CAPE

This has been/will be an uphill battle. There is more bad with this setup than good. We can say that for a lot of events, but removing the weenie glasses this has mostly always looked too warm in front and too progressive, save for a few op runs here and there. Maybe the latest Euro is on to something (again?) lol. I doubt it. I think at best its a brief period of snow/ snow showers depending on the timing of the cold with the ass end of the wave along the front. We know how that usually works despite what guidance might suggest.

HH GFS has my yard as the east of the mountains jackpot! Sorry @Weather WillI couldn't resist.

My take on today's event specifically is it was simply a bad setup for our latitude. The lower levels were complete crap with with really no mechanism for colder or drier air to advect in for any significant cooling. Most guidance had just about all locations wet bulbing above freezing. Dynamic cooling gets talked up a lot but it cant work miracles, and in this instance we would have needed some hella rates for a long duration to get it done even in areas with some elevation. Just because a low tracks along/off the coast to our south doesn't mean we snow simply because temps are marginal and "should cool" enough.

Raw wet day. 0.72" Current temp is 40.

I am totally content with this winter honestly. January was about as good as it can get here, so even though December was a snowless torch( the usual) and February was nearly snowless, I exceeded the the long term annual mean, and it all fell during the best month climatologically for combo of cold and snow and low sun angle. The pattern was generally cold and the snow stayed around awhile too.

The western highlands are the place to be (locally) for snow this weekend.

Just about time to deactivate my WB account until next December. it's been real.

Yeah there really isn't a need to start another thread. The Saturday threat, such that it is, is the only game in town here at this point.

Probably should at this point, so we can focus on the next threat in the LR, except there isn't one. Looks a lot like Spring on the ens means.

38 with a soaking rain here this morning. 0.35" so far.

The recent trends across guidance are in the wrong direction. The wave(s) of interest will form along/ahead of the front, but recent runs of the globals are delaying the progression of the trough a bit, so the low pressure track is further west, thus warmer aloft and at the surface for much of our region while precip is falling as the cold is delayed. The general outcome that had been advertised before the more recent 'trend to better' was almost all of the precip falling ahead of the front in the warm sector. Lets see where we go from here. In general the further NW, the better if you want to see some significant snow.

CMC has been the least snowiest, and HH GFS resembles that depiction at the surface, but not quite as shitty. Any guesses how the next couple runs of the Euro will trend?

I was expecting this post lol.

Cold, dry wind following warm, wet rain. Well that's the most likely outcome.

C'mon dude, Carroll County is the northern hinterlands. Way up north. With mountains and stuff.

12z Euro is better.

Maybe next winter we can have a rule about bombarding the LR thread with snow maps every model cycle. They should be reserved for discrete storm threat threads imo. We had a thread for posting digital snow maps, but I guess it never got pinned.

0z Euro is also earlier and cleaner with phasing, and develops a sharper trough. Not as progressive, and that gives a low developing along the front more of a chance as the cold comes in. Maybe a bit of a trend here. CMC still not quite onboard.

And I didn't say I was rooting for a drought in winter, but somehow that was your take.

Early to mid March I would agree, at least in recent years. The end of March and into the second week of April.. maybe head to Canaan, or Maine.

You were talking like you get snow in your yard on the reg into the second week in April. The years I spent up there late March and early April were not at all memorable for winter weather. Ofc you might be the only one here who cares about a random wet snow shower at that point lol. I am sure the GFS will be there to tease you with the possibilities, maybe into May!

HH GFS with a sharper shortwave and a bit more in the way of snow as the cold comes in Saturday. GFS is 'noisy' the last several runs if nothing else.

They aren't very useful at range, and we sure don't need to see every d7-10 snow map from every op and ens run posted. That gets pretty tiresome. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think in the context of the Wed event, she meant that the snow maps verbatim aren't very useful with such marginal surface temps and likely low ratios. I made a post about that myself.