CAPE

22 here this morning. Coldest temp so far this Fall/Winter.

Latest runs of the GEFS build heights nicely into the NAO domain leading up to Christmas. Eastern ridge is flatter/weaker, with more of a gradient pattern look, so not impossible to see something of interest in that timeframe as advertised. EPS moves in that direction but then backs off, leaving the +height anomalies near Scandinavia at day 15. CMC ens looks more like the EPS, but has leading edge of colder air bleeding into the N plains.

Btw, I am all for VODKA COLD OUTBREAK! It is so rare here, and it represents the ultimate cold airmass, I guess. Hate using JB lingo. I'll take my chances we get snow on the front end or as it moderates/ retreats. We had some pretty darn cold airmasses in 2014 with the -EPO. They were generally fleeting, and managed to produce light to moderate snow events.

Vortices are moving/rotating around all the time in the upper levels. Sure they represent areas of relatively colder/denser air, but when we have a poorly timed one to our north/ it tracks a bit too far south, the mechanism that can lead to suppression has more to do with the flow- too much confluence/convergence can slow/flatten the flow underneath, leading to weaker lift (PVA) from an approaching southern wave, and direct it off to the east before it gains enough latitude. It's often a fine line, like just about everything in this general area in order to get a good snowstorm.

I can enjoy mild rain 9 months out of the year, so if the 'risk' for the other 3 is arctic cold and dry, I will gladly take that and enjoy it. Not like an arctic airmass stays around at this latitude more than a few days anyway.

You know where I am I will roll the dice with having true arctic air in place every time. The 'give me precip and I'll take my chances with cold' credo ends up mostly rain 9 times out of 10.

I used 1983 as an example but yes 1979 is probably better.

A more typical 'Arctic' airmass enhancing a baroclinic zone in a favorable pattern can produce some pretty cold/high ratio snow events. The Blizzard of 1983, a big storm, produced heavy snow with temps in the low to mid teens, as did the late Jan 2010 moderate snowstorm, just to name a couple examples. Too much confluence resulting in a suppressed storm track is not a vodka cold thing. Sure a brutally cold airmass with a strong cold front sweeping through can push the baroclinic region wayyy off the coast and make for dry conditions. We don't get that kind of cold much though. This whole dopey convo started with someone commenting on a "vodka" cold airmass being on the doorstep of the US at day 15 of a GFS op run. So a couple things- it was a damn op run, and even if it did verify, that cold would dump well west of here. Reality is we don't usually get direct shots of brutal cold in this area, esp not in recent times. So worrying over that possibility and that it might be dry and not produce snow is a little silly, considering we have a multitude of other more likely failure modes. I think there might be some conflation here with the tendency for us to see cold and dry following a mild rain storm. That is a function of our location/latitude, and the fact that we need a lot of elements to come together to have cold enough air in place and a storm that takes a favorable track.

No. A west based, somewhat southward displaced -NAO with a vortex forced/trapped underneath can cause suppression. Think 2009-10 from the perspective of someone in NE. That was suppression to them, perfect for us. No super cold around.

Suppression mostly happens without a "vodka" cold outbreak. That is typically a function of the pattern(too much confluence) and bad timing with NS vort lobe passes.

Just a hunch, but I don't think "too cold" is going to be high on the list of reasons we fail to snow.

I'm sure the surface temp is above freezing there, so unless it comes down moderately for a time (unlikely) it wont stick.

Its snowing there. Oddball.

Flakes flying in Salisbury.

GFSX ens Control run has a similar look to the CFS depiction for early Jan with an amped ridge out west and a PV lobe dropping south. Euro Weeklies Control from Monday looks very similar too. Fun to look at, but still pretty far out. We just cant know.

29 Where's my snow?

Still trending lol. For most of us the forecast should probably be changed to mostly cloudy.

But how do you control all the jinxers on other forums and Twitter? I bet you hate when the dude calling the game says- and he hasn't missed an extra point in 312 attempts!

What's the general rule? 72 hours? That seems reasonable if there is good model agreement. Blame the GFS on this one lol. I won't bring up the NAM because it should always be ignored 3 days out.

Yes silly. Starting a thread "too early" has zero impact on what transpires. Starting a specific storm thread at least keeps the perpetual snow map posts from cluttering the main MR/LR thread.

For the superstitious, the bad mojo thread title didn't help.

It is logical though. There was no reason to start a thread because the King was not on board.

This potential SPV disruption and migration south of a PV lobe seems to be what the latest runs of the CFS are keying on for a rather sudden shift of the h5 pattern, resulting in a cold outbreak over the east the very end of Dec into early Jan.

I think he means the usual minor shifts back north that we tend to see on guidance as we approach game time. This is such a weak, strung out pos, the only possible trend from here is towards complete disappearance.

Might watch it snow on the Salisbury Uni webcam lol.