CAPE
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Down to 1.2 at 7am.
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2 here at 6am
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Early Feb has been a window with potential for awhile now. With a modeled +NAO however, timing is critical. There is cold HP to our north but it will be on the move eastward without any block in the flow in place. In this case the low tracks northward to our west as HP shifts towards/off the NE coast. The temporary damming allows for some mixed precip in the northern/western parts of the region on this run.
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That's not really been the case overall. This right here is an atmospheric block(Rex type) with a quasi-stationary vortex 'stuck' underneath a ridge, same as what we see in the NA at times(which we love in that case). It alters(splits) the flow. This isnt a particularly long lasting one as modeled.
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7 at 11pm
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10 at 8pm.
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Scattershot but there are some decent hits among the ens members for our region in the first week of Feb. There are 2-3 members that heavily contribute to the Central VA jack(mostly 1 lol)
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A bit of banter but it's a slow period. I was bored at work today so I read through the 1/6 storm obs thread- I needed sleep that night so from about 11pm to 5am I was out. Slept through the beginning of the storm. Anyway reliving it a bit I wanted to look at H5 again. Damn that was a really impressive h5 look, and pretty characteristic of some of our major snow events historically. The vortex part of the block was extreme and displaced southward from ideal, which limited potential somewhat, esp for the northern parts of our region.
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Yep. we need some vorticity to eject eastward underneath, but if the mutha load comes out, pretty risky with a +NAO.
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Pretty good outcome at this range. Just one op run. With no help in the NA we gonna need some good timing.
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Well, it moved lol
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Some crazy cold HP. Might be a bit much but its on the move with no blocking to speak of.
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Hard to be mad, but if we just had more typical below avg temps this week with the true arctic cold/ HP just to our north, we would have been getting the snow instead of the deep deep south.
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He is referring to the snowfall prediction contest for this winter. I think. I didn't participate but I am guessing most were on the low side, so yeah probably good.
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There are some misconceptions about this and what is 'good' or 'bad'. It isn't that simple. There are also 2 Pacific Jets- The NPAC jet is a part of the Polar Jetstream, and what is often referred to as simply the Pacific jet is part of the Subtropical jet. (there is both a Polar and a subtropical jet in each hemisphere) The STJ is usually quite weak/retracted in a Nina while the Polar jet is predominant, and in a Nino the STJ becomes more prominent and tends to be extended and located further south. That's what gives us the active storm track across the southern US. There are also 'degrees' of retraction/extension with both jets. In general a jet with an extended core of stronger winds favors a ridge in the western US (+PNA), and retractions favor a -PNA.
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High of 17. 2 straight days in the mid to upper teens doesnt happen too often. With clear skies tonight, should get down around 5.
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Yeah it had a pretty nice look at h5 and the surface for the very end of the month, close to the same window as the AI storm.
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Yeah cloudy here all night. Only a low of 11.
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For early next week- probably not a high probability at this point but there is still enough uncertainty to keep an eye on it. The wave timing and degree of interaction between energy ejecting eastward from the southwest, and NS energy riding overtop the ridge and dropping southward is probably not going to be exactly correct as currently modeled. On current runs(GFS here) the NS vorticity digs down right overtop the southern energy and it shears out and then gets kicked off the coast with only weak surface development/precip in the mid south and a bit of snow in KY and TN on the northern edge.
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First things first. Early next week is still on the table with some energy ejecting out of the SW. No way to know at this point how exactly the NS energy will interact. GEFS suggests some potential exists.
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Yeah I keep waiting for someone to prove the earth isn't a sphere. Seems really flat when I look out my window.
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Best chance for a dusting or a bit more will be the immediate coast- Rehoboth to OC. The rest of us will have a virga storm with a few flakes making it to the ground in some places.
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18 currently, which is the high for the day.
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We know you don't care about the science. All you crave is model generated digital blue over your yard every run, and become performative when you don't get it.
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The Canadians have some minor accumulations too. I made a post or 2 about this days ago in the other thread, but its just weaker than it could have been. UL energy moving east underneath a strong jet streak at 300 mb. Good lift but dry air/not much moisture available.
