CAPE

35/16 here and cloudy

Been busy today. Just saw the WWA in effect for here, Damn, going with 1-3 inches. More bullish than I expected. Mount Holly AFD- A complex weather pattern is evolving across the eastern two- thirds of the country. A surface low in the central Plains is ejecting eastward, attendant to a midlevel vort max shearing out in the downstream confluent flow across the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, a strong vort max is digging southeast through the prairies of southern Canada, which will force the eastward acceleration of the southern-stream system. A zonally- oriented baroclinic zone extends to the southern Mid-Atlantic, with precipitation spreading into Virginia and North Carolina this afternoon. As the baroclinic zone lifts northward somewhat this evening, a predecessor perturbation will race through the Mid-Atlantic region. With ambient boundary-layer dry air (sufficiently cool given the overcast spreading northward into the southern/central CWA today), a thump of precipitation will spread into Delmarva this evening. Model soundings suggest a few hours of strong omega in the dendritic growth zone, so if the low levels can saturate, some decent snow rates (up to a half inch per hour) may occur. Combined with wet-bulbing effects, a quick one to two inches of snow may accumulate, as advertised via much of the hi-res guidance. Have issued a winter weather advisory for Delmarva for this threat from 7 pm to 4 am.

I was also satisfying my craving for Ji snow. Hopefully I can get a little of the real thing too.

I am almost fringed to the south now on the NAMs. Makes some sense looking at the advertised precip shield. Keeps sinking more to the south as it heads east.

Yup. It can be as good a pattern for the UK as it is here. Worked out much more for them so far.

My friend outside of Manchester has had snow on the ground 5 different times in the last 2 weeks.

I have had 4 warned events here since 2016, 3 of them low end. I know SE areas over towards the beaches had big snow events in both Jan of 17 and 18. Maybe places further west right along the bay have missed out on some of these.

I haven't thought too much about it, but the LR looks I am seeing don't imply a 'close the shades' situation. Historically it finds ways to snow in February, but we know we are in somewhat different times. In general I like seeing a mechanism to inject polar air into the midlatitudes, but we need the Pac to cooperate enough to allow it to propagate east.

Cold leading in, then cold behind is the general idea on the means. so temps are an obvious problem esp for the lowlands, and the coastal transfer has the typical look of occurring too far north/too late for our area. Maybe the WDI will overwhelm the complexity and high probably of failure lol.

Not impossible, but all kinds of potential issues with this one. We need something simple lol.

Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always.

Need it to be juiced up on the front end, and this is a disorganized system in a weakening state as it moves east, so that is very much in question. For eastern areas, If we don't get decent precip early, it will be a few sleet pellets to rain. This literally happens all the time in set ups like this.

I would have preferred to not see Brady in a 10th super bowl or whatever it is. The TB defense played a heck of a game, and as we all now know, AR is a really shitty QB and should be dumped.

Don't forget the pissing and moaning (i know you didn't) Everything one would expect on a forum full of weather freaks and geeks.

If I somehow manage to get an inch tonight, that will end this snowless winter, and exceed the total for last winter. This discombobulated, strung out, hot mess of an event needs to come though. It is pivotal for my yard lol.

It was always going to be a challenge to get the flow to back enough to allow the southern wave to gain much latitude, given the massive NA vortex- yes our beloved "50-50" low, which is actually a deep trough that is positioned too far west. It is sitting there and absorbing all the waves progressing off the coast, including the one that exits later tomorrow. What was to be our 'good storm' is a healthy southern stream wave, but there simply isn't enough spacing between it and the energy from the previous one being ingested into that vortex. Then we have the TPV lobe pressing in. In retrospect what we needed to happen was the southern wave to be slower and/or a phase with that NS energy. Without that, the southern wave can only track straight off the coast and out to sea, where it does induce a deepening surface low, but way too late, Hopefully we can get some decent wind out if it!

I think it makes some sense to be more aggressive out your way. The further E/NE you go with this one, the drier its going to get due to the wave damping as it runs into higher pressure. Plus its going to get there sooner and it will be colder.

So other than the GFS, most guidance is suggesting a little snow on the front end for most. My hope is still to see snow falling for 30 mins and a coating. These disjointed, messy setups with a primary out west and relying on timely front end precip don't usually work out here, but I guess I am due for something at some point.

Wow I am now in synch with WW. I just scared myself.

No one posted the 18z Euro snow map? Allow me.

Going for 2 at the end of the third quarter sure looked like a shitty decision at the time, and in hindsight lol.

Looks like a fantastic finish. Where is @Eskimo Joe

I will never get why coaches go for 2 when trailing, with a whole quarter to play. Just kick the damn extra point.