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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    You got into the best part with that one. Garden variety here and ended up with 0.55". Was lucky to get that, but no complaints. Needed rain.
  2. CAPE
    Just breezy here and thunder all off in the distance. Getting some decent rain now though.
  3. CAPE
    Working out well so far lol. Initial cell pushed south, and the way the line formed/congealed it bowed out to the north and also to the south. I'll get the weakest part here. A half inch would be nice.
  4. CAPE
    So far nothing here yet. The notch of nothingness from Ridgely to Goldsboro has formed.
  5. CAPE
    I just want some damn heavy rain to make up for the lack thereof the other day lol. None of the rest of that.
  6. CAPE
    53 WUUS51 KPHI 162204 SVRPHI MDC011-029-035-041-162300- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0051.250516T2204Z-250516T2300Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 604 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Talbot County in eastern Maryland... Queen Anne's County in northeastern Maryland... Northern Caroline County in eastern Maryland... Kent County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 603 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Dundalk to Bodkin Point to Arnold, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Public and ASOS. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Centerville, Chestertown, Denton, Centreville, Greensboro, Oakland, Ridgely, Rock Hall, Church Hill, Millington, Sudlersville, Betterton, Goldsboro, Queen Anne, Old Town, Grasonville, Starr, Jumptown, Newtown, and Morgnec.
  7. CAPE
    Per radar you might get some hail.
  8. CAPE
    Continuous thunder in the distance to my west. That's a healthy cell. Looks like some hail in the southern part of it. Might get in on the northern edge of it as it looks now.
  9. CAPE
    Looks like I have multiple chances but the approaching cell might slide just south, and the consolidating line behind it has a gap that kinda lines up with my yard
  10. CAPE
    I think the initial watch was for the convection associated with the morning MCS, so they let that expire. Since the next one is coming in from the west/further south they placed a watch in effect for areas west of the bay first, then with further evaluation added a new watch to adjacent areas to the east.
  11. CAPE
    Another weakening MCS moving eastward from KY/southern OH may arrive towards daybreak per some guidance. Likely won't be as intense in the wake of previous storms/loss of daytime heating, but nonetheless more storms/heavy rain will be possible in some places.
  12. CAPE
    18z HRRR looks fun for this evening.
  13. CAPE
    The new watch west of the bay is in effect until 10pm. The watch over here expires at 5pm. I'm guessing it would be extended.
  14. CAPE
    Yeah after reading the meso discussion it seemed pretty likely.
  15. CAPE
    Go chase it. Looks like the cell just to the NE of that one is pretty close to your neck of the woods.
  16. CAPE
    Looks more impressive now.
  17. CAPE
    I guess they found a motor from another supplier lol. The initial 3 week eta was insane.
  18. CAPE
    Most of the 12z Mesos look interesting for later, esp near and east of the bay. 12z 3Km NAM is a bit more scattered/isolated compared to its 6z run though.
  19. CAPE
    Yeah it looks like NE MD and southward into DE have the best shot with this initial round.
  20. CAPE
    Pretty clear elongated outflow boundary associated with the primary area of convection moving S/SE, as the convection itself is expanding southward.
  21. CAPE
    Hell of a disco from SPC for the moderate risk area. "Pristine" airmass.
  22. CAPE
    Still headed the wrong way. Into the abyss. Zero signs of turning it around. FFS do something. Fire Hyde. The result might be just as bad, or worse, but I doubt it. Change is needed.
  23. CAPE
    Fun disco from Mount Holly. Some snippets- For Friday, a decaying MCS from upstream across the Midwest this evening is anticipated to impact the region. The threat of severe hazards will be conditional based on the timing of the MCS. If it comes through very fast and early in the morning, the severe threat will likely be low. However, a slower propagation will yield increasing instability ahead of it, which would support strengthening. These systems do tend to trend faster and further south of what guidance suggests. If a slower evolution comes to fruition, all severe hazards would be possible, mainly focused on locally damaging wind gusts, but some hail or a brief tornado could be possible if all the stars align properly. Brief heavy downpours possible as well. This MCS and the environment ahead of it will need to be monitored closely overnight. In summary, Friday`s weather and forecast will be highly mesoscale driven and have low predictability beyond about 6 hours or so. High temperatures should be mostly in the mid 70s to mid 80s, and muggy with depends in the mid to upper 60s. It will be mostly cloudy with light south to southwest winds. Remain alert for additional forecast updates regarding the potential convective threats. Forcing strengthens with an incoming potent shortwave digging from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. At the surface, an area of low pressure slides by to the north Saturday into Saturday Night, with a cold front advancing towards and eventually through the region. Another decaying MCS may impact the area again Friday night or early Saturday. Any convection Friday night and Saturday could be impacted by this system. Temperatures will climb into the 80s and it will feel quite muggy ahead of the front. Instability looks to be on the order of around 1000 J/kg with relatively favorable shear. Thinking any showers and thunderstorms will come in the afternoon and evening as the front arrives. Main concern would be damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours, but still a good amount of uncertainty being a couple days out, especially given the potential for another early MCS.
  24. CAPE
    It might not make a difference, but at this point just make a change for changes sake. Maybe someone who thinks a bit out of the box, has a little energy. Hyde is a bore and completely predictable.
  25. CAPE
    Quick hitter but picked up 0.35" Total for the 'event' now 0.85"
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