CAPE

Picked up 0.35" from a localized cell that moved through early this morning. Heard one rumble of thunder.

I am good with a decaying feature moving through. Eff damaging winds, but some solid rain with T&L would be cool.

Morning take from Mount Holly on the MCS- We continue to monitor the chances for a decaying MCS that guidance has persistently been forecasting to transition from from the Midwest and across the Great Lakes towards the East Coast. With many environmental factors present to support such a system, it really comes down to where today`s cold front stalls. Should it stay further north and stall over our region to just north of our region, then the MCS would likely ride along the boundary around the expansive ridge to our southwest. If the deepening and closed 500 mb low over the Saint Lawrence River shifts further southwest, then the high over Ontario will push the continental airmass further south and take the front cleanly through our area. There is actually pretty decent spatial agreement as of this morning with the GFS, NAM, EC, and Canadian taking the MCS across Pennsylvania from northwest to southeast and into the Delmarva Peninsula. Best chances are probably across the northern Chesapeake Bay region around Baltimore to northeastern Maryland and norther Delaware. On the other hand, there remains poorer agreement temporally- speaking. Timing of this system remains difficult to iron out given that the thunderstorm complex is just now forming over portions of South Dakota. The GFS remains the fastest of the model spread, bringing the system through around 8 am tomorrow, whereas the others bring it in around noon to the very early afternoon. While all severe hazards can come into play with these systems, damaging straight-line winds is the greatest threat. Forecast sounding suggest dry air entrainment should support healthy cold pool maintenance, which should balance well with low-level shear. The more optimal the balance between these two, the greater the longevity of the system. With the forecast taking the system around the northeastern flank of a broad zone of 4000 to 5000 J/kg of MUCAPE, there shouldn`t be any problem in the way of lifting, it`s just how well it is maintained today across the Midwest. A quick look at the current cloud cover on satellite suggests the relatively clear conditions should foster a supportive future for the feature today.

The heavy rain in the forecast for here looks like a bust. All too familiar look to the radar. Mesos look very meh for later today too. Going to have to do some watering today.

Touched 70 here briefly when the sun broke through a bit. Warm front will be moving northward towards morning with decent increase in PW esp I-95 and east. Should be some heavy showers/storms moving through in the AM.

Interesting read from the afternoon AFD from Mount Holly.. Unsettled weather on tap for the short term period. Surface high pressure will be over the eastern Atlantic Saturday night, and the area will be in between return flow behind the high and a warm front lifting north as low pressure tracks from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada. A mid-level trough with a strong shortwave will dig down through the Appalachians late Saturday night, and the base of the trough will cross the Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Sunday morning. An area of showers and possible thunderstorms will develop late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with a focus on Delmarva. 12Z/10 NAM indicating between 500 and 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE as surface temperatures rise into the mid and upper 60s and surface dew points rise into the low to mid 60s. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be from 35 to 40 kt. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, and cannot even rule out a couple of stronger storms with some locally heavy rain. A second round of showers and thunderstorms will develop Sunday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches from the west. A warm and humid airmass will spread into the region Sunday behind the earlier warm front. Surface-based CAPE values will be upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, MUCAPE values will be over 1500 J/kg, and 0-6 km Bulk shear will be upwards of 55 to 60 kt. PWATs will be over 1.5 inches. Bottom line is that a severe weather and possible flash flooding event is becoming likely Sunday afternoon and evening. Followed NBM guidance for PoPs and ramped up to categorical and likely for the area.

A couple rounds of storms now look possible for Sunday. Marginally severe maybe.

Sunday is now looking like the more 'interesting' weekend day weather-wise as compared to a few days ago.

Another damn near perfect summer day. 76/52 currently

This product is usually dead on with my rain gauge. Zoom way in and you can click on your house and it will display the amount. It has 0.51" over my yard for the past 24 hours, and my gauge is reading 0.50". https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

Looking at the Hi res US rainfall map, the jack zone was eastern half of Howard county, through Baltimore City, Aberdeen, and NE towards Elkton. 1.5 - 3"+ amounts.

Exactly a half inch here. As crappy as the radar looked for my yard when I went to bed, lucky to get that much.

Only a tenth of an inch for the month here, and looks like tonight is going to be pretty scattered over this way with the showers, so will need some luck. In that betwixt and between groove here lately.

Nothing here last night, and I tend to agree about tonight. With that low track we will be on the 'unstable' side with some juice, but bad timing for surface based instability. Looks more hit or miss in our area with the heavier showers/storms, while the better dynamics/forcing for more widespread rain pass further north closer to the low track.

Slight risk of excessive rain for parts of the region. I get their reasoning on the location, but given the advertised track of the shortwave/developing low, the more widespread moderate to heavy rain looks to be north. Places within in the highlighted slight risk area would appear to also have a higher chance of seeing little to no rain with convection being more scattered.

Scored a hundredth here! Getting pretty dry here all of a sudden. Despite watering, the grass is doing its usual thing. Peak lawn is always right at the end of May.

Snippet from Mount Holly AFD this morning- Things get potentially more interesting for Wednesday night. A new area of low pressure looks to take shape over the midwestern states along the lingering frontal boundary. This will then deepen as it moves northeast towards eastern PA through Wednesday night. There are still model differences regarding the strength and track of this system but the general trend appears to be towards a stronger system . Both the GEM Reg and especially the GFS depict a robust shortwave driving this system as it eventually takes on a neutral to negative tilt by early Thursday. The system will be accompanied by widespread showers and storms by late Wednesday evening through the overnight and this could actually come through in multiple rounds. And in fact we have concerns for both the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall with an associated flood/flash flood risk. This is because strengthening low moving right near the area could result in deep layer shear increasing to 40 to 50 knots. In addition both the GFS and GEM depict a strong LLJ at 850 mb advecting in PWATs of around 2 inches with this LLJ also helping to aid in increased low level shear. It is still too early to be confident in exactly how this will evolve as, along with the uncertainty regarding the strength of the system, a potentially limiting factor will be the timing during the overnight during the diurnal min of instability. Even so though, the strong low level warm and moist advection could still result in at least several hundred j/kg of CAPE which may be enough given the strong dynamics and shear.

50 here this morning. A bit Fall-like.

71 with a dp of 48 and a nice breeze out of the east. Perfect out there.

Yep, at this range there is plenty of uncertainty with exact location of the front, timing of disturbances etc.

58 this morning. Very nice out.

Should be some active periods going forward with this general pattern. Disturbances in the flow and fronts nearby combined with surface heating will be triggers.

Need to watch this shortwave digging S and E under that closed upper low over eastern Canada Wed into Thursday. For now, as depicted it's probably a bit too far north for our area.

No signs of big/prolonged heat over the next 10 days or so. This h5 pattern should generally keep temps close to normal. Should also see some shower/storm chances with disturbances and associated fronts moving through.