CAPE
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The GEFS members run at higher resolution since the FV3 upgrade a few years ago, so they can resolve more detail than previously. The primary purpose of the ensembles is to quantify the uncertainty, which is always higher at longer range. There is general support for a 'small' system among the members, pretty much in line with the latest the op runs, but nothing like the 12z op run of yesterday. That outcome was/is pretty unlikely.
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Generally good trends in the LR wrt the longwave pattern, specifically in the NA. Continuing to see heights build into Greenland from Scandinavia. The Pacific isn't quite there yet, but that should sort itself out as the MJO progresses into the better phases.
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Clipper for mid next week is on life support on the means. Looked at the 6z GEFS members and there is some light precip on many, but no suggestion of snow east of the mountains. Without the early dig via shortwaves phasing, any surface development is relatively weak and too late, so not cold enough. Still time but the trends aren't great.
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Not sure why anyone would care too much about a seasonal tool at this point. Winter is here. We have better options for guidance at least in to Jan. Maybe beyond that you give it some consideration. Having said all that, what's wrong with it? The general h5 depiction for Feb and March look especially good.
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The flow is chaotic as hell. Good opportunity for you to sharpen your skills on upper level analysis instead of focusing on the pretty digital blue colors(or lack there of) at the surface.
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Sorry for cursing but I'm high and drinking an old fashioned. It is HH. On to the the next run!
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It's the lack of interaction between shortwaves right here that's the difference. The whole thing is fucked after that. The difference in ridge amplitude/orientation/position is negligible.
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Only a problem when temps are marginal with pathetic rates. If that's the case next week we can all enjoy snow tv. Better than nothing.
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It was around 60 the day before the early Jan storm 2 years ago. It started snowing 8 hours later, and the temp was in the mid 20s with snow falling most of the next day. Not too much of a problem.
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Just took a quick look at the 12z GEFS and EPS members. Luke warm on the idea of any snow in our region east of the mountains, with the GEFS maybe a little more enthused than the EPS. Still time!
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There are multiple candidates to choose from, and lots of interaction. This one will be fun to track lol.
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So you are concerned the snow would melt? It always does Chuck.
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Improvement on the 12z GEM. At the surface it's still not much but at least gets a bit of precip east of the mountains this run.
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We are inside 7 days and the signal for that window is getting a bit stronger. But yeah a long way to go, and it's a clipper. Not exactly our bread and butter for accumulating snow.
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what this? You know I'd lock it up.
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One big difference between this run and previous runs is better wave spacing- really allows the early week storm to function as a useful 50-50 low for the potential clipper. A ton of h5 vorticity flying around so the run to run differences shall continue for awhile.
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low of 22
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Yeah roll that look forward a few days and we might just have a pretty favorable pattern with some chances for the last 10 days of the month.
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The general look in the LR as the longwave pattern reshuffles features a TPV lobe dropping down towards Hudson Bay and the EPO going negative. This would pretty quickly replenish cold air in western/central Canada. Also continuing to see indications of a ridge building into Greenland from Scandinavia.
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Euro has a distinct sharp shortwave embedded in the flow with the trough neutral/slightly negative. GFS has the shortwave, but the trough is positively tilted as it approaches the coast. Results in some nice upslope snow for the western ridge then pops a low well off the coast as the trough goes neutral. Mostly dry for the rest of the region with downslope flow. GEM similar to the GFS.
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0z Euro with the clipper action. Verbatim an inch or 2 for the northern tier and flakes in the air for many.
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High of 37 after a low of 21. Need more days like the last 2.
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Somewhat disparate looks between the latest run of the GEFS and GEPS in the AO/NAO space at D15. Probably in part related to uncertainty with the MJO progression. Can still see hints of an h5 ridge building towards GL on the GEFS. Anyway, go Canada!
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I suppose we all have a criteria for what makes a good winter. Part of that is based on one's exact location, climo etc. I think most people here just want winter to feel like winter for the most part, including a few occasions where there is some snow otg.
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Agreed. That plus a little westward shift of the NE PAC low would set us up nicely for early Jan.
