CAPE

I love technical, and much of what I teach is probably considered esoteric, but I struggle with his content at times- although I appreciate it. I dig fluid mechanics, but I am kinda hanging on when I read some of his tweets.

No dead/dying/fallen trees on all that land to harvest firewood? I have a couple winters worth of wood stacked up that needs to be split- combo of fallen trees and dead standing ones that I cut. I'll get the log splitter going in the Fall (so November) when it feels more like firewood season. I'll never pay for firewood again. Overpriced, mostly green, never cut to the right size, and with other crap mixed in despite being advertised as seasoned hardwood.

Impressive outflow triggering more cells/more outflow. Pretty cool depiction on DOV radar.

That never works. August-September and even later is the best time. I like to get it established before the leaves come down.

Area of Abnormally dry just NE of my area now, although it seems like that is consistently where the rain goes when it misses my yard lately lol. Moderate drought continues for coastal DE. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?Northeast

4.3" for the month here, but 3 of it came in one event early in the month. Was just outside watering all the plants and the new grass. Where I don't water the soil is powder. eta- the moles are now coming out of the woods and looking for food in the wet oasis that is the new grass area. Just can't win with grass here lol.

October-December are our Fall months.

Extended summer is annoying but has become the norm. I escaped much of it with my trip to the UK last September, but I was still able to 'enjoy' the warm and muggy weather when I got back for the latter third of the month.

Went to bed not expecting much, but picked up some decent rain overnight. 0.68". Looks like there is an area of heavier rain with some training south of here. I can still hear the thunder. Places just south of Denton have received 2"+.

Patterns like that can bring the cold, but if the AO/NAO is predominately neutral/positive then timing is more critical as the flow is progressive. We lucked into some nice events those winters. The Atlantic wasn't exactly 'garbage' either. Still, pretty fluky. Could have easily been more of the cold and dry/mild and wet type deal. A +PNA pattern can also be on the dry side. The data clearly shows the importance of a -AO for the DC area to get above avg snowfall. We need the Pac to not be completely hostile, and at this latitude a pronounced STJ is important as well. Thus why the combo of Moderate Nino -AO/-NAO is the holy grail. In that scenario the Pac will at least be serviceable, a strong southern stream will bring the juice, and HL blocking will encourage a mean storm track further south with cold feeding in from the N/NE.

I saw the radar then looked at the HRRR. I figured it would be dead on.

Yeah there is a difference between grass going dormant, and completely losing its roots and going to thatch. I have the latter with about 50% of mine. Harsh here in the woods, plus well drained soil. A bit of work and it will be back and look nice again until the growing season ends around Jan 1.

Pretty typical for late summer. Trees dropping plenty of leaves. About half my grass always gives up, and won't come back. Started reseeding last weekend. Already have seedlings after 7 days from stage 1. Warm August soil with lowering sun angle. Just have to provide the water until it rains.

The usual annual grass reseeding project. Soil was dry and powdery when I loosened it up on Saturday. Been dry over here the last couple weeks.

Picked up a half inch with a cell that moved through earlier this afternoon. Won't have to water for a day or 2.

^It hasn't rained there much lately.

Yeah that is the good winter scenario for here that I was speaking of. Most people understand that. We also can do ok with various other ENSO states, but it's more of a crapshoot. A persistent -AO/-NAO has the highest correlation to cold/ above avg snow here, and HL blocking concurrent with a C. Pac based Nino gives us the best odds.

What other choice is there other than letting it play out? The MA lowlands generally suck at snow regardless of ENSO state. There are many paths to failure. Our 'good' winters occur when most of the indices are favorably aligned, and we get plenty of luck with small scale features and timing. It's always a struggle, and likely more so now and going forward.

Low of 58 here. Super nice stretch of weather. Could use some rain here, but since I am reseeding, controlled watering with the sprinkler is ok for now.

One can only hope.

Everything is out of whack with the setup for this one to produce rain in our region. Nice writeup from Mount Holly- Sunday morning`s 12Z sounding from Upton, NY had a PWAT value of 0.70" approaching the 10th percentile value for August 14th of 0.67". The 12Z sounding from Sterling, VA was relatively closer to normal for August 14th, 1.10" as compared to a median value of 1.27". The difference between these two soundings help depict the gradient of moisture that exists across the region, with slightly below normal values further south towards Delmarva and well below normal values further north towards northern New Jersey. This overall lack of moisture is a key factor in the near term forecast. A short wave embedded in an upper-level trough will move through the region Sunday night into Monday. While PVA associated with this wave will increase forcing, the moisture advection with this wave will not be sufficient to overcome the amount of dry air currently in place. An increase in cloud coverage is expected overnight associated with the increase in instability but the dry air will prevent precipitation from occurring through much of the earlier hours on Monday. With the initial short wave offshore, the upper-level trough will dig further south resulting in largely easterly onshore flow at the surface. While a relative increase in surface moisture can be expected with the onshore flow, PVA will be forced further south by the trough and the best forcing will be further south along with it. The decrease in forcing combined with continued dry air in the lower levels above the surface has led to further decreased rain chances for Monday. Chance PoPs remain in the areas most likely to receive precipitation (Delmarva and the Lehigh Valley) but may need to be reduced further given the drier trend. For Tuesday, the surface low will push offshore and make a turn to the north, sliding up the coast. In the mid-levels, a 500 mb low will close off during the day on Tuesday across Pennsylvania. Previous runs of the GFS had been trying to pull the surface low closer to shore and strengthen it more than other guidance. However, the 14/12z deterministic and its ensembles have reverted back in line with the ECMWF and Canadian favoring a path further offshore, albeit still a bit deeper of a low. With consensus now keeping the track of the low offshore again, precipitation chances are subsequently decreasing and becoming more confined to the Jersey shore and southern parts of Delaware. In addition, the closed 500 mb low positioning is also likely acting to reduce precipitation amounts with the core of the low progged to sit over top of us. This will act to limit large scale ascent as vorticity rounds the base of the trough off to our south and east.

For those wanting a mostly dry period this week, the trend is your friend. 12z GFS has next to nothing for the eastern third of the region.

A flock of geese flew overhead while I was outside working on the lawn this morning. Seems a tad early to see them in flight, but I am no expert.

It's dry here. I lucked out Thursday a week ago with a bit over 3", but as I did stage one of the reseeding project today, the soil is parched. Like it hasn't rained in weeks. It was so powdery I had to hit it with the hose for a bit so it had some consistency as I loosened it up.