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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Yeah that's not happening. The deal is getting heavier precip at the beginning, and maximizing on frozen. Once it goes to rain, with temps at 32, its just rain.
  2. CAPE
    We can hope!
  3. CAPE
    And no I dont believe that blue over my yard. I have been NAMed tho, such that it is with an event like this lol.
  4. CAPE
  5. CAPE
    Our shot at frozen is very dependent on the intensity of precip as it comes in. Much better/more expansive eastward on the NAM this run.
  6. CAPE
    I know these surface p-type maps tend to be wonky, but it aligns with the cooling aloft.
  7. CAPE
    12z NAM is warm upstairs as the precip comes in, but it cools to right around 0c at 850 as the precip gets going. Probably snow/sleet before it transitions to freezing rain/rain. Its even pretty good over here, and has the best area of front end snow in extreme NE MD. SE PA, into NJ. Interesting. Hints of some drier air from the NE and some evap cooling maybe.
  8. CAPE
    His overview of the event sounds surprisingly accurate and underhyped.
  9. CAPE
    I am still trying to talk myself into the early week event. Its not working.
  10. CAPE
    Some random flakes flying here. As usual, nothing impressive.
  11. CAPE
    I get the grinds, as usual lol.
  12. CAPE
    Yep. More like it.
  13. CAPE
    The 6z run looks much more realistic, and closer to the GFS. Still nice for your yard and north.
  14. CAPE
    It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front.
  15. CAPE
    Chasing is fun, but it would be nice to have a legit event in my yard for once lol.
  16. CAPE
    This is only a 6 hour panel, so more snow to come esp for eastern areas on the ones that are wet. The thing to note is on many members, like the op, it is warmish and wet at the start of the event. As usual, not a lot of cold air around. The low needs to be amped and take a damn near perfect track for this to work, esp for the lowlands. Very few southern tracks in the mix.
  17. CAPE
    White ones better than wet ones?
  18. CAPE
    I would take this run and call it a winter.
  19. CAPE
    I will do my best WW impression.
  20. CAPE
    NAM looking icy too. Outside of far western areas, where the combo of higher qpf/colder surface temps will coincide, a legit ice storm doesn't seem very likely. The general character of this event looks like some snow/sleet at that start, then zr, and for the lowlands, turning to plain rain.
  21. CAPE
    Both songs are very good, and raise awareness.
  22. CAPE
    Tool is awesome. Schism is one of my all time favorite prog rock songs.
  23. CAPE
    Dude, every drop of that stuff is precious. I have one in the fridge for Sunday.
  24. CAPE
    Look to the NE.
  25. CAPE
    Lookin PD1-ish?
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