CAPE

Hard to believe, but your area has been betwixt and between a lot lately. Had 3 plowable events here last Jan alone.

Ice on the Cove (Miles River) at work. Love winter mornings.

Yes that is of utmost importance. It could be included in a discussion/debate thread on the topic in the Climate change section.

The GEFS has been remarkably consistent with the idea of tracking a wave eastward and off the coast around the 9th. I made a detailed post about the progression on Saturday and it is still pretty much the same. What has changed on the latest runs is somewhat less cold available at that time with the western trough still hanging on. Obv not the best look in the NA either, but that was always the case for this period. CMC ens also has the same general look for this timeframe. Not much else to track for now other than large scale pattern stuff.

I am actually looking forward to a week of "warm". Just hope it is mostly dry.

I like the winter I get here, but then I don't need 30-40" to be happy. If so I'd prob be depressed all the time. It's only snow ffs.

Chill man lol. I mean I don't keep detailed documentation. It literally only exists here. I did at one time years ago, but after a trashed computer and failed back up drive I didn't bother after that. I originally got the historic snowfall data back when the NCDC was a thing, all free, with long term climo data for even small towns like Denton and Centreville. eta- just under 20" here last year, all in Jan.

Only documented in the threads here. Pretty much all over the place. Off the top of my head- a bit over avg last winter, exactly median the winter before, the winter before that, well . Then another median. The 17 and 18 Nina years, one was just under median, the other close to mean. That's 6 I think lol. 2015-16 was the super (warm) Nino. Right around average. Last above avg years were 2013-14, and again in 15. Long term avg for here is 18.5".

One of the reasons last Jan was an epic month for eastern areas. 3 winter storms, all snow.

Is this one of those alternative facts?

Home>General Forecasting and Discussion>Climate Change Start new thread: DCA declining snowfall- A statistical Debate

The AO/NAO doesn't look to go hostile as the pattern improves out west. Probably stay around neutral for a time. There are some indications in the longer term of another -NAO episode. As for late developing Miller B type events, they can happen even with a block.

We have a sighting lol.

I was just looking at this period on both the GEFS and EPS. Way out there so the indications are more subtle, but there appears to be a couple chances as the boundary works southward and we chill down, with a few waves moving along in the flow. First chance, as has been discussed quite a bit, is the 8-9th, and then again around the 12th. The latter may end up being the better set-up for something wintry.

I will add a little to what you said, which was good! Confluence(and convergence) in the upper levels increases pressure at the surface. In the case of a NAO block, the presence of a somewhat stationary low near the 50-50 position maintains the confluence (and thus HP at the surface) in a very favorable position to our N/NW over Canada. We can still get transient confluence as a vortex is moving across to our north, but timing is more critical as surface HP will not be locked in place.

This seems like a passive-aggressive thing lol.

High of 32. Currently 25. Solid cold airmass for late Dec. Had a bit of snow with the front, but a bit shit that most didn't even get that, and a minor to moderate storm would have been nice. It's how we roll!

Interesting that the EPS is building +heights into the NAO domain across Greenland around the 10th, sooner than the GEFS and CMC ens, both of which have - h5 anomalies there at that point.

I have had it a couple times on tap at DFH in Rehoboth. One of the best Imperial breakfast stouts I have ever tried. The bitter dark chocolate, roasty coffee notes, the hint of maple with an incredible mouthfeel from the oatmilk, all in perfect harmony. I then bought a 4 pack to take home, but the experience from the bottle was a bit disappointing. Still good, but the flavor notes were not as well defined, and the great mouthfeel became something more on the thick and syrupy side.

Slightly + temp anomalies over much of Canada is cold enough as we move towards mid Jan. Temps in our region are below avg by the 10th verbatim on that run. Maybe look at the actual temp panels. Looks pretty cold.

Just hit 32. Still an 'Arctic' airmass feel out there, despite the moderating temps. Plenty of ice on the Choptank River between Greensboro and Denton.

It's sad. Temps thus month are solidly below average. Precip is above average and yet...no snow Bad timing and bad luck. Bad climo. So much to overcome.

That would be kinda funny if it snowed in January after the extreme December hype December is almost always a fail. Fall month here.

Latest GEFSX gets to a more favorable look sooner compared to the previous run. Most notable difference are heights building into Greenland mid month, with the TPV displaced further south. CFS doing this as well.

low of 12 here this morning.