CAPE

Sweet.

My current forecast is snow/sleet/freezing rain ending as light rain Tuesday morning. Times are lean, so if I can get a decent coating of something frozen on the ground, I guess I am good with that.

Pretty good summary here from Mount Holly- A messy setup all around, from the synoptic structure of the storm system to the actual surface weather conditions. Low pressure tracking out of the Mississippi Valley region will become highly elongated and likely separate into a weakening parent low tracking west of us and a developing secondary wave over or just south of us. This will lead to a fairly prolonged precipitation event. The precipitation will mainly be driven by warm advection, but that lift source is going to be weakening, and consequently so will the precipitation shield. So may be a case of a long duration but mainly light intensity event. Given the weakening dynamics and lack of strong warm advection, as well as a northeast as opposed to east or southeast surface flow, am skeptical about how much plain rain will become involved outside of the southernmost zones. Currently feel frozen ptypes will be favored in most areas, though that could certainly include a good deal of sleet and freezing rain in addition to snow. Considering the relatively modest expectations for QPF, have an early suspicion of an advisory level event in most of the area, but still a lot of details yet to be determined.

lol NAM Although the Euro has that nice front end band over this way too.

Probably my fave of the Nu/alt metal bands, other than SOAD. Effing love them.

Epic!!! If this is our new normal for blocking patterns, its gonna be really tough for snow in these parts. I will blame it somewhat on the Nina and bad luck so far, but there is also that elephant in the room..

I was thinking more about the car

Aren't you moving to Florida in the Spring? Track the hell out of everything and have fun with it. Lets bring one home before you head to a place where it never snows. Err wait..

Who needs actual snow? It's messy and cold and they brine and salt the roads to death.

Well, I certainly can't get enough of tracking potential.

Kind of an odd little band of heavy snow on the front end literally a few miles to my NE. If that's real I need it to expand a tad.

Freezing rain! Yeah I forgot it only shows green or blue. I never look too deeply at that model. And if it isn't frozen, its still rain and doesn't interest me.

Decent thump of rain on the 12z ICON followed by a dry slot, and some pity flakes at the end.

This is likely cooked for the coastal plain. I think its just the Euro and its baby brother that still have any decent snow, and that's mainly for the northern crew up near the PA line. The ICON and CMC are both pretty torcherific.

Not a bad look for early Feb. Not exactly what we want to see up to the NE, but this pattern has the potential to bring some decent cold. That's an ingredient we have been sorely missing.

The forecast for my yard implies maybe an inch of snow/sleet, but I would be willing to bet the warm layer aloft ends up being significant enough that its just sleet, and then goes over to rain. The wave is moving too fast and dampens enough that I doubt there will be any significant frozen on the backend.

It seems to be holding with the front end thump idea with the colder thermal profile. That's good to see. We know how these things have tended to trend towards game time though. The goddamn worm needs to turn.

I was sleeping like a baby for last night's runs, but looking over the guidance this morning it' seems to be slowly slipping away for the southern and eastern parts of the region. Hopefully the Euro holds it's ground and maybe improves a bit, but the latest GFS run is hot garbage for my yard.

I do my best to exude optimism, but it has to be balanced with a strong grasp of reality.

2018-19 was "ok", but the one good storm was more DC and western burb centric. I had a total of 12" here that winter, which was disappointing at the time lol. 2017-18 was actually pretty much average here, 18" or so, thanks to being on the NW fringe of the bomb cyclone and also the March snowstorm. 2016-17 I think the total here was like 10", but 6 of that came again from getting in on the early Jan coastal scraper that was a big snowstorm at the beaches. Complete suckage since.

The thermal profile on the GFS gets worse every run. Verbatim 6z is close to pure rain for many now.

Well, 2 chases it is. lol. It just wont snow here anymore. I see the path to less than an inch for a second consecutive winter.

This is literally right where we want it. DT aleeting?

Pretty close to something good.