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CAPE

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  1. CAPE
    Just for fun, the Black Friday edition of the Euro Weeklies for late Dec, centered on Xmas.
  2. CAPE
    No rock throwing lol. Sounds impressive. Probably a bit too much detail on the analysis for 10 days out though.
  3. CAPE
    This has been a pretty persistent theme on the ens guidance for around the 5th- an OV low/coastal transfer. EPS suggests some snow for us this run.
  4. CAPE
    The exact position/strength of the NE Pac(Aleutian) low is equally important to the NA state(arguably more so), compared to a just a couple decades ago. Encouraging to see the guidance retrograding it further west and popping a PNA ridge in the long range. Last thing we want is that feature parking in the GoA or worse.
  5. CAPE
    Sea effect snow season has begun in NW Japan. Watch it pile up over the next 3 months.
  6. CAPE
    This would be a good sign heading into early winter.
  7. CAPE
    If the trends continue we might see legit below avg temps by Dec 10th.
  8. CAPE
    All 3 ensemble means have the PNA trending positive by December 7th now.
  9. CAPE
    The general idea on the latest ensemble runs is the primary storm track remains to our northwest through about December 3. Beyond that there are indications of low pressure development along/off the MA coast. We shouldn't expect to see guidance lock in on anything specific at this range, but over multiple runs there are hints from Dec 4 onward. With an active southern jet there should be chances. The advertised pattern looks seasonably chilly for the east, but not especially cold.
  10. CAPE
    These 3 panels should give everyone here a good feeling with winter a week away.
  11. CAPE
    EPS > GEFS
  12. CAPE
    EPS is colder than the GEFS for that period.
  13. CAPE
    GEFS likes the 5th for a storm. As is typical, the mean follows the op with an OV low and coastal transfer. Verbatim it's a bit warm. The 6z run had a similar evolution for that timeframe. The GoA low would be the primary issue for this period. Subject to change though this far out.
  14. CAPE
    Improvement on the GEFS over the last few model cycles. The 0z run has +h5 heights centered over Baffin, and the Pacific look is somewhat better. The exact MJO progression is likely the biggest driver of the Pacific pattern for the early/mid Dec period. The latest runs are generally weaker in phase 3, and take it into the COD before/just as it gets into phase 4.
  15. CAPE
    ^The EPS continues to indicate a much improved look in the NAO domain over the last few runs for that period. It has gone from a flat central Canada ridge- more of a Pacific puke mild look- to a pretty impressive -NAO for the first week of Dec. Still not a very a cold look with that GoA trough. My guess is the less favorable Pac will be temporary. GEPS has a ridge popping over AK towards the end of its run.
  16. CAPE
    He is focusing too much on the anomalies(pretty colors) instead of the height lines. On LR tools it's the 'general idea'. Some get it, some don't.
  17. CAPE
    lmao no chance. you do you dude. we all contribute in our own way.
  18. CAPE
  19. CAPE
    Here is the pattern progression on the Euro extended based off the 0z run, into mid Dec. Heading towards an unmitigated disaster and ultimate failure?
  20. CAPE
    It's a long range snapshot on a smoothed ens mean. Chill lol.
  21. CAPE
    There is some improvement on the 12z EPS compared to 0z in Canada/NAO domain (and to a lesser degree the NPac) for the end of the first week of met winter. We shall see which way the pattern goes beyond Dec 3- some of that answer depends on the MJO progression. It could just be a brief reshuffle and a short lived milder period before a mid month reload. Just a few more model cycles..
  22. CAPE
    The GEFS/EPS have been depicting a nice a ridge in the NAO domain over multiple runs for the very end of Nov/first few days of Dec, induced by the deep upper trough that digs south, brings the cold shot and shifts NE over eastern Canada. After the first few days of Dec it morphs into more of a Hudson Bay ridge though, as the TPV shifts north/EPO ridge breaks down. The GEPS seems to be following the same progression in the NA, just taking a few more days. The PAC is a better look at the end of the GEPS run though.
  23. CAPE
    Not directly related to our weather in the near term, but beginning later this week the longwave pattern will support cold air draining southeast from Siberia across the very warm Sea of Japan, and sea effect snow season in NW Japan will begin. Continued cold air excursions should also aid in cooing the warm pool east of Japan, and the parade of NPAC cyclones along the polar boundary will help establish the Aleutian low for winter. A persistent Aleutian low is favored in a Nino, and if that parks in a favorable location, one (positive) effect will be to help cool the waters north of Hawaii, encouraging the PDO to trend more towards neutral.
  24. CAPE
    For the first time in awhile a forecast of widespread heavy rain across the area delivered. Seems just about everywhere received at least 1.5", most places 2"+. Hopefully this occurs a few times this winter with precip of the frozen variety.
  25. CAPE
    It has been awhile. WDI?
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