Bring it.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A lot of uncertainty remains with the evolution of the potential
coastal storm during the Monday through Tuesday period. The GFS
remains a bit of an outlier in delaying the organization of the
storm until farther downstream into coastal New England. I suspect
something more in line with what a consensus of a ECMWF/Canadian
blend is what is more likely to pan out given that these types of
setups tend to trend more amplified with the guidance having a right
of track bias. This would certainly be a much bigger issue if this
was January since we would probably be talking warning level snow
somewhere in the area, but fortunately it`s mid-April, and thus
accumulating snowfall (especially anything with impact) is unlikely.
In any case, I`ve kept with a blend of guidance for the forecast and
have maintained likely PoPs across the whole area for Monday night,
which does currently appear to be the period most likely to
experience widespread rain. Some wet snow may mix in across the
southern Poconos, but antecedent conditions will probably preclude
any appreciable accumulation more than a light/wet coating. I think
the bigger story with this system will be the potential for
freshwater flooding concerns (and perhaps some tidal flooding
concerns). This setup has the potential to bring a widespread
quick 1"+ of rain, so we`ll have to keep a close eye on this in
the coming forecast updates.