CAPE

See my previous post on the 0z EPS vs GEFS. If you look at the MSLP anomaly on the 0z EPS the most prominent low is north of the Great lakes on March 4th.

On the 6z GEFS about half the members are mostly or all rain, the other half have at least some snow. 4 or 5 pretty big hits. Not seeing any signal for suppressed south at this point. Still plenty of uncertainty-

For that period the advertised NAO ridge position/50-50 low doesn't look suppressive to me. There are other modes of failure that are more likely, mostly stemming from our friend out west.

The NAO squashing it won't be the problem.

Correct. We can only have a feeling.

The fundamental difference between the Euro/EPS and GEFS is the former reamps the Aleutian ridge (as the NAO ridge is retrograding west) pinching off the TPV and digging a new western trough southward a bit sooner. The initial trough can't separate enough, and some of the energy within it is influenced/absorbed by the new trough. GFS/GEFS allows the initial trough to get out in front and move eastward with little to no interaction, and there is a signal for a distinct surface low moving towards the east coast. If we are gonna get screwed (again), ofc it will be the horrid pacific that will do it lol.

Close, but earlier. It was December 2009. I think I did Dec 1 to Dec 20 or something.

Technically I think it is 2/3 of a month in an epic wither.

It is a composite for a month of an epic winter.

Never fails.

That look is pretty similar to my profile pic. Any guesses?

Maybe we can end this lame winter with a bang around mid month. The pattern as advertised would be mature. We have a -AO/NAO. -EPO/WPO. Only the PNA sucks. This h5 look is pretty uniform across guidance, including the extended products.

Not hating it. we shall see. 8+ days to go?

This looks really good.

Pretty good chance, since it has been alternating between 'completely gone' and 'kinda there' for several runs now lol.

That is always a relatively uncomplicated way to get it done. This is different than the shitty pattern we have been mired in for 2 months though. Pretty close to textbook- even has a bit of a ridge out west.

I would have to agree, I mean, look how much snow we (don't) have at this point.

The 12z GEFS was hinting at this.

Given where the Euro is, this is probably not a bad thing.

The jinx isn't real. Irrational. If it were, Justin Tucker would miss a lot more kicks.

It can happen. 2018. Something like the St Patrick's day storm of 2014 (or 2015?) was very cold and not likely to occur given the character of this "winter".

Pretty similar progression from the end of recent GEFS runs. Very similar to GEFSx.

Needed a place to discuss, even as we know it will be an utter fail.

Made it to 70 here. I see bugs.

As you might imagine, not much of a signal for frozen on the EPS.