CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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EPS and CMC ens have been trending in that direction for late month. GEFS took a step towards that today.
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6z GEFS for late next week
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High of 32 early. Upper 20s late afternoon. Currently 23 at 6pm.
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Much better upstairs, and reflected at the surface. re
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Shortwave digging
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He is who we thought he was. Panics under pressure. Holds the ball too long. Makes poor decisions. Seeing ghosts. Lucky for the Vikings the last 2 games happened.
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The EPS is hinting at a Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain towards the end of the month. This was showing up on guidance a week or so ago but then it backed off. If the EPO ridge does shift back towards the Aleutians, some help in the NA should mitigate the SER tendency.
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There are some differences in the advertised longwave pattern between the globals. Euro digs the trough more than the GFS and delays the eastward progress of the thermal boundary a bit. Shortwave energy and associated surface low track is further NW.
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Not much interest on the GEFS for Sunday-Monday.
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Is that the Tony Pann model?
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Better than 12z. Trending in the right direction, but not quite there yet.
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HH GFS be good
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Spire lol. What's the Panasonic showing?
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High of 37. 34 currently. Some meltage, but no bare areas. Being in the woods is great for holding the snowpack longer.
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There are 2 distinct potential events on the op runs though- the initial one centered on the 19th and another one a couple days later with the boundary further southeast. The ens means depict the same idea. I'm not spending time poring over each ens member to try to further interpret wave timing, whether there might be 2 or 3 waves, or how amped they are at this juncture. All that will become clearer in time.
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He has always had problems locating the ball, but its worse this season. He usually seems to have good coverage- right there to make a play- but doesnt do it or gets a PI. Probably not fixable at this point. He doesnt have the knack.
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Agree. That's why at range I rely on the mean. Look at the 24 hr precip and temps and 24 hour snow and that gives the best indication of wave timing and ptype, and that's the basis of my earlier posts.
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For now, the way it looks on the EPS is the storm on the 19-20th may end as snow- but best signal for frozen is to our NW. The following wave for the 21-22 window is by far the stronger signal for frozen in our region. eta- the 6z GFS has the same idea
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Low of 21 Looks like today will be the first above freezing temp here in a week. 32 is the highest on my station since snow has been otg.
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Solid signal for the 21-22nd on the latest EPS and GEFS.
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A few pics from a hike at Tuckahoe late Saturday afternoon. Temp was 31 with a stiff wind.
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Its pretty close to something good on the 21st. And the GEFS has been liking that window.
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Lucky for us the overwhelming Barney cold look some of the op runs like to advertise at range almost never materializes.
