CAPE

I have had some in my mulch beds all winter. Starting to pop up in the lawn now.

He was specifically bemoaning the 'degradation' - as he sees it- of the early week storm potential. His disaster/venting posts always have an element of universality.

I am referring to the Monday timeframe. See my post this morning based on the EPS/GEFS from 0z. Either way it would be tough to pull off, and an "in between" scenario has never seemed very likely. Yes in general it can snow in March anywhere in our region and even down into NC. We have seen it a lot in recent years. It still might, but I don't like the odds for the Sun-Tuesday timeframe at this juncture. I really don't like the h5 look much going forward either, so I am pretty pessimistic about seeing a widespread 4"+ event anywhere other than the elevated western areas of our region.

And then only 2 more months after that before it snows.

I put some grass seed down yesterday. Now that the cold is exiting, I will start watering that area. With the increasing sun angle and soil warming up, It might germinate in the next 10 days. Can't have a tropical deluge washing it away lol.

Objectively there was never a path to victory.

Snippet from latest AFD Denver/Boulder- There`s getting to be better agreement now on a large upper low moving slowly from Southern California Thursday across the southern Rockies Saturday and to the central plains by Monday. There are still some differences in the latitude and timing, but really given such a large, slow moving system, they may not be that important. The main story is that there`s a pretty good chance of a prolonged period of at least light snow, and possibly a period of heavy snow, for most of our area. The chance of significant snow looks greatest Friday and Saturday from about Denver southward, though there are some model solutions that have the significant precipitation further north or have steady precipitation all the way from Thursday night through Monday morning. Most model QPF for the Friday through Saturday period ranges from 1 to 3 inches. There are heavier solutions. It should be cold enough for this to be mostly snow, at least at 5000 feet and probably across the area.

I would probably take my chances with the confluence and a well timed flatter wave, even though this scenario has resulted in shredding or suppression a lot this winter. It is the colder look, and we don't have the blocking we had earlier. Otoh, a more amped wave coming in a bit later might have more upside for the western highlands, and maybe even your hood, but for the lowlands in mid March..

I would hope so, lol.

I think that time came a few years ago.

Looking like 70 is a good bet for both Thursday and Friday. Bring it.

22 here approaching 5am.

0z EPS implies flatter wave(s) damping with eastward movement early next week, a similar outcome to one of the common themes of the winter when there has been a strong vortex near the Canadian Maritimes- too much confluence in the wake. GEFS digs a trough along the west coast, with more ridging in the east as the NA vortex departs quicker. Result is a more consolidated system tracking to the NW. Pick your path to defeat, lol.

Beautiful day. High of 42 here.

Well, you should be with 50+ inches of snow.

Don't forget the lotion.

"sweating a tad"

You valley folk.

That March sun is a bit like a heat lamp.

Dressed for the cold and physical activity. Homeostasis.

I can't wait for the next posting of the Control run.

It loves to grow here, like most other weeds lol. Seems to come alive in late winter, as it stays low to the ground. I yank it out and throw down a ton of preen, but it will still come back.

Yeah no wind to speak of today. Was out putting down some mulch, and was sweating a tad. Sun is legit. 36 here now. Beautiful day.

Nothing like 360 hour snow maps. Everyone take a gander and get your expectations calibrated.

Low of 25. Raging Bitch is a good one. Haven't had that for awhile.