CAPE

Bipolar HRRR looks relatively decent at 0z for anyone who actually cares. I'm sure it will look shit in another hour.

43. Moon looks cool.

Not sure why y'all pay any mind to LR op runs. GEFS looks pretty cold next week. Moisture is yet to be determined. Looks like offshore low development is still favored in general.

Going with an inch max for my yard, given these anafrontal deals are precarious at best with cold chasing precip. Models tend to overdo the frozen. If there is some decent Fgen as some guidance is depicting, then maybe there is a chance for an 'overperformer' here.

Yes that will bring it back. Reverse jinx.

So this is THE storm now.

6z GFS was bad enough, but the GEFS wouldn't even tempt me to travel to Rehoboth.

Hopefully this weekend works out, but mid to late next week still looks quite interesting on the means.

We are getting into the critical time period for any meaningful changes to occur. Fighting progressive flow, a positively tilted trough, and the shortwave lacks sharpness as it moves east. Euro had a sharper/deeper sw with a more neutral orientation on approach but has moved away from that in the last few runs. Ensembles all look at tad better with NW extent of precip than the ops but still a clear signal for an offshore low. Not making any predictions, but favoring a trip to the Beach to see some snow this weekend at this point.

The braided look on the WB ICON h5 vorticity panels is a neat effect.

An inch, maybe 2 still looks like a reasonable expectation to me.

Jb 93 storm finally Ens mean says any snow falling during that period will be for the fish. Get a boat and chase 500 miles east of OC?

Mount Holly thoughts- basically stay tuned, we just cant know yet. Friday night into Saturday, a wave diving southeast out of central Canada will round the base of the long wave trough axis and head east. As the mid-level wave exits the east coast of the United States surface low pressure is forecast to form off of the NC coast. The latest run of the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC have the low offshore, but confidence is low here. It should also be noted that the energy responsible for the surface cyclogenesis is still across northern Alaska, meaning a lot can change. Have gone ahead and kept PoPs in the chance range at this point.

The Euro digs the NS sw more and involves most of the ss energy, while the GFS leaves it behind and has a following ss wave. The lead wave ends up flat/ damped as it moves east, and the following energy is also weak, and neither are able to induce a strong enough surface low very close to the coast. CMC is kinda interesting in that it is pretty much in between, with a decently sharp sw, but it is very positively tilted/progressive, and the outcome is actually worse than the GFS. 12z Euro moved more towards a further offshore developing low, but is still decent for eastern areas. Next few runs will be telling.

The main NS shortwave on the HH GFS is not quite as flat/strung out this run. Slight improvement, but ground truth is pretty much the same. Still has that follow up piece that also doesn't do much, and I as I said earlier, I kinda doubt it plays out like this. Just my opinion.

It might be completely wrong, but the Euro depiction seems reasonable given the amplification of the longwave pattern and the zone of baroclinicity just offshore. I don't agree with anything close to a KU with the progressive flow, but a significant snowstorm for at least parts of the MA matches the pattern.

There have been some hints of a bit more of a wave, best seen on 850 mb vort panels, as the front progresses south on some guidance. If that happens and the precip is more robust in the colder air then maybe. Might even be a bit south of here. Outside of that I can't see this producing more than an inch or 2 anywhere.

It only goes out to hour 90 and looks pretty much the same.

These little events with cold coming in and forcing along the front are always "fun" to track. The majority of the time the cold comes in as the precip is winding down. Snow in the air to maybe an inch looks reasonable as depicted.

Heading into the middle of next week, as the trough lifts a bit the GEFS develops a bit of a -NAO, and still looks active down south.

GFS also brings the leftover energy through and tries to pop another coastal but largely fails again. No idea how this turns out, but (intuitively) I think the GFS is still figuring it out.

GFS and Euro still worlds apart at h5 for the weekend. CMC is sort of in between but closer to the GFS, as they both dampen the shortwave as it moves east.

Agree. Go with a full sized bun and a proper piece of meat.