CAPE

What does the Ukie look like? its a bitch to find any decent surface/precip panels so I never bother.

Euro has not been stellar. The NAM? lol We got the ICON, the Canadians, the SREFs, and even the GFS, which looks pretty decent for much of the region. This aint ova.

Disagree this is "killing" intelligent discussion. Still plenty of good analysis in the discussion threads among the majority of the posters. I will agree that some here apparently never look at the upper levels and think the surface p-type/snow maps tell the story, which ofc they never do in isolation.

Yeah its the SREF, but if this ends up close to reality who would be unhappy? (other than Ji and psu)

Mount Holly AFD- One period of snows will affect many areas Wednesday night and into Thursday with the central and southern areas favored. The second disturbance will be the following night into Friday morning. This second wave is trending further south of the first one any may only affect Delmarva if trends continue. If there are no changes to the fcst (unlikely) it could end up being two advisory events for mostly the southern parts of the region. Our storm total snow graphic (both events combined) shows around 1 to 2 inches for the northern half of the area, 2 to 3 inches for the lower Delaware Valley and 4 to 6 inches for Delaware and ne MD. No flags will be issued with this package considering most of the snow (from the first event) won`t stop until the fourth period and some variances in track and intensity make it not a sure bet presently. Pops for the two events generally will be likely/categorical S and low chc for N/W areas.. If it plays out like this there wont be any complaints here.

GFS managed to pretty much miss my yard with both waves. I am inclined to believe it.

Give it a few more runs.. I love those Canadians, so my hopes and dreams are alive.

I love when you talk technical.

It was a wintry period, and had snow otg for 4+ days, Day 3 with snow cover here now, but most of that will be gone with the mild temps today.

The problem here is after the WAA part, almost all of Monday was light rain/drizzle and temps in the mid 30s. Got another inch Monday night.

I just want to actually get snow from back to back events. Snow on snow. A total of 4-5" would be fantastic. I would probably take off Thursday and Friday and be out hiking like a mofo.

Agree, It would be best to only post the silly snow maps and say yayy for mby!!!!

It looks active going forward so there will be opportunities, and thats all you can ask for really. Your area has had more bad luck so far than places around you.

Its not a problem out where you are. The further east you go, the more influence from that dry tongue to the NE.

I will gladly risk getting some sleet, vs all snow and pathetically light accumulations.

I think Mount Holly nailed it as usual. The initial wave is weak/weakening as it moves east. They are thinking 1-3 here. The second wave is a bit more juiced, but the trends are further south with that. Need a couple ticks north in the next few model cycles.

The confluence/HP to the north is a tad problematic on recent runs, especially as the wave moves further east. Drier air is eating away at the precip just to the NE. Need that to be an issue up in eastern PA and NJ, not here.

Latest take from Mount Holly- Models continue to trend more suppressed and weaker with the southern-stream trough, owing to continued confluent midlevel flow from amplifying troughing in far eastern Canada. As a result, the QPF shield has shifted so that the maximum axis is generally in the southern half of the CWA Wednesday night and Thursday. Large-scale lift will be somewhat weak, so snow rates should be light to modest at best. Nevertheless, temperatures will be sufficiently cold for snow in virtually all of the CWA. By Thursday, current snow totals of 1-3 inches are fairly widespread south of I-78, with the highest amounts generally south of I-76. A second round of snow may occur as a stronger vort max approaches the East Coast on Thursday night and Friday. The NAM has trended well south with this, mostly keeping QPF out of the CWA. The ECMWF has trended this way as well, though to a much less extreme extent. The GFS and CMC, meanwhile, are farther north and provide another round of light snow to much of the area. By Friday, widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are possible across the area, with highest confidence for the southern half of the CWA. The model trends continue colder for this period as well, given the lingering influence of the surface high to our north. This suggests the event will be primarily snow for the CWA, with any mixing likely to occur in far southern Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Forecast temperatures were kept lower than consensus, and mainly weighted toward colder raw guidance, which tends to perform best in these regimes. Though the snow will generally be light, the sufficient cold and longer potential duration suggest meaningful impacts appear likely for our forecast area.

Gotta love these northern Carroll county dudes though. They should have their own subforum.

LOL. Euro is way snowier for the majority of the region.

I never said I buy it lol. Just commenting on what the run is depicting.

Too sleety here.

Me neither.