CAPE

For all the talk of can kicking, this is a pretty good look right here, and there are hints on the ops and ens runs of a modest wave or 2 tracking along the boundary during the Jan 1-5 window. Just need that boundary to be far enough south.

Read the thread I posted, then dig a bit more into the teleconnections if you want to learn more about the pattern drivers. There are legit reasons behind the model 'can kicking'.

Good thread from griteater on the pattern progression wrt AAM and MJO.

But the GFS gave you digital snow.

High of 38 here. Currently 31 at just after 5pm.

Good way to describe it. And why would we expect that not to be the case lol. Never easy, esp in a Nina.

Latest edition of the weeklies looking good into mid Jan.

Yeah something to monitor. The Canadian ens and Euro ext have it approaching/barely making it to phase 8 then into the COD. In the case of the Euro X it takes a while to get there- around mid month- which makes sense given the Euro gets stuck in phase 7.

Latest CFS forecast looks okay.

Its effed up. I looked this morning and it just had the gray and no lines plotted. The latest Euro forecast seems to get stuck in phase 7 for a while.

Im gonna pretend that is snow cover Got some work to do. At least the model is indicating a chance of frozen southward in the LR. We got nothing for the next week at least.

EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run.

Low of 22

Steelers

And even if they would have made it, Rodgers gets the ball back in regulation with probably 40 seconds left and 2 timeouts only needing a FG to win. This one really made no sense.

And again the play design was dumb. A rollout to Andrews with not much space. There were no other receiver options on the play unless Huntley reversed and ran back the other way in which case he would probably have been sacked.

Taking the FG on the first drive might have helped too.

18z GEFS is back to looking more like the EPS in the EPO domain for early Jan.

EPS looks better up top than previous runs. I hope Weather Will doesn't panic because it doesn't yet have blue over us on this panel, and it did previously.

We(collectively) tend to pay too much attention to the advertised LR pattern/teleconnections when we are currently in a shutout pattern, esp when it offers some promise of better times. Can't get to focused on the details when we are looking at guidance 10+ days out.

Need to watch the 'trends' on the means with the Pacific ridge in the LR. Really want that more poleward (-EPO) rather than a broad, flat ridge further south/west, otherwise it might be tough to get cold air bleeding southeastward without a hella west based -NAO. The GEFS has moved in that direction, although it seems to shift the ridge northward right at the end of the run. That's the primary reason for it delaying the eastward progression of cold, but the -NAO is also less impressive the last couple runs. Really need that to be stout if the Pac isn't going to be at least somewhat favorable.

Not a huge fan of Heavy Seas in general, but the Double Cannon DIPA is a goodie. Nice balance of hops and malt, a bit creamy, very drinkable. The 9.5% abv is very well hidden.

Now if you had said the -EPO has faded on the last couple runs of the GEFS, I might agree.

Judah knows his shit. He always claims victory, one way or another. Pinned that baby!