CAPE

My snow was washed away. I never cared about yours.

Wind driven snow showers when I left the house with a temp of 33. Rain total 1.16" and the temp rose to a high of 47 overnight.

General thoughts on the upcoming period from Mount Holly.. For Friday through Sunday...As the aformentioned upper-level trough continues to amplify its way into the East, our sensible weather will first be dominated by arctic high pressure centered across southeastern Canada and New England. A rather cold air mass is forecast to be in place, however incoming upper-level energy looks to initiate a wave along an offshore baroclinic zone. There is typically more uncertainty especially the details and timing this far out, however the overall pattern looks to favor some sort of cyclogenesis near or offshore of the East Coast over the weekend. We continue to maintain some chance PoPs for now in the Friday through Saturday time frame, however some guidance is slower with the storm development and delays it until Sunday.

They led the league in penalties I believe, and had 14 in this game. That makes it kinda hard to win, despite the talent. Never feel sorry for a Cowboy fan.

What a dull, boring ass coach. Was a 'safe' hire I guess. Yeah he gone.

Skippy Bayless guaranteed HIS Cowboys would win this one.

No idea.

LOL SF tried to give it away.

how bout dem cowboys?

1/3/22- 9.5" 1/7/22- 3.2" 1/16/22- 0.8" Total: 13.5"

33 and rain! Overall did better than I expected. A little padding for the snow total.

30.5 and freezing rain, although I don't think icing is going to be an issue here. Should be above freezing in another hour or so.

That's a function of the highly amplified (and progressive) pattern. Anticyclonic wave breaking is going to send chunks of the TPV southward, and timing is everything. Its volatile. Then when those vortices rotate out and up into the NA, wave breaking can induce a big transient ridge in the NAO space. That was a radical ass GFS run. Turbulent flow on the largest scale. Love it. Buckle up!

Big flakes with sleet mixed in here now. Temp holding at 29. About 3/4" of frozen stuff.

Verbatim that run had a nice snowstorm with some deep winter after.

Yeah and it shows the range of possibilities in this pattern. A coastal hugger/inland track is even on the table with the progressive flow and so much NS energy digging.

Mount Holly didn't get the forecast quite right here lol. Yeah it might be 39 before midnight but the afternoon/evening forecast is busted... This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. East wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Moderate snow with sleet mixed in now.

I think the GFS is all alone with the sneaky Thursday wave but it has been persistent.

We just can't know. Kinda fun.

About a half inch of snow and still snowing. Temp holding at 29. Those yellow/orange radar returns on the SW doorstep are either really heavy snow or sleet. I will bet on the latter lol.

With all the vorts flying around in the NS and digging south I am not sure it matters. The GFS almost got it done at 12z with a sw dropping in over top the western ridge and left most of that southwest energy behind. It's active and difficult to know what piece(s) of energy end up being 'the ones' at this juncture.