CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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You kinda remember? 'Feels' aren't necessarily factual.
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I'd like to see the analysis. This sounds anecdotal to me.
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Love WW but he needs to tell us what he is attempting to illustrate instead of just spamming the thread with all those pretty WB panels.
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Yes a mean of 30 perturbed lower resolution members is going to look different than a single higher resolution operational run 15 days out. Besides that obvious fact, you can see the beginnings of a PNA ridge and perhaps an Aleutian trough developing on the mean.
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Roll that forward and there will be an Aleutian trough as the TPV shifts west, a neutral/+PNA as the NE Pac ridge pushes east and amplifies underneath, and the SW trough progresses across the south/central US towards the east coast. Plus we have a developing NA block. I could be wrong, but that makes some sense in a Nino with the expected shift in tropical forcing going forward. The extended tools pretty much agree, and that's the best available guidance we have based on the end of the ens runs that everyone seems so convinced has the right idea wrt the 'crappy' look.
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Multiple chances on the 12z run. Close calls verbatim.
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And the EPS extended pattern progression from that look ends up like this for the end of the month-
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^perspective Everyone take a deep breath. Its gonna snow this winter.
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I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.
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Last year was a Nina with a strong, nearly stationary NE Pac High. If that happens in a Nino then we are truly fucked and need a new hobby.
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Not the signal!! What I said was the advertised h5 look on the Pacific side has degraded on the means over the last several runs. I should probably be banned from here for this post- if I have done anything to inhibit the panic, I apologize. Please carry on..
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0.27" for this first bout of rain. Temp rose a bit overnight. Currently 50 and murky.
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Not worried about the PNA phase. It's going to vary in a Nino. The most critical index at this juncture is the AO, and we have that in our favor.
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Well yeah. It's not there by accident. A proper -NAO/50-50 low generally places HP right where we want it. That was the point.
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It's probably a bit of both(SPV state/MJO progression). My wag is we see some improvement in the advertised pattern on the means over the next several runs for the mid month+ period.
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Judah has some thoughts
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Seems to be a lot of spread among the members for mid month. On the mean the h5 look out west has certainly degraded, and the overall pattern implies very mild weather for central and eastern US. I took a look at the surface temp panels on the 0z EPS and about 23 of the 50 have below normal temps for the east. A chunk of those are well below normal.
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Op run disclaimer, but the 6z GFS setup is how it can snow with a less than ideal Pacific pattern. Pretty textbook in the NA. There have been indications on the means for something mid month. Verbatim this would take care of the PSU correlation issue and then some. This is close to an ideal surface pressure configuration, and the result of a well timed upper ridge over Greenland with an h5 vortex near the 50-50 position.
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I generally pay little to no attention to op run solutions beyond day 7 unless there is ensemble support over multiple model cycles.
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Faint signal Modest signal Strong signal Hint? Suggestion? Indication? What it's fucking saying?
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Latest GEFS and Euro MJO forecasts have the enhanced convection well into Phase 7 and approaching phase 8 at mid month.
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S I G N A L ! ! !
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I'm just glad the Mount PSU snow correlation doesn't apply to my yard.
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I mean, it is the Canadian, but there was also a hint for something on the EPS and the GEFS actually south of us.
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I noticed earlier today the GEPS has a bit of a signal for east coast snow mid month. The general look is actually pretty good with a -NAO and lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Pacific is serviceable.
