CAPE

Yeah we could have seen multiple single digit lows this week with the snow cover, but have constantly been in a pressure gradient between the vortex over the Canadian Maritimes and HP centered to our west.

Nice signal on the 0z EPS for a significant shortwave ejecting eastward from the energy in the SW. Tricky part at this point is knowing exactly where the thermal boundary will be. With the pattern shifting a bit to a more amplified EPO ridge as the -NAO breaks down, there looks be some weak ridging along the east coast with milder air for a time as the trough digs into the central US. This might be a case where frozen will be favored mostly to our west initially, with colder air coming eastward behind- then we are in a better position for a following wave with the boundary located further southeastward. Still 10 days out so plenty of possibilities.

1-2 in the forecast here. My bar is a...

Not saying this necessarily means anything, but in the regular season the Ravens blew out the Broncos, the Bills, beat the Chargers convincingly, had a loss at KC to open the season that came down to the last play, lost a game at Steelers that they literally gave away with multiple penalties, 2 turnovers inside their 30 yd line that resulted in Steeler FGs, and Tucker missed 2 very makeable FGs. Beat the Steelers soundly at home in the second matchup, and blew out the Texans. I think that's all the AFC playoff teams.

Yeah it was a pretty slim chance he would go. Justice Hill is back, and Bateman has been making some big time plays lately. Still, without the quickness and game breaking speed of Flowers, the Steeler's D has one less(major)weapon to worry about.

No. Same as your team winning or losing. Booze time either way.

Never understood the concept of having a bar for snow. So what happens if the bar isn't reached? Call a bust? Tantrum? Kick puppies? Or go to an actual bar and get hammered maybe.

Yes and earlier.

NS vorticity with a more "constructive" interaction here compare to previous run. Digs some energy in instead of it all riding overtop. Better outcome.

GFS/3km NAM combo is suggestive of 2"+ potential in some areas. Most other guidance a coating to an inch or so. My forecast has a max of 1.5". Probably about right.

Latest blend

People hitting their brakes just as they approach these snow covered stretches is what causes accidents, or them ending up in a snow bank. Exact wrong thing to do. The asshole tailgaters still doing their thing too.

9.3" Closer to a foot in Easton where I work. More than half the road I traveled to work this morning had packed snow with ice underneath, and in some cases drifts blocking one lane. Persistent wind/continued cold and the powdery nature of the snow make this an ongoing problem.

18 this morning and the wind chill is going to be a little nastier today. Been a long time since there has been a solid snowpack with persistent cold and wind in the days that follow. Have not seen the magnitude of blowing and drifting of snow across the roads like this since probably 2014.

Mount Holly's current thinking is 1-2 for my area with southern DE a bit more. An inch to freshen up the snowpack would be pretty nice.

Latest Natty blend for reference. See which way it goes after the 12z runs.

Low of 22 after a high of 31 yesterday

Read up a few posts. I thought the Euro took a step towards the GFS on its 12z run, and that it might get closer to phasing that energy in just behind the southern shortwave on the 18z run. Instead it comes in overtop, suppresses the developing southern low and kicks it off the SE coast.

My hunch was wrong. Its worse. That NS vorticity comes right over the top like a wrecking ball.

It is busy. Amplified pattern with plenty of vorticity in the flow, and intricate interactions determine the ultimate outcome for our period of interest.

You need to look at more than a snow map to understand why the modeled snowfall looks this way. Plus this is a total snow map.

Yes 12z. I think that's what I said lol.

Euro made a step towards the GFS with phasing in that last piece of NS energy earlier on the 12z run, and it was closer to something decent at the surface, but discombobulated. It takes a bigger step this run I believe.

Driving to work this morning it felt like I was transported to the northern plains somewhere lol.