CAPE

Boom

The folks around Winchester who were ready to bail are now saying 'this baby is right where we want it'.

Nice synopsis by Mount Holly this morning- In the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis, with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi- cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.

Better.

We get snow in "flawed" patterns plenty of times. I have probably made more posts than anyone about the issues with this pattern, but the guidance also has problems with resolving all the subtle interactions and timing among the key features in an amped pattern with progressive flow at range. What they are depicting now is a simulation of the outcome, with some degree of uncertainty. I would give it until Tuesday at least.

Most here know the deal with this pattern dude. But this is the reality- many patterns 'aren't great' here and it is pretty typical for all the stars to have to align for snow to occur regardless. This region is pretty diverse geographically and climatologically. There is a better chance for eastern areas as it looks now, but with still 5+ days to go and a lot of moving parts, probably premature to throw in the towel anywhere yet.

Looking forward to tonight's game. As for the 49ers, I give them a legit shot. They are a tough bunch and have a really good coach.

Good for Stafford.

WOW.

Damn. Clutch.

Stafford will throw a pick-6 to end it lol.

This is gonna go to overtime now. Brady time. Rams O choked bigtime.

LOL the Rams. More like Lambs.

Might have been one other run that looked about the same. But at this juncture, this is a good sign.

Looks good for a trip to Rehoboth. I don't mind a bit of a chase. Whatever it takes. Like, 220, 221.

HH GEFS is the beginning.

From Mount Holly afternoon AFD- For the most part, the last several runs of models have overall kept the storm offshore, but there have been a few runs, including the 12Z CMC, that bring it much closer to the coast with the potential for significant impacts. While chances are increasing that a storm will develop next weekend, it remains to be seen exactly where it will be. It will take some time over the next couple of days for the models to pick up on the details that will show whether it will track offshore or closer to the coast.

This loss is not squarely on his shoulders. But GB has been a top seed/favorite multiple times and managed to lose. Great QBs are expected to make great plays in the moment, at key points in the game- to make the difference. His performance last night was pretty pedestrian. Ofc he cannot be blamed for a missed FG and a blocked punt, but the bottom line is their high powered offense was held to 10 points at home.

lol @ one last chance before the February torch. They make it sound like they actually know something.

It would be nice for something to 'pan out' before the month is over. The first week of Jan was pretty epic here, but other than the 0.8" of snow before the driving rain last Sunday, its been generally cold here but not much else. I'll take a bookend.

Mount Holly this morning...yes, we have a period to watch, lol. The pattern becomes more interesting/complicated to close the week, as a high-amplitude, positively-tilted trough moves into the eastern third-to-half of the country. A digging vort max near the base of the trough will encourage strong downstream ridging in the western Atlantic and cyclogenesis near or just off the Southeast coast. Meanwhile, a front attendant to the trough should shift southeastward across the Northeast. Exactly how these features evolve will be critical in the forecast track of the rapidly deepening low off the Atlantic coast during the weekend. Models have trended farther offshore (in general) during the past 24 hours and are in reasonably decent agreement for this time range. However, the causal mechanisms for the development of this storm are of low predictability in general, and their interactions are extremely sensitive to processes not well resolved at this time range. Thus, the offshore trend should probably be taken cautiously at this time. Bottom line is this will be a time period to watch, as the ocean storm remains close enough for potential winter- and marine-weather impacts.

Give SF credit for going there in that weather and playing a gutty game, but for as good as he is, Rodgers tends to come up small at times when it counts the most. Not a great record in the playoffs esp since winning the Superbowl, which was awhile ago now.