CAPE

I don't wanna hijack the thread, but I am saying that if there been a block leading in, and with better confluence/ more of a suppressive mechanism, the evolution would probably have been different enough that the surface low/850 low tracks would have been further SE, and the temp profile colder, thus a better outcome for places further south and east. Nothing to do with HECS, just in general, underscoring the importance of a -NAO/ 50-50 combo, making the timing less critical. Ofc there are other aspects(upstream) that had it played out a little differently, could have also led to a better outcome.

Cutter at 240. Ji in 3..2..1..

Lots of potential with the general idea. GFS op continues to flash the west based -NAO.

I assume he is only comparing the advertised h5 looks to past Ninas, but idk because I couldn't care less what he thinks lol.

Good post. I pointed this out with the last storm. The lack of a block and the resulting transient 50-50 low was one fundamental problem, esp for eastern areas. The confluence was on the move and displaced too far NE. eta: the -AO provides the mechanism to displace cold into the midlatitudes. Ofc we typically see a -NAO when the AO is persistently negative.

Ravens need to put a beat down on an inferior opponent today. No sputtering and dumb penalties. If they are serious about making the playoffs, take care of business. Good game to discover a pass rush.

This is definitely not the ideal place for the +height anomalies to be focused. It is workable though, as long as the Pacific is serviceable, and that is going to be variable. As is typically the case, timing and luck will be required. Also just because the means show the NA ridge generally further east than ideal, that doesn't mean it wont reside further NW at times. So again, timing.

Weak lift. Zero dynamics. Also I looked at HRRR sounding and it did have a warm layer around 850 mb, but it cooled as precip fell as modeled. There just isn't much precip though and it's light.

lol bad call Mt Holly! This morning`s update basically ramps up the potential for some light accumulating snow through the early morning hours. We switched the VCP over this morning from 32 to 31 to get a more sensitive look at the radar echos heading this way and we`re pretty confident that some of the clouds are now producing some light flurries to over portions of DelMarVa. With a more robust set of returns over the tidewater of Virginia, we have increased confidence in accumulating precip moving over DelMarVa and southern New Jersey. With the cold air aloft and no melting layer in sight on either KDIX or KDOX, this is expected to be pure sure. The HRRR has been all over this with the surface feature starting off as all snow before eventually transitioning to rain along the coast by mid day.

You got my point.

33 and rain lol. I need some evidence that its still meteorologically possible for a flake to fall here.

Although I did "promise" a white Xmas, the way its looking maybe the best chance (for some) is for the snowpack to survive the upcoming mild period, fog, and probably 1-2" of rain lol. Still a chance for a brief period of snow or snow showers behind the front, and maybe a coating. Flakes in the air is my bar.

loop d loop It cant handle the block.

Not worth posting. Its the default for late Dec- early Jan. Close to 3" out your way to just over an inch in my yard.

Be careful. I'm desperate.

Maybe I will see the first flake tomorrow morning. Not holding my breath with this weak ass pos lol.

Well this is nothing new. Been the norm since at least July lol.

Oh I see it, lol.

At this juncture, there are still a range of possibilities. The mean is the way to go as a general guide.

The mean is where its at, other than going all weenie over a cherry picked member or 2.

Lookin' good!

Gettin' Hot In Herre..

I know you are into music. Expand your horizons. Get some range, dude.

Another bust low. 34 is going to be the high again today. Forecast high was 40. That's a major bust. I guess all that snowpack just to our north, along with weak sun and mid/high level clouds is having an impact.