CAPE

From Mount Holly- Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. Is this really still a thing lol?

They got it going on now.

Bengals! Ofc I have to root for the Chargers here. Good game.

CFS gone crazy. We can dream. Avg to above avg precip too.

That would be good timing...better than it being the case now It seems to have nailed the upcoming (crap) pattern, assuming it verifies as advertised. It had the h5 look we are currently seeing on the global ensembles over the next 2 weeks+ more than a month ago, when there was talk of HL blocking among the twitter geeks.

CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo.

So 60s instead of 80s? Sweet!!

Chargers are an odd team. They should be more consistently good. Their run D has been the biggest issue, but not today. As for the Bengals, O line issues are hard to overcome. Ravens have a below avg line with all the injuries and shifting, and they have still mostly won ugly despite it. That wont last with their schedule down the stretch. They better find a way to protect Lamar and open some holes for these shot ass RBs they are stuck with.

A bit surprised at this Bengals-Chargers game so far. Plenty of time for that Cincy O to get it going.

I think my PBP was pretty accurate.

12z GEFS took a big step in that direction.

Looks like a patch of light sprinkles/flurries passing through on the EURO

Actually I am at the tail end of a landscaping project. Some new grass yeah but got that established in October, and with the colder weather it can handle the dry. It's the new shrubs/trees I have been picking away at planting for the last month or so(all evergreens). Been having to water them occasionally.

A few days ago I was just hoping for some rain lol. Dry AF here.

While the GFS has trended south, it is still more amped/wet than the rest of the global guidance. The NAM is too, but it is always like that at range. Probably not a winning combo against everything else.

Someone should start a thread.

I got mine the day before Thanksgiving. Luckily I didn't have much of a reaction- just felt tired for the most part.

That was a funny post, but all the crappy ones overwhelm.

Its a week out dude Thus why Ens mean > random op run. All these years and you are still a shit poster.

Euro Ens mean has a low tracking way NW, Temps in the 60s on Sat leading in, 50s on Sunday.

Might be a case where the ensembles 'catch on' and flip within a few runs, but I am more inclined to think it will take some time before the longwave pattern shifts. Still seeing hints on the extended products at the very end of the month.

Anafrontal events producing snow seem to show up pretty frequently in the LR on the GFS. Almost never materialize ofc.

If the Euro is correct, it would be a dusting to a half inch if it even managed to come down hard enough to accumulate.

Probably heading to Rehoboth for a day or 2 later this week. Might work out.