CAPE

That is not a "suppressed" storm. It snows all the way up the coast to SNE.

lol what?

This idea isn't really new. The overall pattern on the means has looked the best for this period, with the possibility of a healthy southern wave ejecting eastward and maybe not having a NS wave eff it up this time.

Yeah 18z is slightly improved. Pretty decent signal for frozen compared to 12z.

For starters..

Another futile endeavor.

Back outside to do Spring things.

wave 6?

See what this does. WOW a HP nosing down. lol.

Waves 5 and 6 are the ones to watch.

So many potential failures, er waves. Hard to keep track.

If the GFS is correct Central NC will probably have more snow for the winter than any place east of the mountains in our area lol.

South central US. With the mean trough in the west most of the time, they get in on some cold, and frozen with the boundary nearby. Plus that area gets legit severe weather. Literally nothing else appealing about that region though.

Snowflakes flying here now. 37 and blustery.

As advertised it has more to do with getting a healthy southern wave to finally eject eastward with a quieter NS. Probably more about improvement out west/shorter wavelengths, and some luck. This hasn't been a typical period of stable, sustained blocking, where it breaks down and we get a big storm. A lot of vorts moving eastward in the NS and flow has remained progressive. That has really been effing our chances. Still have a -NAO/50-50 on this panel. Nice look if it's real. There is actually another wave behind this one. Yeah its getting awful late though.

This has looked like the best period, with significant southern energy that isn't way late developing, and without NS dominance.

Modest signal for a frontal wave on the mean, as there was at 12z. Handful of members look similar to the op(frozen), as there was at 12z. There is some support. eta- there are 8 members that have the same idea and frozen in our region. The majority are suggestive of a frontal wave.

Still looks like wave 4 is our best(last) chance.

This is one way to defeat a SE ridge. Amped up ridge out west with cross Polar flow coming straight south, and a displaced TPV. NAO is so positive that the low h5 heights are displaced into the 50-50 region. Would it still work today? Pretty unusual setup, but might be indicative of what we need going forward.

@Weather Will Impressive lol. Might take a trip to Deep Creek in the next couple weeks. Might not. Spring mode.

I'm going go check TT GEFS. It might be better!

NA blocking works better during a Nino. NS is too busy during a Nina, so the positive impacts a -NAO provides are negated to an extent.

I have cleared most of my attachments from those days but still have this one, uploaded on March 6th 2015. Temp when I took this was around 2F.

Yep this was another anomalously cold March storm. Temps here the following morning with snowpack were close to zero.

Was that the super cold St Patty's Day storm? IIRC that was the one that had some ice on the front end and temps fell into the low 20s in the morning with snow and stayed there all day. Ended up with 6-7" here.