CAPE

Founders Breakfast Stout for HH. Tried and true.

Deluge. Only a tenth of an inch up until now.

I have some dead standing oaks on my land. Luckily far enough away from the house. They might be reds, although I have white, black, and pin as well.

The moss has become prolific. I don't mind it though, because its ground cover. Problem is the relatively small area where I try to keep the grass gets full sun during the day in Summer, and it bakes. Cant keep the soil wet enough there when it is hot and sunny mid to late summer.

Cold chasing rain. Could see it with the synoptic setup 4-5 days ago. Plus it's Spring. Easy.

Looks line some possible convection this afternoon with the initial batch of prefrontal rain, then heavy rain overnight with the developing low along the front. As usual, eastern areas are favored for heavier rains.

Hope the CMC is correct. Would be nice to see N central MD get a 2"+ soaking rain. Hate to see them get into early pre-drought concerns after all the dryness last summer/Fall. As for here, would love to underperform for a second straight event. A half to 1 inch would be perfect.

So it's NAM vs GFS/EURO/ICON/CMC? Looks like the 6z 12km NAM has moved much closer to the Globals too as it approaches its useful range. Good luck though! Hopefully you see a few flakes flying at the end.

^Headed to Tug Hill?

Those who are jonesing for Spring snow should take a drive. The places that typically get it are going to, and maybe a good amount in some cases. Per WPC- As the low lifts northeast, it will be accompanied by moist and warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico with widespread and ample precipitation spreading northward. Initially, the column will be too warm for any wintry precipitation. However, a cold front sinking southeastward will lead to CAA and full-column cooling, aided by what is likely to be an intense deformation axis on the NW side of the low, into which robust WAA will drive strong omega through the DGZ. This suggests that a period of heavy snow is likely as precip changes over from rain to snow, and model-cross sections indicate a chance for CSI banding across upstate New York Thursday morning. While the heaviest snow is likely in the terrain where temperatures will be colder and cool more quickly, WPC probabilities for moderate to heavy snow have expanded slightly to encompass some lower terrain as well where the dynamic cooling will overcome the marginal low-level thermal structure. WPC probabilities have increased, and are now high for 6 inches on days 2.5-3 in the Finger Lakes region, the Tug Hill Plateau, and Adirondacks of New York. In the Adirondacks, locally more than 10" is likely where some upslope enhancement will occur as NW flow develops behind the low. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are moderate for much of upstate New York outside of the Hudson River Valley, and parts of VT. Lighter snows adding up to a few inches are likely as the low pulls away in the favored upslope regions of WV, and downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario.

Looks familiar.

Bugs are prolific. A late season freeze or 2 will have zero impact.

Well, a half inch or less there probably doesn't bode well for snow in your yard.

Mount Holly on snow chances. A tad different than that Ukie snow map above lol. For those who enjoy Spring snow, our eyes turn to the behind the cold front as cold air will race southeastward into the region by Thursday morning. I`m not to terribly bullish on wintry precipitation however with the cold air surging, its becoming increasingly likely that we`ll see rain turning to snow for the Poconos however it will likely be highly elevation dependent. Generally less than half an inch will be possible but with an increasing solar angle we may not see very much actually accumulate.

Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the midnight shift mentioned this morning and I`ll repeat verbatim, "it is becoming clear is that the large-scale pattern is favorable for an axis of decently high QPF, with upper-level flow becoming increasingly parallel to the surface front. With intense large-scale ascent via differential cyclonic vorticity advection and warm/moist low- level advection, precipitation will be widespread and fairly long-duration (despite the fast movement of the surface low)." So the challenge is where exactly does that axis of heavy precip develop? Based on trends in model guidance, forecast keeps the heaviest precip over our CWA with the highest totals (1-1.5") just east of the I-95 corridor. While subtle shifts are likely within the guidance of the next couple of days, I anticipate we`ll see at least some portion of the forecast area will recieve a prolonged 6+ hours of moderate to at times heavy rain even as the system is gaining speed moving to towards the northeast. As such, we`ve introduced heavy rain wording into the forecast for the Wednesday afternoon and overnight time periods.

Guess where WPC has the axis of heaviest rain for Wed currently. Still some disparity across guidance. Hopefully no more than an inch.

Sudden wind.

73/64 Feels humid.

Temp has jumped to 73. Windy too.

Been partly sunny here the past hour.

Looks like the overrunning part is done. Only 0.18" here. 2.95" for the month currently.

Yeah it looks like maybe some isolated straight line wind damage, and an outside chance of a weak tornado SE. A run of the mill gusty storm with some T&L would be nice.

Warm frontal overrunning about to clear the area. No thunder here. Lets see if we can get the surface cooking now.

Raining pretty good here now. Haven't heard any thunder yet.

Just drizzle/light rain here. Looks like this first round may stay mostly to my NW. I'm not mad. It would be the first rain underperformer in about a year lol.