CAPE

3" here for April, but almost all of that fell the first 4 days of the month. Soil here is well drained, mostly silt and sand. This time of year it can get dry pretty quickly. Even though it was super wet with high water table a month ago, that rapidly changes with longer/warmer days and increase in transpiration underway, and enhanced by a dry spell. All that said, it would probably take another couple weeks of little to no rain to reach 'abnormally dry' category.

Any significant rain chances are probably a week away(which would be May 1st), when HP along the east coast breaks down and a front associated with LP tracking across the GLs gets closer.

I ran the sprinkler yesterday evening. Maybe a tenth of an inch over the last 20 days.

35. Mt Holly expanded the Frost advisory last evening. Saw some spotty frost driving in but the air is pretty dry.

It's unlikely to marginal for a freeze anywhere east of the mountains. Frost in some spots, maybe. I noticed Mt Holly has frost advisories in effect tonight where temps are forecast to fall to 36, with 'patchy frost' wording in those areas. No advisories last night, and here it was 36 with patchy frost lol. Tonight no advisory again here, with a forecast low of 37. Not sure what the actual criteria is.

36 with some patchy frost.

Nice. I have been outside working on the plant beds and its perfect. No wind, no sun, dry, and 50 degrees. I know some want 80s and humid but eff that shit, too early. We get that for 5-6 months as it is.

CanSIPS h5 look suggests late Dec into early Jan and again in late winter will offer chances for colder airmasses in the central/eastern US mostly via the NE Pac ridge shifting into the EPO domain. Recent Ninas have featured such favorable periods for cold/snow in the MA, within the overall unfavorable h5 pattern for DJFM- in particular 2016-17, 17-18, and 21-22.

.07" overnight. Most rain here since the first few days of the month.

I asked Copilot "how are you more helpful than using Google". It basically told me it was a shill for Microsoft and it used Bing lol.

Just another mid summer, mid April day here. High of 82. No sign of any rain.

Soil has gotten dry here too. The seasonal wetland is shrinking some, so I can't complain about that.

Begins in April now. Wasps already building nests. Been catching carpenter bees in the traps for a week now. That used to be an early May thing.

Yeah this isn't new. Thank Elon.

Brutal pitching the first 2 games of this series. Hopefully Burnes is sharp against his old team, and the offense gets it going early.

The Orioles starting pitching looks shaky. Not too surprising. Additions will be needed at some point. Burnes needs to be the stopper today.

Os also need to get Kjerstad on the roster. It's kind of now or never- dude is killing the ball and he is 25.

Boring.

Important signing imo, especially after losing Clowney. Maybe Oweh and/or Ojabo develop into a legit pass rusher, but can't count on it at this point, and Van Noy is also a great teammate and mentor.

Brief line of uneventful showers just came through here, and now blue skies and sun! Seems like forever lol.

Surprised to see a tornado watch over here. With a temp of 50, socked in with clouds and light rain, clearly the warm front is still to the south. Remains to be seen if this marine airmass will budge. Up to 2.42" for the event. Ditches overflowing and lot of water lying around in low areas.

Been pouring in Easton and looking at radar, at my house too. Tapering off now. I was at 1.68" early this morning. Gotta be well over 2" now. A couple more rounds to go if the mesos are correct.

From Mount Holly AFD early this morning- Strong warm advection/isentropic lift and elevated instability will contribute to several rounds of showers, heavy at times, during the bulk of Wednesday as warm front moves northward aloft. That part is key...surface warm front, by contrast, looks likely to end up pretty stuck across the southern Delmarva through Wednesday. It may creep north slightly, but right now the I-95 corridor and points north still look most likely to stay in the relative cool sector, with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. Meanwhile, south of the front, highs surge into the 60s across southern Delaware and the lower eastern shore of Maryland. And this is what could make things more interesting in terms of severe potential as we get into the afternoon and early evening period as the triple-point low develops just to our southwest and tracks along the stalled front into the Delmarva and eventually far southern NJ.Depending on available instability, this could be a focal point for severe weather thanks to the enhanced shear along the warm front. SPC has placed a slight risk of severe weather across our extreme southernmost zones for Wednesday with the MARGINAL risk for severe weather extending a bit farther north through the remainder of Delmarva and then extending east through southern most NJ. Given the very strong shear, forcing, and "thick" CAPE values near 700 mb the set up could result in elevated supercells. Large hail and damaging winds look to be the biggest threats but we can`t rule out one or two tornadoes over southern Delmarva where there will be more in the way of surface instability.

0.84" today, mostly from the t-storms that moved through this morning. 1.66" total

0.82" from round one.