CAPE

GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east. 12z yesterday that produced a significant event- 6z run this morning-

The problem with getting any love from the actual coastal is the NS is still largely acting as a wrecking ball, broadening the overall trough, and shoving everything east. The coastal low develops over the baroclinic boundary offshore and gets going too far east.

Good luck with that!

Looking at the GFS over the past few model cycles, the primary NS shortwave has trended more towards a vorticity lobe(lacks sharpness) and the attempted phase with the southern shortwave is sloppy(partial/late).The precip we get as depicted is associated with the southern vorticity max that slides up ahead of the broadening trough as the NS dives in behind. This southern vort has trended sharper/ further SE. The NAM fwiw has it further NW. Don't have time to go through all the guidance but suffice to say some changes in the subtle interactions are still possible.

Mount Holly this morning.. lol looks like they decided to forego all the details for what probably amounts to a minor event . Not many changes were needed in the long term with only some subtle differences compared to earlier. After a spring-like day Saturday with very mild temps and a good deal of sunshine, a cold front crosses the area late. This will bring some sct showers and sharply colder air Sat night and into Sunday. The front only slows as it moves across the area so the showers may last into the overnight. A weak low develops on the front and brings more steady precip (mostly snow) to the lower Delaware Valley, Delmarva and much of NJ Sun morning and into the afternoon. A small accumulation is possible, but not certain at this point.

Objectively better, even for your yard.

Yea better snowtv but the gfs just took away 8 flooking inches GFS kinda sucks lately, despite all the "New King" hyperbole. I never expected the 10" BS to be reality though. 2-4 is still a reasonable outcome.

Better

12z for comparison

Better. One more panel would have been nice. EPS should be interesting.

Oops forgot about the 18z Euro.

Touchy is the word to describe just about every storm this winter. Subtle differences in the timing and interplay make big differences in the outcome. The nature of fast, progressive flow. On to 0z!

Trough somewhat broader/not as deep. It simply doesn't come together quick enough. The fronto stuff is weaker/further south and the coastal low gets going later/further east. It all went the wrong way lol.

ICON fwiw. Not as good for our region and better just NE. The shortwave was broader/much less sharp this run, and beyond that I have no other insights because IDGAF and the ICON SUCKS.

I think he is always in that mode lol. I lived up that way for 12 years (at 900 ft) and never felt like I was in some sort of magical place for snow. I never kicked a 1-3 incher out of bed.

Latest NBM snow map for the hell of it. Waiting for HH GFS to get rolling while enjoying a HH Coffee Stout.

Mount Holly AFD.. we just cant know yet. For Saturday and Sunday...Low pressure tracks well to our north, however a strong cold front is forecast to cross our area by late in the day Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will maximize the low-level warm air advection and despite cloud cover, afternoon temperatures are anticipated to get well into the 50s across the coastal plain where even some low 60s will be possible. To the north and west of here, temperatures may be held down some due to more cloud cover and a possible earlier arrival of the cold front. There may not be much in the way of precipitation with the frontal passage as the main initial forcing for ascent lifts well to our north and the upper-level trough axis is still well to our west. Shortwave energy along with a favorable mid to upper level jet though may produce a ribbon of better lift late Saturday night especially across the coastal plain. It will turn much colder and drier Saturday night in the wake of the cold front along with a northwesterly breeze. As we go through Sunday, our sensible weather will be determined from what develops offshore of the Carolinas. Temperature-wise it will be cold. Much of the guidance is in agreement that low pressure develops along Saturday`s frontal zone that is located offshore. This occurs as the large scale upper-level trough shifts closer to the East Coast. However the low pressure placement, track and intensity will depend on how far south and east the colder air presses and also if any interaction (phasing) starts to occur between the northern and southern stream energy. Some guidance now showing a sharper upper-level trough which results in a bit more phasing and therefore a closer to the coast placement of the surface low. The ensemble guidance offers variability and as a result there remains considerable uncertainty with the details. Despite the surface low tracking offshore, the positioning of an upper-level jet looks favorable resulting in a zone of enhanced forcing for ascent for a time Sunday, especially across our coastal plain, which could result in a period of snow. Given the uncertainty and accounting for some guidance shifting closer to the coast (the National Blend of Models, NBM, responding to this), increased the PoPs a little however we are still no higher than the chance range.

There is very little variation between the members. Almost all of them resemble the op.

Wider view of the clown map

Might happen. This is clearly still evolving. GFS actually got pretty close. Most of the additional love from the coastal on the 6z run was right along the coast.

I am playing with house money over here. 1-3" on SB weekend would be awesome.