, almost creamy mouthfeel.

December 2009! 2020 redux, Nina style?

Wes had a great CWG article on the phases/states of the indices wrt to DC snowfall years ago, with some scatter plots to illustrate. -AO has the highest correlation to above avg snow in DC, and when that occurs we almost always have a -NAO too. That being said, there are other ways to get there as we saw with favorable EPO/WPO in back to back winters several years ago, with little to no help from the the AO/NAO. That setup has a high risk of cutters for anything amped though. Ofc we also want ENSO to be warm neutral to moderate Nino in general for big snow in these parts.

I agree we need significant HL help, particularly for the first half of winter with a moderate Nina. The ens means have been pretty persistent in advertising a -NAO in recent runs so thats a good sign- all caveats apply about verifying in real time. We are also seeing a western US ridge return on the means beyond day 10, and that would be be big in conjunction with a favorable NA in getting some cold aimed more towards the east. My posts about the EPO are wrt to the back half of winter. Assuming the Nina is going to continue to weaken some moving forward, we may see more of a tendency for ridging over AK at times later in winter. It would be great if the NA remains generally favorable throughout, and maybe it will, but recent history says otherwise. If a SWE does occur, who knows how that may shuffle things in the troposphere down the road, or if it will have any impact at all.

That should take its toll in the second half. Unless Roman does something dumb with the game plan again.

Defense is pretty awful outside of the one interception. No pressure. Got away with a flagrant PI.

Feels like I am watching an entertaining game between 2 really bad teams

Boykin??? lol wow

The false starts...****.

LOL This is how you lose to the cowboys.

Ravens are so perplexing. Tucker kicks the ball short,which is rare, and the ST coverage effs up. Way to give it right back.

Its all good. No worries. Player safety first!!

Was just thinking that. I am sure they are scrambling now with contact tracing.

Time for Hollywood to pull out of his funk. He had a nice play towards the end of the Steelers game, so maybe he has some mojo.