CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Interestingly, that area has done very well in recent Ninas. Jan of 17 and 18( I chased both), and again multiple times in Jan of 22. Two blizzards and 2 other storms of 10" plus. Maybe Ninos generally aren't cold enough anymore for the immediate coast, outside of a +PNA/-EPO pattern with cross polar flow.
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One coastal storm with a somewhat offshore track and some cold in place-historically pretty common in a Nino- could dump a foot or more of snow right along the coast. That 0-6" call for that area busts with a single event. Ofc that is a DC focused 'forecast', so no one would really notice or care.
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Would take a hell of a lot of concrete to overwhelm the microclimate out there lol.
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Boilerplate, generally a bit below climo across the entire region, although for DC itself that would be a good outcome. Very lazy effort. No attempt to capture subtleties/tendencies in Nino winter patterns.
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Do it
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That's how it works around here with a moderate CP Nino and strong -AO/NAO. At least it used to.
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Yeah that was a legit blizzard over here. Was hard to measure with snow still otg and all the wind, but it was well over a foot. The first 'phase' of that was a miss here.
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Maybe it was because my area got stuck in the dryslot, but 2016 storm wasn't very cold. The 2009-10 KUs all ended up with temps in the low or mid 20s here at the height of the events, although 2 had temps in the low-mid 30s right at onset. The late Jan 2010 storm was cold powder with temps in the mid teens- not a KU though.
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Yeah if you squint and ignore the colors, focus on the height lines and follow the flow(and disregard advertised surface temp anomalies), its not bad. People generally try to glean too much from these super smoothed seasonal forecast tools.
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New edition of the CanSIPS will be out in 6 days. Be interesting to see if it remains bullish with the favorable looks.
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^Ignore the colors(anomalies) and focus on the height contours and that isn't awful.
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It's a single run of the CFS. Useless, as it runs multiple times a day, and changes like the wind. TT has the average of the last 12 runs, which gives a better idea of what the model is advertising if you monitor it over a week or more. The depiction at h5 for the winter months has generally looked like crap for a while now. January-
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36. Frosty in the fields.
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How about the officials again getting involved and deciding a game with 2 highly questionable calls at the end. Cleveland wins with their help.
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Those 2 losses may come back to bite them. Both were horrific.
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We need more of this version of the Ravens offense going forward. Pretty tough schedule upcoming.
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I'll nit-pick. What's with the short kickoffs? That's 2 now.
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This Raven offense has a habit of losing their groove in the second half.
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Almost a perfect half. That fumbled exchange though. Could have been 35-0!
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Pretty nice presentation/rationale. He places significant emphasis on the output of the MEI, which I like.
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Ended up with 0.47"
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0.40". Still getting some lighter rain.
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Absolutely pouring now.
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Raining hard here now. A quick tenth. Looking at radar, doesn't look like it should last very long though.
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Lots of orange/red on the doorstep per radar. Was outside a little while ago and it felt quite cool and stable. 60 currently. Radar returns suggest there are torrential downpours occurring though.
