CAPE

Great move. Dude is the real deal. I think this also sends a message to Lamar that they are going to use the exclusive franchise tag on him unless he moves off of the fully guaranteed money demand.

We can all root for what we want, and it changes nothing. These advertised patterns are going to morph into something at least somewhat different anyway, and we will live with whatever we get. I have rooted for the patterns that are historically 'more likely' to produce meaningful snow and even when it ends up close to advertised, lately it mostly just rains here. I can think of one instance since 2016 where a legit -NAO has yielded meaningful snow imy. I'll roll the dice on a pattern that brings the cold, and risk dry or an amped cutter. There are risks for failure regardless, and some amount of timing and luck is always required

I get it but I don't try to extract that level of detail on a course LR mean that we know will change anyway. I was mostly addressing previous posts about the advertised surface temps being 'too warm' and why there are differences wrt that across the guidance in the LR at this point. The current depiction in the NAO domain is certainly better on the EPS. Personally I would like to see some legit cold get involved in the pattern given my location and the outcomes that have occurred here recently with that type of setup.

The EPS has a pretty nice look at h5 here, but not very cold at the surface. The primary difference compared to the GEFS/CMC ens at this point is less amplified EPO ridge and a weaker ridge towards the Kara sea. The TPV over northern Canada remains more poleward and associated with (stretched towards) the stronger vortex towards the Aleutians- this keeps the polar air largely contained. The bridging of those ridges helps displace the TPV more southward on the other guidance. The EPS does get colder air into the US a few days later with a weaker, more consolidated Aleutian vortex and more amplified EPO ridge.

Glad I was super busy yesterday lol. The means continue to advertise a more favorable longwave pattern to be in place beyond month, with an Aleutian low, slightly +PNA, -EPO, -AO. The North Atlantic looks at least serviceable. Realistically our next chance for a trackable threat is 10 days away. The CMC ens has had the coldest look with hints of a southward displaced TPV, and the GEFS is now suggesting that. The period around the 23rd is an interesting look, suggestive of NS waves riding overtop of the ridge/spinning off the TPV, along with energy ejecting eastward from the Baja region.

Looks like it may have drizzled a bit here overnight.

If the advertised h5 pattern is real the direct blast from the Pac firehose will be cut off and temps will cool. EPS has normal to slightly below temps reaching our region beyond the 20th. GEFS has our source region cooling significantly from what it is this week. CMC ens has an even colder look as usual.

Bengals won't be happy when they look at the game film. Their offense will be pissed off and ready to go.

ICON wins.

Ravens might have had a chance if they weren't so generous. Defense has been stout. 4 turnovers tho..

Hundley time?

Ravens are resting players today, mostly on offense, including Huntley and Dobbins. Lots of inactives. I guess they don't want to 'show' the Bengals too much lol. They will probably get a 21 point lead then pull some of their starters.

Once we lose the mechanism for direct transport of Pacific air into our nearby source region, as well as into the Western US, I think we can get back to average temps pretty quickly. It will take a little time to get cold/dry cP air into a position where it can easily influence our weather and get involved when a storm approaches.

That's possible. For now I will stay optimistic. Almost all of the extended guidance indicates some persistence with below average temps by the end of the month and especially into early February. If it ends up another mirage, so be it.

I'll enjoy the winter we have. Perfect day to be outside doing pretty much anything.

Dawn with frost/mist on the farm field behind the property.

28 Been awhile.

On a positive note, all ensemble guidance continues to depict a pretty rapid transition to a more favorable h5 pattern just beyond mid month. We reload and try again.

It's not going to be easy to get favorable 'trends' for a better outcome at our latitude outside of the higher terrain. The entire continental US and much of Canada is flooded with a mix of mP/mT air. Locate the cP air. TPV lobes are too poleward and transient 50-50 lows won't do much good in this case as even that 'cold' there in eastern Canada is not very cold.

Ofc because NWS will rarely completely disregard the GFS and when it is the lone consistently snowy or colder model it never wins. And it lost again lol.

My forecast has the generic rain/snow with a half inch or less.

Quite the detailed disco from Mount Holly on this weak little pos system that is our best hope for snow to this point and going forward(sadly). We talking.. Dynamic cooling. Snippet from the afternoon AFD- An initially cool and dry airmass in place across the area will be overtaken by weak warm advection into Sunday evening as heights begin to fall and broad upper diffluence spreads over the area. Light precipitation is expected to spread into the region during the evening hours, generally from southwest to northeast. Given the subtle and broad forcing mechanisms and marginal thermal profiles with this system, confidence remains fairly low on exactly how the precipitation types (rain or snow) and amounts will evolve. That being said, current indications in the guidance are that there will be a period of snow across portions of the area, especially at the onset of precipitation before the warm advection begins switching the precip type over to mostly rain from south to north into the urban corridor. Precipitation is currently expected to start mainly as light snow near the Philly metro and mainly as light rain farther south across a line from near Kent Island to Dover to Cape May. However, if any banding or stronger intensity of precipitation occurs to the south, some will probably snow mix in early in the event farther to the south near the aforementioned line due to dynamic cooling. The thermal profiles will support a rain or snow precip type, and little to no sleet or freezing rain is expected. The precipitation may come in two waves, first during the evening and a second overnight during the predawn hours. In any case, the thermal profiles will begin to support mainly rain in the Philly metro and south with rain and snow possible farther north into the early morning hours. Although again, any heavier/banded precip that develops could change rain back over to snow due to dynamic cooling. This could lower surface temperatures just enough for additional light accumulation in grassy and elevated surfaces. North of the Philly metro and I-95 corridor, and especially north of I-78, the biggest question is how far north does the accumulating precipitation get. The antecedent airmass will be fairly dry, so as forcing decreases to the north, the QPF should as well. We currently have the higher QPF near the Philly metro and areas to the south generally ranging from a tenth to two tenths of an inch. We are currently forecasting less than an inch of snow for the entire forecast area for Sunday night. If more intense or banded precipitation develops near the Philly metro or areas to the north, snow duration and thus amounts may be locally higher than we currently have advertised.

Not much chance it develops until offshore. There is so much relative warmth surrounding the storm it takes that long for any notable cold on the backside to get to that point and create enough of a thermal boundary to initiate a low forming. Plus the longwave pattern is very progressive, so it's moving away as it develops.

Since the Pacific flow regime predominates with embedded ARs, a place like Truckee would be pretty good for consistent snow.

Probably modify expectations or move to a place that has a consistent mechanism for snow, even in milder patterns.