CAPE

I suppose "delayed" in the sense that we won't have a more favorable pattern in place until later than guidance was previously suggesting. But you are right, we won't be getting that same pattern, because there was significant model simulation error in the interaction between important features that resulted in that outcome. That happens a lot in the LR, as we all know.

I have said this before, but in recent ENSO neutral/Nina/weak ass Nino winters, since 2016, the -NAO periods(mostly bootleg) have generally been too marginal (with stale/ Pacific origin cold) to get it to snow in the MA lowlands. Best outcomes have been in more progressive patterns during periods where the PAC was more favorable, mostly -EPO, with real deal cold air delivery. More of a thread the needle situation but it seems to work out better esp in a Nina. Need cold first! HL blocking during a CP moderate Nino has been gold- maybe we get that combo next winter, and we can see if that still works.

The Pacific is always a battle, but I also don't like the look of the NAO on the latest runs. It seems to evolve from a full lat ridge resulting from the western trough, then it tilts neg into GL, but it isn't so much a ridge at that point as it is a blob of higher +heights sitting there. Looking at the height lines they look flat, with little indication of a true -NAO dipole as we were seeing on previous runs, and ofc the TPV has exited stage left. As for getting legit cold air, I think it will probably have to come from a -EPO period..

I just looked at that. It might. In general the forcing looks weak regardless of phase. Not an expert on that stuff but that's gotta be better than having persistent convection near the MC.

Fwiw the GEFSX does get the h5 pattern very close to the look on the EPS, but later. Delayed not denied.

I just took a quick look at the Pacific basin on the means, centered around the 20th of Dec. Indication of more precip(convection) in the Western Pac on the EPS and GEPS, with not much going on in that region on the GEFS. The N Pacific Jet configuration on the EPS and GEPS is notably more extended than on the GEFS to my eye. This explains at least in part the differences we are seeing in the advertised h5 patterns. The base state in a Nina is usually hostile to our goals, so it's always a fight. The other problem with the latest GEFS runs is the -NAO looks a bit wonky and weaker, and if that is close to reality it won't do much to mitigate an unfavorable Pacific.

It won't happen now with Lamar out for a week or 2. Beyond that there will be 3 games left and a change might not make much difference. There will be plenty of offseason drama with this team.

The bottom line is having a mechanism for delivery of anomalous cold, especially in December. The currently advertised pattern on the EPS would get it done, as would the CMC ens(actually looks unrealistically cold given the h5 look). EPS has the best/coldest look at h5 with a -EPO/slightly +PNA from mid month onward. GEFS has improved in recent runs, but doesn't quite get the NPAC sorted- has a slightly -EPO/neutral PNA look towards D15. Root for the EPS, although as @WxUSAF said, the pattern progression it has been depicting looks more Nino than Nina, and it has trended towards the GEFS in recent weeks moving from the LR to MR.

If only he had the balls to get rid of the actual problem.

I'll wait until it actually materializes before I start getting 'concerned' it might not last. Besides, Chuck told us all a ++NAO is where it's at.

lol ninja'd

Latest edition of the Weeklies. That h5 look should bring some decent cold for the end of the month heading into Jan.

Super frosty this morning. Almost looks like a coating of snow.

22

Despite the Ravens abysmal OL performance (calling Ronnie Stanley), and the always over simplistic passing schemes and shitty play calling from Roman, Huntley was incredible under constant pressure, moving in the pocket and finding open receivers downfield. He ran when he had to. Too often Lamar chooses to run when he has options downfield.

Nice h5 look and a decent signal for a coastal storm at this range on the EPS.

For the Dec 9-10 threat, the key difference between the GFS and Euro is the position/strength of the HP over eastern Canada leading into, and during the event. At h5 there is a vortex that gets pinched off underneath between the ridge over eastern Canada and the developing NAO ridge over Greenland on the Euro that is absent on the GFS. This feature increases confluence and enhances HP at the surface, which brings colder air south ahead of the approaching wave, and forces it to track further southward with redevelopment along the coast. The vortex sort of acts as a westward displaced 50/50 low. The CMC has this feature too but further north and somewhat weaker, thus its solution is in between the GFS and Euro. Look at the difference at the surface leading in-

They aren't going anywhere with this offense, and that means Roman has to go. Changes have to be made or its more of the same, regardless of who is under center. That might include Harbaugh if he persists with the typical loyalty to shitty assistant coaches crap.

Lamar Jackson injury not season ending, "days to weeks" according to Harbaugh. Will know more tomorrow. Looks like Huntley will be starting against the Steelers, and maybe a game or 2 beyond that. I will roll with him. He is Lamar light, and possibly a more accurate passer.

Season salvaged for now. Kudos to the defense. Now we have to see how bad Lamar's injury is.

An Oweh sighting!

This season is likely toast, but please, please Stanford, take this turd off our hands lol.

The execution was terrible. I could see it coming. And why even do that? Roman is garbage.

LOL Roman. So awful. Nice punt by Proche I guess.